Research on economics, history, and tech @Ryan_Research | Special focus on Ireland

Joined October 2012
Peter Ryan retweeted
My initial S-1 thoughts: As I expected, Anthropic is still firmly unprofitable. But, to their credit, they've significantly reduced compute costs as a % of revenue, leading to much narrower losses. On first look, there is a plausible and imminent path to profitability. This is impressive. However, the meat of the document begins at page 161, under "liquidity and capital resources." There, we learn where the true compute costs have been hiding: future compute purchase agreements. As of June 30, Anthropic has signed roughly $587 billion in compute leases and minimum purchase commitments that haven't begun. It has since signed $245 billion more, resulting in more than $800B in future compute costs. None of these costs have made their way onto the income statement yet. But they will, and when they do, the profitability picture will look completely different. Anthropic acknowledges how precarious these agreements are. They point out that their compute providers (on whom they also rely for financial support) also sell services that "compete with ours." As a result, these providers/competitors may eventually force them into onerous agreements. This is something I've expressed concerns about for a while, and it's nice to see Anthropic openly recognize it. That's why Anthropic admitted their most significant strategic decision: They're about to initiate "substantial capital expenditures." So far, they've spent zero. Why the change? Because they know they can no longer rely on leasing compute, "the magnitude and timing" of which are "inherently uncertain." So, they're going to build their own compute, which will, in their words, "change the cash flow profile of our business." I.e. make it severely negative. It's possible that this is why they want to go public now. Since these costs have not yet "come online," they can be left as footnotes at the bottom of the document. But very soon, that won't be possible. In sum, Anthropic's income statement is not telling you the full picture. To the company's credit, they spared us the accounting gymnastics of stripping out training costs in their non-GAAP adjustments. That would have been offensive. Still, the most important numbers aren't getting the requisite attention. I encourage you to start at page 161 for a more complete understanding of what's going on.
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Peter Ryan retweeted
Concentration grew through the latter-half of ZIRP, up until the ill-fated WeWork IPO — a high profile warning about the "growth at all costs" mentality. From 2019 to 2022, VC concentration fell as investors squeezed down into Seed, searching for a clean slate. New frontiers, and a reset on price inflation; although capital supply meant prices remained high. The market bifurcated in 2022, as smaller LPs suffered a liquidity crunch which larger LPs barely noticed. The market has quickly been dominated by scaled allocation, chasing easy narratives. As a result, 2023 to 2026 has seen successive ATHs in market concentration, as LP capital has crowded into megafunds and obvious growth opportunities. Credit to @harmonic_ai for the data.
For every $100 the seven megafunds invested between 2005 and 2023, only about $11–19 matched the market-wide distribution of capital. So far in 2026, it's about $38. This group has gone from a set of differentiated firms to something that looks more like a VC megacap index. Data sourced from @harmonic_ai.
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Everyone predicted this except The Management.
This was so foreseeable (indeed my early prediction when ChatGPT came out) but a lot of tech people have a hard time understanding that the hypothetical enriching use of a tech loses out to the lazy corner cutting use 99.9% of the time theguardian.com/technology/2…
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Peter Ryan retweeted
Article surfaces about the inadequacy of the "supply" narrative. "As long as politicians insist “more supply” is the only solu- tion, while ignoring demand from investors, their housing policies will keep missing the mark." drive.google.com/file/d/1mnB… This chart gives all of the data informing the result:
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What makes homes so expensive in San Francisco, NYC and LA? High earners bidding up scarce housing, zoning that limits new building, and the amenities and density that make a city desirable but also slow and costly to build in. How much each factor matters is controversial.
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Peter Ryan retweeted
Had @RobinWigg join me on Better Offline to explain how both corporate and sovereign bonds work, why you should care, and what you need to know about the tech industry’s growing debt. youtube.com/watch?v=qzHFEbqa…
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The term "housing crisis" gets thrown around a lot—but to the extent that financing a median home is unusually expensive today—compared to the median income—I think it's pretty fair to say we are in a housing crisis now. I do not think we were in a crisis in, say, 2019. Perhaps the cyclical nature of housing argues for a term other than "crisis", though (maybe, "affordability recession"?)...
