ZitroneMitMelone

I increasingly believe some level of infrastructure warfare between the US/Israel and Iran, on a scale we haven't yet seen, is inevitable. Iran, for its part, sees negating this long-threatened card in Trump's playbook as critical to establishing lasting deterrence. It has signaled that it would retaliate ferociously against regional infrastructure, much of which is far more concentrated and vulnerable than Iran's relatively dispersed critical infrastructure, such its electricity grid. Many Persian Gulf Arab states and Israel depend on just a handful of desalination plants, power stations, and refineries. With that said, I wouldn't expect such an infrastructure war to last long, or reach catastrophic levels, largely because I expect Iran would retaliate on a scale that would compel the US to stop quickly (like it did after Iran hit Ras Laffan in March). Yet if that doesn't happen, the consequences could be disastrous for all sides. The destruction of critical regional energy infrastructure would greatly exacerbate the existing energy crisis, likely push many economies, including the US, into recession, and deal a devastating blow to the rest of Trump's presidency and his legacy. Whether that prospect has already deterred him, however, remains quite unclear.