
follower of Jesus // the best investment decision i ever made was buying a @MonkeyBabyBiz NFT on Solana
play the long game
Joined October 2021
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The single best investment in all of crypto = @MonkeyBabyBiz
Got a concrete plan for buying, selling, or taking profits this year? In April, I'll be sharing my personal strategies and timelines for various asset classes with the @MonkeyBabyBiz community during our Q2 call. We'll break down exactly what makes an effective investment plan work—don't miss it!
plato.mbb retweeted
Replying to @VitalikButerin
I had always thought English was my native language. After reading this, I don’t think it is anymore.
LOAD UP THE TRUCK when downward momentum has eased and there's debate whether the bottom is in (early bull)
SELL GRADUALLY when "up only" is the narrative (mid-late phase bull).
This is because tops are volatile, marked by random speculative moves... while bottoms are more clearly defined by real investor capital.
plato.mbb retweeted
$SHROOM might be the first genuinely generational idea to come out of the RH stock meta. Saw it on fomo after @AvgJoesCrypto bought
Thesis:
Most coins on RH Chain are attached to a single ticker.
You buy the MU coin, the NVDA coin, the PLTR coin, and your entire thesis depends on that specific stock /memetics continuing to attract attention.
SHROOM is different.
It originally launched paired with MU, but @0xcarnation has now created SHROOM liquidity pools against more than a dozen tech, AI and semiconductor stock tokens.
So the bet is no longer just “MU goes up.”
SHROOM is becoming the common asset connecting the whole stock board.
Whenever one underlying stock moves relative to another, the SHROOM pools can move out of balance and create arbitrage opportunities through SHROOM.
More stocks added means more markets, more relative price movements and more potential routes through the same hub token.
SHROOM does not need to predict which stock wins.
It just needs the tokenized stock casino to keep growing and trading.
The secondary SHROOM/stock LPs are already live. Their swap fees are currently being autocompounded back into the pools, progressively deepening liquidity across the network.
The original Pons pool also has Holder Fee Share enabled and has already distributed over 68 MU, roughly $64k, to holders.
The potential endgame is where it gets especially interesting:
50% of swap fees continuously deepen the SHROOM/stock liquidity network, while the other 50% is used to buy back SHROOM.
That creates a very simple flywheel:
more stock pairs
→ more trading and arbitrage routes
→ more fees
→ deeper liquidity
→ better execution and more routing through SHROOM
→ buybacks
→ stronger demand for the hub token
The dev angle matters too.
Carnation is not a random anon inventing utility after the token pumped. He is a well-known DeFi builder, and the mechanism was the idea from the beginning.
This feels like exactly the kind of weird experiment that initially gets priced as a meme and later gets repriced as infrastructure.
Right now, the market sees a mushroom coin paired with MU.
The bull case is that SHROOM becomes the liquidity hub for the entire tokenized stock economy on Robinhood Chain.
You are not betting on MU.
You are not betting on NVDA.
You are not betting on any individual stock.
You are betting that all of them trade through the same asset.
It is experimental, but you do not find generational experiments after every detail has already been optimized.
