Photonic retweeted
Ugly CPI Tuesday: QQQ -0.68%
Next day: QQQ +2.5%
Ugly NVDA news and Jensen out: QQQ -0.32%
Do I have to state the obvious?
$700+ is calling imo
Photonic retweeted
$CBRS RIPPING ON EARNINGS
Q3 Adj EPS: $(0.67) vs $(0.14) est ❌
Q3 Sales: $210.8M vs $214.7M est ❌
Raised Q4 Sales Guidance ✅
🟩 +15% in after-hours
Photonic retweeted
AI agent traffic grew 8x in just TWO MONTHS. Imagine what the internet will look like in 2027.
Photonic retweeted
Prepare for another dip til OPEX 11/20 then we fly, nfa $SPY
Thanksgiving pump
Photonic retweeted
I've been back in the market for a whole two hours and this Jensen shit drops lmao
Photonic retweeted
$NVDA Jensen news conveniently hits right after the bell to trap options traders
I’m sure it’s just a coincidence
Photonic retweeted
BREAKING: The NVIDIA Board is preparing to oust Jensen Huang as CEO, per WSJ.
The board is preparing to meet as soon as today to determine his future according to people familiar with the matter.
The days of the leather jacket may be quickly coming to an end. $NVDA
Photonic retweeted
You heard 10x demand for compute > supply from $CRWV today.
Hearing from $TSM today on Nikkei Forum:
"The demand on our leading node [most advanced] silicon is insatiable"
Customers "want to get [their] hands around any compute capability they can have. It's truly an insatiable environment."
Q: Whether AI demand was slowing?
A: "we did not see any sign of slowdown"
Q: How demand compared with TSMC’s ability to supply
A: "the demand actually is still far above our capability today to supply."
TSMC identified power and substrates as bottlenecks customers were encountering.
On the mid-to-high-50s annualized growth estimate for AI accelerator revenue from 2024 to 2029. Wei said "it probably will be higher."
Describing things as "insatiable" from a traditionally conservative company... doesn't quite look like any collapse in AI demand.
$CRWV ER and read through for $NBIS and other Neoclouds:
“We have 10x as much qualified demand as available capacity”.
- interest in 2028 capacity already amounts to several times what CoreWeave has available
- CoreWeave raised prices by 25% in July, +10% later in Q3, and more to come in Q4
- Ampere and Hopper rental pricing rose 30–50% quarter over quarter (older GPUs)
- better financing conditions (higher prepayments, lower interest 7–7.5% for new loans)
- positive adjusted net income in the first half of 2028.
So we’re seeing higher pricing esp. for older GPUs…better financing mechanics, and extreme demand imbalance where you have 10x demand > supply.
Same issues are there for this company in specific with interest rates, but I’d argue other Neoclouds are in a better spot.
But it’s wild to witness AI infrastructure names crash while demand keeps growing
Photonic retweeted
If you're afraid of failing, being embarrassed, or being humiliated, you need to turn that ego-driven headwind into powerful tailwind.
Instead of fearing failure, fear never trying. Fear living your entire life without ever discovering what you were truly capable of becoming. Fear leaving your potential unrealized.
The fear of what others might think will keep you imprisoned in mediocrity if you allow it. Stop seeking approval. Stop worrying about criticism. Stop allowing your ego to stand between you and your dreams.
Advance boldly in the direction of your dreams, independent of the good opinion of others. Especially those closest to you.
The people who love you want to protect you. They'll tell you to play it safe. Get a secure job. Stay in school. Become a doctor or a lawyer. They'll tell you that trading is gambling, that your dreams are unrealistic, that you're taking too much risk.
They don't want to see you fail. And their intentions may be good. But in their desire to protect you from failure, they often overlook the most important thing of all: What do YOU want? What is YOUR dream?
They're looking at your life through the lens of their own fears, limitations, and expectations. But they're not the ones who have to live your life. You are.
And there's something far worse than disappointing the people around you. It's reaching the end of your life and realizing you disappointed yourself.
Because the greatest failure isn't trying and falling short, it's never having the courage to find out just how far you could have gone.
Photonic retweeted
It think it's stupid that "AI Bubble" gets used over and over. In infra names you have:
- 1-3x fwd P/E memory companies from Samsung to $ESMT. With HBM players now having hyperscaler multi-year price floor LTAs.
- Optical companies like $POET traded -$97M under net cash. Valuing the operating business very negatively, not even at $0.
- While AI companies with larger premiums continue to record demand over the next 3-5 years. Such as the new $20B LTAs signed w/ $COHR to $5B LTAs signed w/ $LITE.
Can someone in the media honestly see negative EV high-beta optical companies, where 2 years of burnrate would still value the company below $0.
or single digit memory companies with contracted demand + price floors years out and say that's a bubble?
Many of these names are extremely profitable today...
But obviously there's other elements inside the theme, such as:
- Certain startups like Instinct that look like a private valuation bubble.
- Leveraged Neoclouds that didn't finance properly
- and AI lab valuations and commitments, which should be viewed cautiously.
But everything gets grouped into one with the boogyman of "leverage" or "debt".
Yes, valuations can compress or correct from macro, potential regulatory uncertainty, or potential capex reductions.
But for the companies physically powering the AI buildout, it looks more like the Great AI Deleveraging of 2026...
Than anything like fundamental demand destruction.
As more earnings come out and free cash flow accumulates over time.
I'm confident in a recovery, especially in bottlenecks, and for markets to eventually discern durability + growth over frothy valuations tied to AI.
Photonic retweeted
I am expecting a push to the upside into the 700 range on QQQ
I think there is a very fair chance we move far beyond that, but I will cross that bridge if/when we get there.
I expect buyers to continue to defend downside moves… Hot CPI today, and we almost closed flat.
Sentiment on the app very pessimistic as well, people are getting too caught up on the fact that we are under some moving averages and NOT paying enough attention to the fact that we created a daily bullish FVG after sweeping out a multi month low
HIGHER.
