Keeping it halal and sharing my research. Subscribe on Substack below for Discord access.
Joined June 2025
- Tweets8K
- Following250
- Followers12.1K
- Likes5K
Pinned Tweet
To show you guys how I think through my swings, I wrote a FREE post recapping the incredibly successful trading week last week. Link in first reply.
I go through the thought process of every trade and here are the numbers -
$MU: 5%
$DELL rounds 1&2: 8%
$MU round 2: 12%
$PENG: 8%
$META: 6%
$GOOGL, $LLY, $ISRG: 2-3% each
How’s $SKHY growing DRAM bit growth 20%+ QoQ?
I thought that was the yearly increase.
$SKHY reported pretty solid earnings.
SK HYNIX $SKHY Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $78.9B (Est. $74.8B) 🟢; +328% YoY
🔹 Oper Profit: $62.8B (Est. $58.5B) 🟢; +632% YoY
🔹 Oper Margin: 80%; +3,300 bps YoY; record high
🔹 QoQ: Revenue +32% / Oper Profit +38%
Q4 Guide:
🔹 DRAM Bit Growth: Mid-20% QoQ
🔹 NAND Bit Growth: Mid-single% QoQ incl. Solidigm
Q3 Pricing & Volume:
🔹 DRAM ASP: High-20% QoQ; bits ~+10% QoQ
🔹 NAND ASP: Mid-20% QoQ; bits slightly lower QoQ
Profitability:
🔹 Gross Margin: 85.7% (Est. 85.2%) 🟢
🔹 EBITDA: $66.1B; 84% margin; +486% YoY
🔹 EPS: $41.07; +205% YoY
Financials:
🔹 Cash: $86.3B; +311% YoY
🔹 Interest-Bearing Debt: $11.9B; -34% YoY
🔹 Net Debt-to-Equity: -32%; -2,800 bps YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $41.3B; +281% YoY
🔹 Total Assets: $295.5B
2027 Market Outlook:
🔹 DRAM Demand Bit Growth: +mid-20% YoY
🔹 NAND Demand Bit Growth: +high-teens% YoY
🔹 2027 CapEx: To rise significantly vs 2026
🔸 Memory demand expected to outpace supply through 2030
Product & Technology:
🔹 HBM4: Expected to surpass HBM3E in HBM shipment and revenue share in Q4
🔹 2027 HBM: Negotiations finalized; profitability gap with conventional DRAM expected to narrow meaningfully
🔹 M15X: Ramp-up accelerating to full capacity by end-2026
🔹 321L NAND: Over 50% of domestic capacity in Q4
Business Highlights:
🔹 LTAs: Signed with 14 key customers incl. major global CSPs; standard 5-year term; over 50% of 2027-2028 capacity secured
🔹 Q3 Dividend: ~₩20,000/share (~$15.08), incl. a ₩10,000 special dividend from realized Kioxia gains
🔹 Share Acquisition: ₩20T (~$15.1B) for the quarter, incl. ~₩10T for executive & employee compensation
🔸 Quarterly revenue topped ₩100T for the first time
Note:
🔹 Net Profit: $30.0B; +216% YoY
🔸 Includes a $24.6B non-operating loss: a $17.3B investment-asset loss and an $8.8B FX loss as the won strengthened
FX used for USD conversion: $1 = ₩1,326 (mid-market; Oct 27, 2026)
$META 3/4 of these came true. And it’s back to low 600s 🤣
That’s why you don’t into the X hype cycle. Sell the top and run.
$META is still undervalued and has a long way to go. But short term, it can retest the low 700s again on any FUD.
FUD possibilities:
1. Google or OpenAI comes out with an AI assistant
2. META does an equity raise
3. Muse loses traction in app store
4. META nerfs Muse due to scaling issues and that causes churn
Lots of possibilities. So your position size shouldn't be the same here as it was in the 550s.
SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY $STX Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $4.2B (Est. $4.14B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $7.68 (Est. $7.42) 🟢
🔹 Gross Margin: 57.8%
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $1.5B
Q2 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $4.8B +/- $100M (Est. $4.53B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $9.20 +/- $0.20 (Est. $8.58) 🟢
Other Q1 Metrics:
🔹 Cash Flow From Operations: $1.7B
🔹 GAAP EPS: $7.59
Capital Return:
🔹 Returned to Shareholders: $568M
🔹 Quarterly Dividend: $0.76/share
Comments:
🔸 “Seagate delivered another quarter of record profitability and our highest ever free cash flow in the September quarter, demonstrating the earnings power of our business amid a strengthening demand environment.”
🔸 “Data creation, retention and reuse continue to compound storage demand with long term customer demand visibility reinforcing our view of a multi-year growth phase.”
Model trainings take over 60% of compute. We also heard Elon say how much compute is being thrown at training $GOOGL’s latest frontier.
Every company is dedicating most of its compute to refine their models.
So what happens when the race to frontier is won or when there’s no marginal improvement left to farm?
Enterprise LLMs certainly don’t need as much compute as their domain is restricted.
Most semis are priced for 2029 numbers. So it’s certainly possible for there to be a longer digestion period between now and then.
I’m a big AI bull too but it’s important to realize that AI can keep getting better while stocks are priced in.
Most enterprises that spend on Anthropic do it for less than 1% of their budget. This tells me software has a long runway to get better inshaAllah.
Halal Investor retweeted
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Dylan said in a panel yesterday that OpenAI’s chip is more performant than Blackwell and that Anthropic is looking to build one in half the time.
Who’s the winner here besides $TSM?
Elon talking his book and spreading FUD. His tweet will bring down the Neo-clouds even more which will make it harder for them to get funding. This will make it easier for $SPCX to access funding, compute and everything needed to build his data centers.
I don’t have a horse in this race. But you can clearly see what he’s doing.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
$MU Hynix and $TSM have a bullish divergence on the momentum and RSI, while most other semis (including $NVDA) don't.
FOMC and earnings will tell us if we bottom here, but regardless, we'll start seeing a K shaped recovery within semis. Most aren't going back to their highs anytime soon while others will make new ones inshaAllah.
I think AI will be primarily used by businesses, just like most tech advancements. Consumer AI won’t get much traction unless it’s free.
And we won’t be losing many jobs to it except software engineering and some mundane knowledge work. Overall the benefits to society will be huge InshaAllah.
But personal freedoms will shrink with advanced military and surveillance use. That’s the biggest negative.
Tells you analyst PTs mean nothing.
Even fundamentals mean nothing in this market, you can tell by where some of the cyber companies are trading.
It’s all about price action. Buy whatever institutions are accumulating at a given time and sell once they’re done.
📊 𝐈𝐍𝐕𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐑 𝐍𝐎𝐓𝐄: Goldman Sachs Executes "High-Altitude Dive" on KOSPI Target: Cut from 12,000 to 9,000 Points, Yet Maintains 60% Upside Potential - $SKHY
➤ 12-Month Target Lowered From 12,000 to 9,000
➤ More Conservative Valuation After 35% Slide From Peak
➤ Still Undervalued, With Upside of More Than 60%
➤ Bloomberg Says Forward P/E Lowest Since 2006