plato.mbb retweeted
Replying to @eachtras
I am not going to motivate you because if you need motivation from a stranger on a plane the answer is stay
but I will give you the game theory
your corporate M&A gig is a repeated game with diminishing marginal returns. year 1 you learn everything. year 2 you refine it. year 3 you are executing pattern recognition. year 4+ you are being paid more to do the same thing with slightly larger numbers. the learning curve flattens but the golden handcuffs tighten because every year the comp goes up and the opportunity cost of leaving gets more painful on paper
this is a classic status quo bias trap. the payoff of staying is known and comfortable. the payoff of leaving is uncertain and scary. so you stay not because staying is optimal but because the asymmetry of regret is lopsided. you can imagine regretting the leap. you cannot as easily imagine regretting the years you stayed too long because that regret builds slowly and never hits you in one moment
here is where game theory actually helps:
in your M&A seat you are playing someone else's game. the firm sets the rules, the deal flow, the comp structure, the promotion timeline. you optimize within their framework. you are a very well-compensated player in a game you did not design. your upside is capped by whatever the partnership or MD economics look like. your downside is protected by a salary. that is the trade
owning a local business flips the entire payoff matrix. you design the game. you set the rules. the downside is real and unprotected but the upside is uncapped and compounds in ways a salary never does because you own the equity. a $2M EBITDA business bought at 4x and grown to $3M EBITDA over 3 years is worth $12-15M on exit. no M&A salary trajectory produces that kind of wealth creation in that timeframe unless you are a founding partner
the Nash equilibrium of your current situation: you and every other M&A professional are competing for the same promotions, same deal credit, same bonus pool. the competition is fierce because the players are identical. same schools, same skills, same hours. you are in a crowded equilibrium where everyone works 80 hours to stay in the same relative position
local business ownership is a different game with different players. the competition is a 62-year-old owner who stopped innovating in 2014 and a 35-year-old who inherited the business and does not want to be there. you walk in with financial sophistication, deal structuring experience, and the ability to read a balance sheet faster than anyone in the room. you are overqualified for the game which is exactly where you want to be. the best strategy in game theory is to play games where your existing skill set gives you an asymmetric advantage over the other players
the timing question is about optionality. every year you stay in M&A your financial optionality goes up slightly because you save more. but your operational optionality goes down because you get further from the reality of running anything. the M&A guy who leaves at 28 adapts to operations in 6 months. the one who leaves at 38 has a decade of habits built around delegating to analysts and reviewing decks, and managing a P&L feels foreign in a way it would not have 10 years earlier
but again. if you need me to motivate you, stay. the people who actually do this do not need motivation. they need a spreadsheet that shows the math works and then they cannot NOT do it. if you have the spreadsheet and you are still asking strangers for motivation the spreadsheet is not the problem
plato.mbb retweeted
If you’re wondering what to get your girl this valentine’s day: emeralds and ruby’s
plato.mbb retweeted
⚡️This is one of the most extreme, structurally anomalous readings Bitcoin has ever printed.
It reinforces exactly what we’ve been saying about forced flow + microstructure break.
Let’s dissect it properly.
1. The Chart Is Legit – and It Confirms the Distortion
The three core claims are:
A. Lowest 1D MACD reading ever
This checks out.
To get a new all-time low MACD on the daily, despite only a −33% drawdown, means the velocity and smoothness of the selling is far more extreme than the magnitude of the drawdown.
That never happens in organic markets.
This is exactly what forced institutional, algorithmic, or risk-mandated selling looks like:
•consistent pressure
•no reflexive bounces
•no momentum resets
•no buyer-led intervention
Healthy markets don’t do this. Broken execution does.
B. RSI 21 on 1D - only 4 times in 5 years
Also correct.
When you hit RSI 21 during:
•a broad risk-off collapse (2020, 2021)
•cascading liquidations (FTX 2022)
•macro shocks
…you expect massive multi-day or multi-week reversals afterward.
Yet today, that RSI is printing in a vacuum - with no macro shock, no credit event, no leverage blowout, no ETF redemptions of size.
This is compression, not trend destruction.
C. Only -33% from ATH despite these extreme readings
This is the most important part.
In every prior moment where MACD/RSI were this extreme:
•Price was down 50–70%.
•Funding was deeply negative.
•Positioning was wiped clean.
•Derivative markets were collapsing.
But now?
•Price is down just 33%.
•ETFs (except for one day) still show net positive January - now.
•Permanent holder accumulation is at historical peak.
•Solana ETFs printing green every day.
•Microstructure is broken, not sentiment.
That is the tell.
**This is not a natural market.
This is not a real seller.
This is one or more forced entities closing risk in a broken market.**
2. The Chart Literally Shows Structural Divergence
Look at the pattern:
•MACD at all-time low
•RSI at capitulation-level
•Price still structurally in an uptrend
•Higher highs + higher lows still intact
This is the definition of:
Microstructure catastrophe + macro strength.
If macro or cycle structure were breaking, you would NOT get:
•186,000 BTC absorbed by permanent holders in 6 weeks
•Solana ETF 18-for-18 green
•ETH holding stronger than BTC
•Forced flow during the same 9:30 AM slot for 2 weeks
This is a bottleneck, not a cycle reversal.
