i got you - prediction markets need a dedicated trading terminal + analytics dashboard to attract more volume and provide greater clarity to traders on their performance.
traders need data visualizations which are geared towards tracking prediction oriented metrics like calibration curve + brier score.
after spending months talking to prediction market traders on twitter - i built out this prototype (mock data for now since Kalshi doesn't offer auth in their API).
over the last few months i've become prediction market pilled - believing in a future where experts in topics can profit from their knowledge and a world where most people can make better decisions for their future based off of prediction market odds.
a world where someone can see the odds of a jerome powell interest rate cut and decide whether or not to buy a house. a world where someone can directly see the odds of an election and have better data on whether they should move somewhere accordingly.
(i want to work in prediction markets btw)
would love to work @Kalshi but even at a baseline think it'd be awesome if this was built for prediction market traders
@mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara
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we need TBPN for Kalshi markets
- daily review of newest and hottest markets
- guest episodes with “experts” like how @PredMTrader does it
- latest on news that affects PMs
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They’re giving out free money on Kalshi rn.
In almost every South Park episode - characters say “What the Hell?!”
Feels like the market isn’t putting this at 90¢+ because they think it’s in relation to Satan.
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I turned $12 into $400 on Kalshi last night because the market incorrectly thought he did NOT say MAGA.
Coming into the night I had $25 already on MAGA YES.
I was watching @PredMTrader’s stream and heard Kimmel say MAGA-nificent so I immediately bought another $25 YES.
BUT… then the share price started to tank until it hit 3¢ by the end of the show. I thought I was going crazy but decided to read into the Kalshi rules to find that hyphenated words like <Palestine> to <pro-Palestine> does count!
I had saw a thread by @seth_ where he broke down how a trader like @Foster live traded mistakes in Prediction Markets like this so ai know this was a real possibility.
So I looked up previous transcripts where I found the word MAGA-nificent always has a hyphen in it. That was enough for me to buy up 400 MAGA YES contracts for $12 at 3¢ per share.
That $12 position turned into $400. I only made this trade because I was tuned into @PredMTrader’s live stream and read previous threads from @seth_ and @Foster. I’m super bullish on PMs for this exact reason. The community isn’t afraid to share their methods on X on stuff like this.
recap of my kalshi positions and trades this week:
PnL: -$25 (5% on my total portfolio)
1. Fed Rate Cut: I took a $50 position YES on cut 25bps which paid out $5. BUT based off a Twitter thread I saw of a last minute six figure position on Yes >25bps I took $5 on that which cancelled out my total Fed Rate Cut winning.
2. UEFA Champions League: Took $25 to win $66 on Barcelona vs Newcastle which paid out. But also took $30 on Napoli vs Man City so total won $36 on this category.
3. Miami vs Buffalo game: Took $25 on no for Buffalo wins >12.5 points which paid $45. I also took $25 on the under 50.5 which lost. So +$20 on this category.
4. Big loser was my Taylor Swift trade which I doubled down from $25 -> $50 when I saw that she had a surprise announcement the other day which turned out to be a cardigan. Lost basically the whole position which sucked.
Key takeaway for me here was that I spread my category bets pretty wide this week. Looking to explore mention markets and other trades which may be up my alley.
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Exiting this position due to Taylor Swift releasing official Tweet inviting fans to a release party of the album on October 3rd.
I still think my reasoning was solid but it is what it is.
Talked to a Swiftie today and she convinced me that Taylor Swift will release a song before October 3rd for a few reasons:
1. Max Martin & Shellback’s Return:
Historically, when they’re in the picture (Red, 1989, Reputation), Taylor always had big pre-release singles. Their whole strength is making songs built for radio & charts.
2. Shift Back to “Big Pop Era”:
Since Folklore/Evermore, Taylor leaned into surprise drops & cohesive storytelling. With Showgirl, the branding, imagery, and collaborators feel more aligned with a 1989-style pop rollout.
3. Filming a music video weeks before the announcement:
Multiple outlets reported that Taylor filmed a top-secret music video in Los Angeles in late July 2025 (crew allegedly heard only the beat; NDAs required). This was ~2–3 weeks before she announced The Life of a Showgirl on Aug 13–14, 2025.