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RT @credistick: There are five ways that the large venture platforms are trampling small firms: 1) Pumping price-insensitive capital into…
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I have a new piece out in @newrepublic this morning! About why tech titans proselytized for the effective altruist gospel. It has less to do with optimizing their ethics and more to do with validating their view of themselves as cosmic heroes Hope it's interesting! (link 👇)
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Peter Ryan retweeted
Do the economics of AI emulate the economics of traditional tech startups? @davidzmorris explains: "AI, at least right now, is not a zero marginal cost product...Are you going to be able to pay off that, again, $518 billion in Anthropic commitments?"
PODCAST: Beyond the headlines of SBF and FTX, a darker cultural force is quietly reshaping Silicon Valley and the current AI paradigm. I'm joined by @davidzmorris to chat about his book "Stealing the Future: Sam Bankman-Fried, Elite Fraud, and the Cult of Techno-Utopia".
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Peter Ryan retweeted
What connects Sam Bankman-Fried with Anthropic and OpenAI? @davidzmorris explains that they share a culture of masking cultish appeals to authority (and money) for unfalsifiable claims with the veneer of math that encourages others to doubt their own intuitions.
PODCAST: Beyond the headlines of SBF and FTX, a darker cultural force is quietly reshaping Silicon Valley and the current AI paradigm. I'm joined by @davidzmorris to chat about his book "Stealing the Future: Sam Bankman-Fried, Elite Fraud, and the Cult of Techno-Utopia".
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Peter Ryan retweeted
My favorite quote from @davidzmorris' book that unveils the reality and threat of this new "ism" from Silicon Valley. "But EA and techno-utopianism steal the future from democracy, both politically and economically, and claim it for a fraudulent, performative elitism."
PODCAST: Beyond the headlines of SBF and FTX, a darker cultural force is quietly reshaping Silicon Valley and the current AI paradigm. I'm joined by @davidzmorris to chat about his book "Stealing the Future: Sam Bankman-Fried, Elite Fraud, and the Cult of Techno-Utopia".
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Peter Ryan retweeted
PODCAST: Beyond the headlines of SBF and FTX, a darker cultural force is quietly reshaping Silicon Valley and the current AI paradigm. I'm joined by @davidzmorris to chat about his book "Stealing the Future: Sam Bankman-Fried, Elite Fraud, and the Cult of Techno-Utopia".
PODCAST: Stealing the Future - David Z. Morris - Ryan Research Podcast Ep. 30 ryanresearch.substack.com/p/…
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Peter Ryan retweeted
What does 20th century French philosopher Jean Baudrillard have to do with FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, crypto, AI, and Silicon Valley? @davidzmorris explains:
PODCAST: Beyond the headlines of SBF and FTX, a darker cultural force is quietly reshaping Silicon Valley and the current AI paradigm. I'm joined by @davidzmorris to chat about his book "Stealing the Future: Sam Bankman-Fried, Elite Fraud, and the Cult of Techno-Utopia".
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Today @ZKZeroKnowledge we report on the research funding practices that fed current panic about "AI Doom." We found consistent defunding of dissent, even from within the "extinction risk" field. "AI Safety" is not a research program. It's propaganda. 🧵 zero-knowledge.com/blog/ai-s…
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Peter Ryan retweeted
Where does housing in NYC get built? Where there is vacant or underused space, and where rents are sufficiently high to make it profitable.
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Peter Ryan retweeted
From @hamiltonnolan—"Every government will, in time, be faced with the question of what to do when the power of rich individuals begins to rival the power of the state itself." Sounds incendiary, but read carefully, it's hard to disagree. My chart...
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Peter Ryan retweeted
Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwartOct 5
This was a really interesting discussion about surging bond yields
Bloomberg
@businessOct 5
On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, @CarolinPflueger joins @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart to discuss why Treasury and global bond yields have been surging and what central banks have to do to make bonds more “bond-like” again. Listen at bit.ly/3PsKJKY or watch at Bloomberg.com/video
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A very fun interview, check it out.
My favorite quote from @davidzmorris' book that unveils the reality and threat of this new "ism" from Silicon Valley. "But EA and techno-utopianism steal the future from democracy, both politically and economically, and claim it for a fraudulent, performative elitism."
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My response to @Walmart:
Public claims deserve a public response. Especially when they’re inaccurate and misleading. @owenslindsay1 has repeatedly suggested Walmart uses or plans to use technology to charge people more based on their personal information.
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