3. The Seller Hypothesis Fits the Chart PERFECTLY
This chart is exactly what you’d see if:
•A distressed fund
•A broken market maker
•A forced unwind
•A liquidation mandate
•A risk-reduction algorithm
…is dumping on schedule, irrespective of price.
Healthy markets make:
•rounded bottoms,
•wick-driven reversals,
•volume spikes at inflection points,
•and sentiment-coherent reactions.
This market is making:
•forced candles
•identical timed flow
•thin liquidity breaks
•RSI/MACD extremes without macro justification
•divergence where you normally get confluence
This is clinical, mechanical execution - not macro.
4. What This Actually Means
A. This is NOT a 2021-style trend break
2021 break was:
•funding stress
•cascading longs
•spot selling
•macro tightening
•exhaustion of buyer demand
This is none of that.
This is:
•spot bid strong
•long-term holders buying
•ETFs still accumulating
•liquidity thin only on one venue
•macro neutral to bullish
•seller highly constrained and systematic
This is not May 2021.
This is much closer to March 2020 - a forced actor swinging a wrecking ball through fragile books.
B. This confirms the “October 10 microstructure fracture”
The indicators align with the exact thesis we just posted:
A market maker or deep liquidity provider failed on October 10 - leaving a hole in the order book.
This current selling pattern is that same entity (or someone tied to them) unwinding risk.
This explains:
•timing
•rhythm
•pressure
•lack of reflexivity
•bizzarre lack of bid absorption
•BTC-specific stress
•“why alts aren’t breaking”
•“why ETH isn’t collapsing”
•“why Solana has massive inflows”
•“why macro isn’t involved”
•“why forced RSI/MACD divergence exists”
It fits too well.
This is not random.
5. Final Answer
Yes, the chart is real.
Yes, it is unprecedented.
No, it is not bearish long-term
No, the cycle is not broken.
Yes, it confirms a forced seller or broken execution system.
Yes, this is the last echo of the October 10 fracture.
Yes, the unwind will end.
And when it ends, the rebound will be violent.
This is insane.
Bitcoin has just set its lowest EVER MACD reading on the 1D.
It has also hit a 21 on the 1D RSI which has only happened 4x in the last 5 years - I've highlighted them.
It has done this, whilst only retracing 33% from ATH. The 50% drop in May 2021 didn't even go as low as this.
That is insane pressure over such a short amount of time.
If there was doubt about some massive entity was selling for whatever reason, the metrics confirm it.
I've never seen anything like it.
What is even crazier is that it has done all of this whilst still maintaining a HTF uptrend.
This is an unprecedented selling level event that we have never ever seen before.
None of this has change my overall thesis for the market, but this will take a bit of time to figure itself out.
Probably something like May 2021.
plato.mbb retweeted
When Erika Kirk spoke the words on the man who killed her husband: “That man… that young man… I forgive him.” That moment deeply affected me. I have struggled for over 60 years to forgive the man who killed my Dad. I will say those words now as I type: “ I forgive the man who killed my father.”
Peace be with you all.
plato.mbb retweeted
seems worthless
The Worthless Coin Iceberg:
16 theses. 55 minutes of why this is the final store of value & the biggest memecoin of all time. The easter egg of financial history has been uncovered.
@buyworthless
Full video is here. youtu.be/tShBOutN3Ug?si=cMtP…
plato.mbb retweeted
I didn't really know anything about Charlie Kirk
Until this week Kirk was a name and face I would occasionally see someone retweet on here and I would scroll past. I'd seen 2 or 3 short videos taken from Tiktok of him debating some low IQ college student but that was it.
I'm generally not interested in MAGA. I broadly believe in many of their goals, but find much of the rhetoric and policy implementation to be self defeating. To me Kirk was another Ben Shapiro or Tim Pool. All MAGA, all the time.
Immediately following his shooting my shock was political and societal. Another step down in what seems to be the never ending descent of American, and thus Western, society. Another sad day for free speech, no matter what you thought of the man's politics.
Then in the following hours my timeline was filled with videos of Kirk as a father, and my heart broke. I saw a man that was clearly devoted to his family and who loved them, and was loved in return, a great deal. I felt that love forever torn apart. I saw a daughter that would never run to her father and wrap her arms around him again.
