Engineer, Thematic Investor, Bon Vivant
Joined October 2010
- Tweets112K
- Following5.1K
- Followers4.4K
- Likes54.8K
‘Mega🦅 retweeted
Why is the stock market getting NUKED right now?
Google -12.6%, Amazon -7%, Intel -25%, Nasdaq futures down 2%+... and it's happening after these companies posted some of the best cloud growth we've EVER seen
Here's what you need to know as an investor:
1. Google missed on revenue and EPS, search growth slowed to 12%, and free cash flow came in at NEGATIVE $9.07B after $51.4B of capex in a single quarter. The stock had its worst day in 20+ years and lost about $500B in value
2. Amazon piled on last night. AWS grew 39% (fastest in nearly 5 years) and Amazon posted its highest operating margin ever... but trailing 12-month free cash flow went to NEGATIVE $42.4B, from +$14.8B a year ago. And it signaled capex goes UP again next year
3. Intel finished the job. Weak Q4 guide, a PC slump, and a warning that it'll burn cash this year. Stock -25% premarket, dragging every chip name down with it.
One thing to note from all of this:
Nobody is worried about AI DEMAND. Demand is the one thing every company confirmed. Google Cloud more than doubled, Azure grew 48%, AWS is accelerating and still can't build capacity fast enough
So to be clear, demand is NOT the issue. Any bear who's focused on demand should be muted, they are out to lunch
The fear right now is the BILL
The 4 big hyperscalers free cash flow was -$26B combined. 3 of the 4 are now spending more than their businesses bring in
So they're borrowing more and more to fill that gap. Amazon's long-term debt went from $66B to $173B in just 9 months
These companies used to be the biggest cash machines on earth, buying back their own stock. Now they're issuing bonds to keep building. THAT'S the shift the market is repricing and struggling to wrap their head around... even though FCF is expected to go positive by the end of next year, and significantly higher into 2028
But here's the ironic part. Every dollar of that capex is REVENUE for somebody else: the chip, memory and power companies building this stuff out. Yet $MU is still down ~5% this morning. The market is selling the spenders AND the companies getting paid... it makes no sense!
I'm seeing people on X call this the AI bubble popping. Once again, I don't see it. Bubbles pop when demand dries up. Here demand is accelerating and these companies are spending MORE because they can't build fast enough. What's being repriced is how long investors are willing to wait for the cash
I continue to believe these dips are for buying and we go much higher as the market realizes that this negative fcf is only short-term and the revenue is showing up in many different places from AI
This is not a bubble, this is one of the greatest investing opportunities of our lifetime and the market continues to give us gifts at these prices. Take a look at what dips I'm buying and what my real-time portfolio looks like here: link.milkroad.com/t5837z
Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets
ALT Watchlist showing GOOGL down 12.6%, MU down 5%, AMZN down 4.3% and other AI names lower
‘Mega🦅 retweeted
American kid goes to Africa for school, gets preferential treatment and welcomed with open arms.
African kid comes to America for school, gets bullied relentlessly and might even get shot for literally just minding his business.
Years later, act obtuse & play the victim.
CCTV footage has reportedly captured the moments surrounding the tragic shooting of 15-year-old Javits Frimpong in the Bronx. The footage could help investigators identify the suspects responsible for his death. This is heartbreaking. 💔 #JusticeforJavitsFrimpng
‘Mega🦅 retweeted
The father of a teen killed in a shooting in the Bronx spoke through tears as he remembered his son.
Read more: pix11.com/news/crime/teen-ki…
This is all to appease a specific religion. I wonder which?
Police have warned that Hallowe’en trick or treating may go against “religious beliefs”.
Councils and forces have issued “no trick or treat” posters that households can display on Saturday to deter unwanted visitors.
Official guidance for some areas states that these posters should be respected as some people may avoid Hallowe’en for cultural reasons.
🔗 telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10…
‘Mega🦅 retweeted
$INTC thesis is broken.
During the largest datacenter buildout in history:
> $intc failed to lock in substrate early because Intel didn't want to pay in full and someone else was willing to pay in full and took the supply. Same arrogance that lost them the Apple chip deal 10 years ago.
> LPT CEO went to Japan to beg suppliers.
> not only bottleneck on supply, they ARE now telling us that they are changing the 18A (consumer) lines to Intel3 datacenter/cpu production, which takes 6 months (if that) to do. (Yes they are telling us now when they should have done a year ago)
> CFO said fy2027 FCF will negative out loud (seriously)
Here's what takes the cake, they didn't want to pay in full for substrate, like the most important thing in making a chip. Like your whole fucking company makes chip. It's like a sandwich place running out of bread. Then they waste a bunch time making a deal with Quantum startup (btw LPT invested in series B) - more distraction, no revenue, more debts.
I held mainly to hear about 14A deal. The 14A deal was promised to be H2 2026 - nothing. LPT said they're talking to a strategic partners (yeah that's the same talk $ASTS says). If they had a deal, they say we have a deal worth X billion, but we can't announce who it is. Meanwhile, Elon is shopping with $TSMC.
So to summarize, Intel missed a once in a lifetime opportunity to sell as many server chips to datacenter as possible but they were totally out of positioned. This impacted the guidance from $17B estimated to 15-16B lasting to H2 2026. I didn't mention about the PC segment because that's out of their control. Jensen planned years ahead for the AI boom, that's how their revenue has grown Q/Q Y/Y on massive scale.
‘Mega🦅 retweeted
The Nasdaq 100 has now lost roughly $5 TRILLION in market value since October 6th.
The market is selling off because Wall Street is starting to seriously question how much money companies are spending on AI and whether those investments will actually generate meaningful returns. And no, It's not necessarily that AI demand is slowing down. The problem is that companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars building AI infrastructure, and investors are becoming increasingly concerned about how long it will take to make that money back.
Amazon and Google have added to those concerns following their earnings reports. Amazon is spending aggressively on data centers, chips, and AI infrastructure, putting enormous pressure on free cash flow. Investors are realizing that even strong cloud growth doesn't necessarily translate into stronger profitability when capital expenditures are growing this quickly. And with Google also disappointing Wall Street, investors are becoming much less willing to overlook the costs associated with the AI boom. Intel made things even worse. Despite reporting a relatively strong third quarter, the company's fourth quarter guidance was extremely disappointing. Revenue, earnings, and gross margin expectations all came in well below what investors wanted to see. The company has enormous opportunities from AI related demand, yet it's still struggling to translate those opportunities into sustained growth and profitability.
Interest rates are also making things worse. Higher borrowing costs make it more expensive to finance massive data center projects, while inflation concerns are making investors less confident about how quickly the Federal Reserve can ease monetary policy. That's especially painful for technology stocks trading at high valuations based on future earnings. What's interesting is that this isn't necessarily a broad market collapse. The Nasdaq is getting hit much harder than the Dow, suggesting that investors are rotating out of technology and AI related stocks and into more defensive sectors.
‘Mega🦅 retweeted
If you degross/lower net, Iran peace deal + booming Ant arr drop this weekend
If you don’t, war escalation + OAI $30b round falls apart + Ant arr not good enough black Monday
‘Mega🦅 retweeted
BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 extends losses to -3.6% on the day, now on track for its biggest daily decline since June 5th.
The index has erased over -$1.3 trillion in market cap today.
‘Mega🦅 retweeted
If you are psychologically ready to accept this, then you are ready to learn Chinese.
