CEO @AwadCapital Mergers&Acquisitions, Macro, BTC. 30+ years in Finance. Ex GS and BAML. My posts are not investment advice.
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Joined August 2012
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awad_ziad retweeted
To this day, Andor has one of the best monologues on freedom vs authoritarianism ever written.
The odds are reality will be even more surreal than this
My prediction for next week:
-Monday: Relief bounce.
-Tuesday: Democrats win. Market dumps.
-Wednesday: Trump bombs the shit out of Iran, blames Democrats. Circuit breakers triggered.
-Thursday: WW3.
-Friday: @kevinxu says to prepare for the biggest bull run ever.
When the Iran war started in March, gold and bonds surprised us by going down.
What if the war restarts next week and they surprise us by going up?
Some strange moves and reversals in the market today. Something is cooking.
awad_ziad retweeted
Lagarde says she wants “to have the freedom of speech, the freedom of expression, and the freedom to engage on matters that are not monetary policy matters.”
But by stepping down she’s doing much more than just giving herself room to speak freely outside the ECB— the timeline now allows Macron to help replace her before his final terms ends.
Look at bond yields falling, and you get the answer: the market is starting to be more afraid of an economic slowdown than inflation
🚨 A mini-liquidation is unfolding across metals and Asian markets today.
Gold -1.21%
Silver -2.79%
Copper -1.46%
Nikkei -2.60%
KOSPI -3.51%
Liquidation pressure appears to be intensifying day by day, with selling increasingly spreading across asset classes.
A few days ago, I warned that copper was flashing an early warning sign for broader risk assets. Today's price action only reinforces that concern.
Something is brewing beneath the surface that we are yet to fully understand.
Markets often sense stress long before the headlines explain what's actually happening.
Inspiring and educational talk with Ken Griffin at Citadel .
On AI, what drives investment returns, the interaction between research and trading, the role of humans in the future of work, politics, the mid terms and even the riots in Paris!
Highly recommended listen.
youtu.be/mV1V0FXixDE?si=4Dm-…
Great post by the great @great_martis
What if ?
BLACK MONDAY 😱📉
It would be a complete dishonour for a market technician not to share this technical setup.
Monday marks the 39th anniversary of Black Monday October 19, 1987 when markets crashed an astonishing 22% in a single day.
While modern circuit breakers protect us from a total free-fall, the structural overlay between 1987 and today’s 2026 setup is eerie.
It would be something if Monday marks the beginning of something so beautiful, yet so consequential.
For one's private perusal.
Enjoy .
awad_ziad retweeted
Again. Gross negligence trying g to make studies fit your dangerous narrative. Let me explain to the poor public that blindly follows you. So irresponsible.
This study shows an association, not that low cholesterol causes higher mortality or that 210–249 is the ideal target. The higher death rates at low total cholesterol are largely explained by reverse causality: people who already have cancer, chronic illness, frailty, or other disease processes often develop lower cholesterol as a result of being sick, and then they die sooner. A long follow-up reduces but does not remove that problem, especially without excluding early deaths or properly accounting for comorbidities.
You’re repeatedly treating this type of observational finding as evidence that higher cholesterol is protective or optimal. That interpretation doesn’t hold up against stronger data. Randomized trials of LDL-lowering therapies (statins and others) consistently reduce heart attacks, strokes, and cardiovascular death in higher-risk people. Genetic studies that lower LDL lifelong show the same pattern. Those designs are better at establishing cause and effect than population associations between baseline total cholesterol and all-cause mortality.
All-cause curves can look U-shaped because non-cardiovascular deaths drive the low end. That does not erase the clear causal link between higher LDL and atherosclerotic disease. The evidence for lowering LDL when risk is elevated is stronger and more consistent than the claim that moderately elevated total cholesterol is preferable.
I love this theory! Thank you @amitisinvesting for articulating it
if you're wondering why the 10-year is down today even though CPI had a horrible print...which should be causing yields to go up because that means we have a higher chance of a rate hike due to more inflation...
i *think* it's because the bond market wants to see the stock market go down.
and not just stocks, but AI/semi/capex stocks in particular.
the theory i've had over the past couple of weeks is that as we see more issuance of corporate debt in order to fuel capex...that is obviously competing with the long end of the curve for US treasuries
i mean, one can even argue that bond yields we're going to go up regardless of the oil issues because those yields simply couldn't stay at 4% if meta/google/amzn/msft were offering 6-7% on their corporate debt
so the obvious answer now could be for there to be LESS competition with the US 10-year...but the only way for that to happen is for their to be lower-yielding debt from the hyperscalers that are issuing bonds to fuel their capex spend
well...the only way that happens is if the capex stops, slows down, or the cost to build these datacenters drop so that the borrowing costs drop
which is why we have seen yields RISE every day over the past few weeks when semis go up and we are seeing them go down when semis go down...it's like the credit market is saying "we will only buy bonds if you guys stop buying semis"
this doesn't mean that stocks writ-large have to go down, but it does mean that the credit markets are asking for something to break in the equity markets and its like they want semis to be the main culprit. if semis keep going to the moon, cool, but then so will yields and then maybe a 6% 10-year is what breaks everything?
not sure if this theory is right but the objectively true part is the competition between US corp debt and treasuries, if all that corp debt is going to buy semis then when semis go down, it makes sense for treasuries to go up
the easiest way to get SOME relief here is for Trump to end the war so gas/energy comes down and puts relief on inflation...but today's CPI showed the opposite and yields STILL went down because semis got hit
it's a very, very weird time to understand how the bond market is navigating the AI trade
awad_ziad retweeted
August 2024, during the global equity selloff tied to weak US jobs data and the yen carry-trade unwind: stocks dropped sharply while Treasury yields fell on recession fears and flight-to-safety flows. Similar behavior occurred in the March 2023 banking crisis. During the 2026 Iran conflict and 2025 tariff shock, Treasuries often moved with equities instead, pressured by inflation concerns.
The flattening of the yield curve and the weakness of the equities markets are telling us the markets are worried about economic growth
$2,900 would also happen to be around the 200 week moving average on $Gold .
Disclaimer: I am a perennial gold bull; this is not investment advice
In a recent conversation with Adam Taggart @adamtaggart I made the comment that more printing is inevitable. Some have reached out and said explain it or prove it. The point is that base money must expand to support the growth in debt. Otherwise the debt collapses. IT IS JUST MATH! This chart from our in process EMA Q3 Report shows what I am talking about.