The following day I saw more videos on here, and out of respect and curiosity I watched them all. Maybe they would make some sense of why someone felt the need to end this man's life and rob his children of a father. They did not.
Contrary to the tweets spreading through X as some kind of justification, what I found was a man who was deeply religious. I man that had a true belief system, and not one that he bent or shaped to fit to modern society. For example. he absolutely believed that homosexuality was a sin because that was what the bible told him, but he did not hate or think less of those people. Many of his close friends such as Peter Thiel and David Rubin were gay.
What I see when I watch the videos of Kirk is a fan of deep faith who put that faith above everything else. I see a man who treated everyone with compassion and civility. I see a man that was friendly and open and honest.
Honestly, I see a man that is braver and better than I. Not because he put himself in danger by wanted to talk to people, but by handing himself completely over to a belief system that I've never been able to get my head around. Like many of us, the idea is alien to me.
I can't say I don't watch his videos with a tinge of jealousy. What I see is a man who was completely happy. A man confident in his faith and who led his life accordingly. A man who not just believed, but acted on his belief.
At a time when so many people seem empty and depressed, it's hard not to be a little jealous of a person that seemed so fulfilled.
With this in mind, it's been incensing to see him slandered on here by people without any of the faith and none of the commitment. To see people take the man's faith and turn it into something twisted and hateful.
I knew nothing of the man in life, but I will try to listen to him more in death.
plato.mbb retweeted
(Warning: long rant)
My liberal friends are completely oblivious about how radicalizing the last week has been for tens of millions of normal Americans. Zero clue.
I’m not talking about people who are “online”; I mean regular, everyday Americans. “Normies.” People who scroll through Facebook posts and Instagram reels from the Dutch Bros drive thru line. Political moderates who have water cooler chats about Mahomes touchdowns and Bon Jovi concerts, not Twitter threads or Rachel Maddow monologues.
Millions of them. Tens of millions. They’re logging on, they’re engaging, and they’re furious.
And I’ll be candid: They blame you guys. They blame the left.
Regardless of whether you believe it to be justified, they think you’re the bad guys here. And they are reacting accordingly.
I can already hear some of you racing toward the comments to start screeching in moral indignation, so I’m going to be blunt: Shut up and listen to what I’m telling you. Your movement will lose any semblance of relevance if you don’t develop some small measure of self-awareness, and—absent someone force-feeding you bitter medicine—you guys collectively lack the humility to do this on your own.
Here are the facts:
Fact 1. Tens of millions of Americans started the week seeing a 23-year-old blonde woman—a young woman in whom virtually every parent watching pictured their own daughter—stabbed in the neck by a career criminal. These people then found out the murderer had been released from jail 14 times over.
Fact 2. Two days later, tens of millions of Americans watched a video of Charlie Kirk get murdered speaking to college students. Millions of these people knew who Charlie was; millions of them didn’t. Upon seeing the video, however, these normal Americans from across the land and across the political spectrum agreed that he was the victim of a terrible, fundamentally unjustifiable crime, and their hearts broke in sympathy for his family. Good people who had never even heard the name Charlie Kirk before wept.
Fact 3. Immediately after seeing the footage of a peaceful young man get shot in the neck, these same people logged onto Facebook and Instagram (remember, we are talking about regular Americans, not perpetually online Twitter or Bluesky users) and saw some of their local nurses, school teachers, college administrators, and retail workers celebrating this horrific crime. Not just defending it, but cheering it.
These are all facts. You may not like the implications of these facts, and we can certainly debate the underlying causes thereof, but, indisputably, they are nevertheless factual statements.
Here’s what it means for you, the Democrats reading this:
These normal, middle-of-the-road, non-political citizens just become politically active. They realized that politics cares about them, even if they don’t particularly care about politics. After watching Iryna Zarutska and Charlie Kirk both bleed out from the neck, they think their lives and the physical safety of their families—the bedrock of human society, the foundation of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs—depend on political activation, whether they desire it or not.
These people are now sprinting—not jogging, not walking, but racing—to the right. Because they blame you guys for everything that just happened.
When they see footage of Decarlos Brown stabbing a Ukrainian refugee to death, they don’t see just one demon-possessed man. They picture every university administrator, HR bureaucrat, and DEI apparatchik that ever lectured them about systemic racism, the “carceral state,” or the need to release violent crime suspects without bail in the name of social justice.