The counter argument is this:
Recent Trend (2020–2024):
For 4 consecutive albums (Folklore, Evermore, Midnights, TTPD), Taylor released no singles ahead of time. BUT two albums were surprise drops and the two most recent were a shift toward controlling the narrative and away from her pop style rollout. With the cover art + expected shift back toward pop, this weights me more heavily to believe she'll release a single in traditional pop style.
Something to monitor as we near the October 3rd release date is what news would tilt the odds more heavily towards her releasing or not releasing a single?
1. News to increase the odds.
If we start seeing music video shoots, lyric teasers, or cryptic Spotify billboards before the album drops, that’s the exact kind of bread-crumbing she used in her traditional rollouts.
2. News to lower the odds.
If Taylor emphasizes in interviews (like she did for TTPD) that the album should be consumed “as a whole,” it signals she’ll hold everything back until Oct 3. If the videos stay fully under wraps and nothing leaks — and the first teaser is set for release day — that matches her last few album strategies.
I'm going to monitor those signals for the next month and aim to trade yes or no accordingly to update my prediction. As a side note, my total portfolio for trading on prediction markets is $500 where I split it into 20 betting units to protect my downside for now as I learn how to make better predictions. My goal is to be like @theduckguesses and @Foster and other profitable traders on Kalshi one day, but for now I want to be curious, share my predictions, thought process with the mindset of always trying to learn.
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new york social scene in your 20’s summed up:
- you will attend or host a friends at home cafe in their apartment
- you’ll pregame at your friends tiny apartment and get belligerently drunk before going out in the Lower East Side (or Midtown if you’re asian)
- you’ll love going out then hate it then go out again when your friends inevitably visit town
- you’ll either become an Equinox gym baddie or join recreational co-ed sports leagues (there is no in between)
- you’ll go to your industry’s happy hour and networking events before realizing most attendees are LARPers and you’ll tire of them
- you’ll become obsessed with how good your taste in restaurants and events are before realizing how expensive good taste is and frequenting the same spots over and over again
- you’ll spend a lot of time wishing you had time to do something else but still somehow end up loving every second of living in the city
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Talked to a Swiftie today and she convinced me that Taylor Swift will release a song before October 3rd for a few reasons:
1. Max Martin & Shellback’s Return:
Historically, when they’re in the picture (Red, 1989, Reputation), Taylor always had big pre-release singles. Their whole strength is making songs built for radio & charts.
2. Shift Back to “Big Pop Era”:
Since Folklore/Evermore, Taylor leaned into surprise drops & cohesive storytelling. With Showgirl, the branding, imagery, and collaborators feel more aligned with a 1989-style pop rollout.
3. Filming a music video weeks before the announcement:
Multiple outlets reported that Taylor filmed a top-secret music video in Los Angeles in late July 2025 (crew allegedly heard only the beat; NDAs required). This was ~2–3 weeks before she announced The Life of a Showgirl on Aug 13–14, 2025.
The counter argument is this:
Recent Trend (2020–2024):
For 4 consecutive albums (Folklore, Evermore, Midnights, TTPD), Taylor released no singles ahead of time. BUT two albums were surprise drops and the two most recent were a shift toward controlling the narrative and away from her pop style rollout. With the cover art + expected shift back toward pop, this weights me more heavily to believe she'll release a single in traditional pop style.
Something to monitor as we near the October 3rd release date is what news would tilt the odds more heavily towards her releasing or not releasing a single?
1. News to increase the odds.
If we start seeing music video shoots, lyric teasers, or cryptic Spotify billboards before the album drops, that’s the exact kind of bread-crumbing she used in her traditional rollouts.
2. News to lower the odds.
If Taylor emphasizes in interviews (like she did for TTPD) that the album should be consumed “as a whole,” it signals she’ll hold everything back until Oct 3. If the videos stay fully under wraps and nothing leaks — and the first teaser is set for release day — that matches her last few album strategies.
I'm going to monitor those signals for the next month and aim to trade yes or no accordingly to update my prediction. As a side note, my total portfolio for trading on prediction markets is $500 where I split it into 20 betting units to protect my downside for now as I learn how to make better predictions. My goal is to be like @theduckguesses and @Foster and other profitable traders on Kalshi one day, but for now I want to be curious, share my predictions, thought process with the mindset of always trying to learn.
every successful engineer i know can name the mentor(s) who got them there.
feels rare in most industries. normal in software.
