
music | mlb / Fantasy Baseball contributor @Rotoballer | also @ https://xitter.cf/t.co/mxF2XpCC6R | other nonsense @ Substack
š¦½
Joined October 2019
- Tweets31.4K
- Following3.1K
- Followers1.1K
- Likes89.9K
Incredibly, itās actually possible to grow your businessā reach and revenues by reinvesting and making it good vs collecting $ simply for existing and whining about market size
#NFL week 7 picks ats
Didnāt get em out last week but 11-3 so beware
*= model ā¤ļø
Pit -3 @ NO
Atl +3 SF
Cin -2 @ Bal
*Car -2.5 TB
NYG +10.5 @ Hou
Min -6.5 Ind
NYJ -4.5 Mia
Cle -1.5 @ *TN
Den -4.5 @ AZ
GB +3.5 @ Det
LV +3.5 LAR (L: o48)
KC +3 @ Sea
*Phi +4.5 Dal
#NfL week 5 picks ats
* = Model ā¤ļø
*Phi +7.5 @ Jax
Cin -6.5 @ Mia
LV +3.5 @ NE*
Min -1.5 @ NO
Cle +2.5 @ NYJ
*Ind +2.5 @ Pit
*TN +7.5 Hou
NYG +4 @ Was
Chi -1 @ GB*
Den -3 @ LAC*
AZ +5.5 Det (L: AZ o23.5)
<SF +3.5 @ Sea (L: u46.5 / SF u20.5)
*Bal +3.5 @ Atl
Buf +3.5 @ LAR
It felt like Cash was dying to concede that game
Martinez > Ras = instant backfire
Aranda SBA, 1 out: DP
Donāt trust Matz? Use him a second inning (walk led to winning run)
Donāt trust Cleavinger? Use him in the 8th (last pitched 9/4)
We need fully automated ABS for many reasons, but ALCS game 4 provided another: online abuse of players for not challenging or getting it wrong
Plus: Jake Bauers ā¤ļø& World Series matchup nuggets
Yandy & The Ugly Downside of the Challenge System michaelcecchini.substack.comā¦
Managersā impact on results IS overstated
Otoh, totally understandable fans of a franchiseāthat sets ITSELF up as champions or bustāget frustrated by complacency of retaining a 10-yr manager and 30-yr GM
Doesnāt help Hal is content with B+ results as long as profits are A+
Ivan Herrera is C7 in adp (91.4)
batted .241 (.249 xBA), 19 HR + 98 R
ā¦in *717* PA (161 G)
Thatās not repeating
Did he āwear downā?
1H: .390 SLG
2H: .372
1 month > .250 BA
vs RHP: .234 BA, .697 OPS
8.1% career BRL is ok
-5 FRV
Bernal is a stud
Maybe ā25 was outlier?
Bat speed can offer insights into players improving, aging, or fighting through injuries.
I sorted bat speed gainers and losers year over year, with blurbs and early ā27 ADP:
Bat Speed Gainers & Droppers in 2026 michaelcecchini.substack.comā¦
Every reference to cheap owners is framed via league POV & passive tense at best - eg, āsmall marketā
Nothing about owner unwillingness to spend, pocketing revenue sharing $, duty to grow your biz etc etc
Major League Baseball wants a salary cap and says it's to ensure smaller-market, lower-payroll teams can win in the postseason.
Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa Bay are winning without one.
Free at ESPN, how to reconcile the 2026 postseason and cap talk: espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/5016ā¦
Trop 13k below capacity bc too expensive
Not like owners have saved by using a fancy tent for a stadium
stinks all the more coming weeks after some city council dimwits approved a bad stadium deal on public $
nytimes.com/athletic/7688793ā¦
Way too many zoomers named Hayden and Braelon and Braedon
Someone named Hayden Rucci caught a TD today
An Italian āHaydenā is an abomination
#NfL week 5 picks ats
* = Model ā¤ļø
*Phi +7.5 @ Jax
Cin -6.5 @ Mia
LV +3.5 @ NE*
Min -1.5 @ NO
Cle +2.5 @ NYJ
*Ind +2.5 @ Pit
*TN +7.5 Hou
NYG +4 @ Was
Chi -1 @ GB*
Den -3 @ LAC*
AZ +5.5 Det (L: AZ o23.5)
<SF +3.5 @ Sea (L: u46.5 / SF u20.5)
*Bal +3.5 @ Atl
Buf +3.5 @ LAR
#NFL week 4 picks ats
*model ā¤ļø
< meh
Was +4 Ind
NE +7 @ Buf (L: u50.5)
Jax +2.5 @ Cin
<TN +12 @ Bal
Phi +3.5 LAR
NYG +2.5 AZ
NYJ +3.5 @ Chi (L: o42.5)
Dal +3 @ Hou
TB +3.5 GB
<Min -11 Mia
Den +3 @ SF
*LV +5 KC
Sea -7 LAC
*Car +4 Det
Atl +3 @ NO
Busy week but went down rabbit hole of pitcher +/- stats from 2026
Can the strand rate outliers repeat?
Can the 2nd tier young guns take a leap?
wtf happened to deGrom down the stretch?
What Can Plus/Minus Stats Tell Us About Pitcher Luck Last Season? michaelcecchini.substack.comā¦
#NFL week 4 picks ats
*model ā¤ļø
< meh
Was +4 Ind
NE +7 @ Buf (L: u50.5)
Jax +2.5 @ Cin
<TN +12 @ Bal
Phi +3.5 LAR
NYG +2.5 AZ
NYJ +3.5 @ Chi (L: o42.5)
Dal +3 @ Hou
TB +3.5 GB
<Min -11 Mia
Den +3 @ SF
*LV +5 KC
Sea -7 LAC
*Car +4 Det
Atl +3 @ NO
#NFL week 3 picks ats
* = Model ā¤ļø
Buf -7 LAC
KC -10 @ *Mia
*NE +3 @ Jax
NYJ +6.5 @ *Det (L: o48)
Cin -3 @ *Pit
Car -2 @ Cle
Hou -1.5 @ Ind
TN +2.5 @ NYG
Sea -7.5 @ Was
Min -1 @ TB
AZ +9 @ SF (L: o47.5)
*Dal +3.5 Bal
LV +3.5 @ NO
Den +2.5 LAR
Phi -3 @ Chi
Bah, meant to tag @RyanBHQ for the great adp tracker - courtesy @BubbaBloomPod Patreon
We have three DCs either done or in progress @TheReal_NFC so took a look at early ADP
Plus- Cleveland has the 4th-best record in the AL; why do they get the easiest road to the WS?
Breaking Down Early ADP For 2027 michaelcecchini.substack.comā¦
We have three DCs either done or in progress @TheReal_NFC so took a look at early ADP
Plus- Cleveland has the 4th-best record in the AL; why do they get the easiest road to the WS?
Breaking Down Early ADP For 2027 michaelcecchini.substack.comā¦
mc retweeted
The 2027 Arbitration Projections are live @mlbtraderumors mlbtraderumors.com/2026/10/pā¦