They then think back to conversations they’ve had with their cop friends—their buddy from high school who quit the force after getting tired of being called a racist, their friend at the local YMCA who vents about having to release career criminals because Soros-funded prosecutors aren’t willing to file charges—and they realize everything the left has told them over the last five years has been utter bullshit.
And they blame you. Because, even if you count yourself as a moderate Democrat, your party supported the district attorneys, city council members, and mayors that let fictitious concerns about mental health and racial justice supersede very real concerns for their family’s safety.
When these Americans see blood erupt from the side of Charlie Kirk’s neck, they don’t see just a martyred political activist. They think of every extreme leftist they’ve ever met who (1) calls anyone to the right of Hillary Clinton a fascist and (2) constantly jokes—“jokes”—about punching Nazis and “bashing the fash.”
They realize that there really do exist people who wish to see them dead for their moderately conservative political beliefs, their Christian faith, and even the color of their skin. They ask themselves if the violence visited upon Charlie might one day show up on their own doorstep.
And they blame you. Because, even if you’re just a center-of-the-road liberal, you lacked the courage to police your own ranks. You let modern-day Maoist red guards run loose across every facet of society, and what started with social-media struggle sessions has now turned to 30-06 bullet holes.
When these Americans log onto social media and see their neighbors justifying, celebrating, glorifying murder, they realize that some who walk among them are soulless ghouls at best, literally demon-possessed at worst. These people—whether they faithfully attend church every Sunday or only attend with relatives once a year, on Christmas Eve—start talking about things like spiritual warfare. They implicitly understand that no normal human casually celebrates the mortal demise of a peaceful person.
And they blame you. Because, even if you condemned Charlie Kirk’s murder, they probably haven’t seen you condemn those in your own movement who cheered it on. They view you as complicit in allowing heartless fellow travelers to celebrate death, and it repulses them.
For all of these situations, what has your response been? Nothing but bullshit.
In response to Iryna Zarutska bleeding out on the floor of a train, you post bullshit statistics about reductions in reported crime, when everyone who’s ever been to a major urban center in the last decade knows that actual crime has skyrocketed, only for victims not to waste their time reporting it to cops that don’t have the manpower to respond and prosecutors that seek to downgrade as many felonies as possible to misdemeanor citations.
In response to a 31-year-old man taking a bullet to the neck in front of his family, you post nothing but bullshit whataboutism.
> “What about January 6th?” (Honest answer: After you let Liz Cheney spend two years operating a star chamber in the House, combined with countless other failed attempts at “lawfare” against Trump, no one cares anymore.)
> “What about Mike Lee making a dumb joke on Twitter about some guy in a mask in Minnesota?” (No one outside of Utah, DC, or Twitter knows who Mike Lee even is.)
> “What about Paul Pelosi?” (That’s not comparable to Charlie Kirk getting shot, and we all know it. And, again, Paul who?)
> “What about regulations on assault rifles?” (That’s not going to get you very far when one of these killers used a knife and the other one used a common hunting rifle.)
In response to teachers, healthcare workers, and thousands of other liberals cheering on Charlie’s murder, it’s nothing but more bullshit and misdirection.
> “It’s not THAT many people celebrating!” (Yes, it is. Everyone has seen it on their Facebook and Instagram feeds.)
> “I thought you guys didn’t support cancel culture.” (We don’t cancel people over their opinions; we’re more than happy to see people lose their jobs—especially their taxpayer-funded jobs—for actively cheering on murder, though. If you can’t see the difference, that’s your own shortcoming.)
All bullshit. Not even smart bullshit, but stale, mid-grade, low-IQ bullshit. Ordinary Americans see right through it, and they don’t like how it smells.
You probably don’t like hearing this. But you need to hear it.
Because I’m right, and, as you reflect on this, you know I’m right. The ranks of my political movement gained millions of righteously angry new members this week. We have a mandate to ensure these crimes never happen again, and that’s exactly what we are now going to do.
If you want to keep a seat at the table as we do so, you’d better clean house and start policing your own.

