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I’ve always liked Browser Co — the products, the team, the cinematic and authentic approach to marketing BUT
being acquired by Atlassian of all companies? It just doesn’t feel like the right fit.
The @browsercompany just signed a merger agreement to be acquired. We will remain independent. Our focus is Dia.
I’ve written and rewritten this post more times than I’d like to admit, but what I keep coming back to is simple: the work continues, and we’re grateful for this moment.
The work continues because when I stop by the coffee shop near our office, nobody is using Dia yet. Our “internet computer” vision hasn’t been realized. Dia hasn’t yet changed how you work on a Tuesday morning. This deal is about giving us the resources, distribution, and monetization muscle to get there.
At the same time, it feels disingenuous not to pause and briefly celebrate this milestone. It reflects our team’s craftsmanship and relentlessness, the support of our coaches, board members, and advisors, and the incredible effort from our deal team: Ryan Purcell from Gunderson, Nancy Peretsman and Leah Schwartz from Allen & Co., and Clare, Abby, Eissra, Rebecca, Cory, Nash, and Hursh from The Browser Company.
Most of all, we’re grateful for what this means for Dia. It means we can hire faster, ship faster, and bring Dia to more people. We can now invest in cross-platform support and secure syncing, train custom AI models designed specifically for Dia, and turn ambitious ideas about “computer use” and “memory” into reality.
To everyone who’s filed a bug, sent feedback, or shared a kind word: thank you. We haven’t always gotten it right, but we’ve always cared deeply. That will never change.
Dia isn’t going anywhere. We’ll be here for the long haul, with the same team just a new partner helping us push further. We’ll take a breath this weekend, and then get back to work. Big launch next month.
In the meantime...
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my goal is to grow my portfolio by +67% from now to EOY
i'm using these questions to evaluate stocks/options:
1. Do I believe the stock is undervalued relative to industry averages?
ie. when $FIG IPO was reported at at $20B market cap compared to Adobe.
2. Is there an event the market overreacted to that moved the price?
ie. Google court case which tanked the price 3/4% even when it was crushing in AI.
3. Using Moving Averages and support/resistance lines, is now the right time to buy?
ie. AAPL pre breaking resistance this past week.
4. Do I understand the company’s core business?
5. If I'm looking at a LEAP, is the company undervalued and are there catalysts that can reverse it to true value?
6. What does the option contract’s historical IV look like compared to it’s current IV?
7. Do I like the founder?
8. Is this company driven by fundamentals? If not, what drives them and can I trade off that
ie. Elon news.
chat am i cooked? what can i change if i am?
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okay maybe people need to stop tailing me
or i need to stop giving investment advice
$FIG feels like a home run buy on Thursday's IPO - sharing for clarity of thought + to invite critique.
1. Key Business Stats.
Figma posted $45 million net income in Q1 of 2025 with 46% YoY growth and 85%~ gross margins.
Figma is used by 95% (!) of the Fortune 500.
This screams strong network effects and while it's a design tool play, based off of their new AI features being rolled out + the market signal of Lovable (although this could be a lie) claiming $100M ARR, Figma's in prime position to capitalize on AI tooling.
2. Valuation Napkin Math.
Using Adobe’s P/E (~27x), Figma’s $180M projected income supports a "true value" of $45–50B — implying 2–3x upside if profitability scales. IPO pricing is targeting a ~$18 billion market cap and based off of Adobe's failed $20 billion acquisition price and the comparison with Adobe's market cap, my gut says that Figma's open IPO price is severely undervalued.
3. Recent SaaS IPOs.
Recent SaaS IPOs (Rubrik, CoreWeave, ServiceTitan) have shown 40–200%+ week-one returns.
Figma is one of the few IPOs this cycle with profitability + growth, making it a top-tier candidate for post-IPO price discovery and rerating.
4. Portfolio Construction
I see Figma as a long term buy/hold. I aim to allocate 5% of my portfolio at IPO open and 5% DCA'd over the next few weeks to gain exposure to the upside and IPO bump but also hedge my risk if there's a big IPO bubble burst. Since it's a long term buy for me, I'll still ride out the volatility until it hits what I deem it to be the true value, but I'll trade upside reward for lower risk.
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