Nearly a 100k(contracts) down on an NBA game before opening line that you can hedge for 5-10% and collect free money.
8
4,285
The Celtics got Baylor Scheierman/Luka Garza/Hugo Gonzales playing significant rotation minutes and people with will still say they are legit title contenders.
Good regular season team but in reality they don't have nearly enough top end offensive scoring talent to go up against teams like Houston/San Antonio.
2
552
If you’re sharp in the NBA, there’s money to be made on PMs taking the other side of bad injury-news clickers overreacting to already priced-in news.
Taker buying Cavs at 56¢ after injury-news clickers liquidate is higher EV than taker buying Wolves at 40¢ after the Anthony Edwards availability news drops.
4
27
7,141
The Wizards are not that bad to be nearly +300 at home vs Raptors in the 2nd game of the season.
401
Free Alpha:
Last year's NBA playoffs had massive mispricings on PMs, with hundreds of K in liquidity at 10–20%+ EV prices before the previous game even ended.
The zig-zag effect was consistently mispriced/distorted, often before the previous game even finished or during it.
If you understood this, there were opportunities with massive liquidity, like Spurs G2 near 70¢ after losing to Minnesota, Cavs G3 below 50¢ before G2 ended vs Knicks, Thunder G2 in the low 80s, Spurs G5 Finals at 60¢ while losing G4, and Spurs G4 Finals in the low 40s.
Easily low six figures in profit at 20%+ EV, barring unforeseen injuries. And people will still say all edges on PMs are disappearing.
5
49
7,305
Every sharp bettor knows PMs are a golden era for scaling on your own.
There’s massive liq—often hundreds of k—on historically beatable lines (e.g. NFL Mondays, NBA overnights), much of it top-down/copied + massive rec flow.
At scale, you still often move the market, so there is zero incentive to sell services/picks.
After 14 years of publishing @MasseyPeabody CFB ratings, I've decided to take them private. I'll continue to update NFL ratings this season for @UnabatedSports but it will be my final year of involvement with the NFL ratings. Thanks to everyone who's followed over the years!
In the age of PMs anyone selling services/picks to any party(rec bettors or MMs) DOES NOT HAVE AN EDGE.
There’s $50–100k sitting on WNBA/MLS overnights on Kalshi, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
If you actually have an edge, you can very quickly scale your bankroll on your own.
A 3¢ spread on the Cowboys-Seahawks NFL preseason moneyline 10 minutes before kickoff is pretty rough for retail.
Kalshi has to address fees, tick sizes, and the two-sided order books in relation.
12
16
7,428
Max retweeted
Sequoia doesn't put $750M into Kalshi at a $40B valuation because they think Prediction Markets could go away in two years.
This thing is game-planned right down to the state-by-state legalization playbook that the OSBs ran post-PASPA.
Kalshi as a company hasn’t made it clear enough that operating via a normal “state-by-state gambling license” isn’t possible at all:
The 1961 Wire Act fragments liquidity by state—a big reason sports exchanges never took off before.
State regulators don’t seem to have a clue about this either.
Max retweeted
It seems like @GovKathyHochul and @NewYorkStateAG want to kill Prediction Markets by any means necessary, but that is a mistake.
Banning Prediction Markets will result in the following:
1) people will go back to betting offshore if they are long term winners
2) people will go back to betting on sportsbooks if they are long term losers, and the sportsbooks are incentivized to make them remain long term losers
3) Any hope of long term hedging utility and valuable economic data sourced from Prediction Markets would be gone
Taking a hammer to the industry is not the best way to watch out for consumers. Regulation, and working with all parties involved to ensure the best environment for all users, is how we should move forward.
It's been months since DK Predictions launched:
-No order book & limit orders
-No visible liquidity or volume
-Some one-sided markets
Poor execution, or are they intentionally trying to make PMs look like sportsbooks?
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40
8,298
Casino lobbyists saying “Kalshi should just get a gambling license” completely miss the point:
It's huge volume and unified liquidity are only possible because it operates outside the state-by-state sportsbook model, where licensing and the 1961 Wire Act fragment liquidity.
This quoted post is unavailable.
Max retweeted
Massive posted volume + thick tick sizes + high taker fees + lack of mass retail trading is a crappy combo for price-sensitive users/smaller market makers. Have to either take a bad price or wait forever to get filled/only get filled when adversely selected
