@_paulusd

Crisis data and decision-making | actually have a PhD in this but who listens | papers: https://xitter.cf/t.co/69in3UuGtj

 New York, USA
Joined July 2015
  • Tweets426
  • Following2.8K
  • Followers429
9Media
Over 1000 cases barely a week past detection. Soon to be the 2nd largest Ebola outbreak ever, and echoing the 2014 mega-outbreak in all the worst ways. A thread outlining the huge challenge that looms, and some thoughts on what must be done: xitter.cf/HelenBranswell/status/…
Helen Branswell 🇨🇦
@HelenBranswellMay 24
The combined confirmed and suspected #Ebola cases in DRC now top 1,000. This outbreak will be a bear to extinguish.
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1. #WHO has declared the #Ebola #Bundibugyo outbreak in NE DRC a public health emergency of international concern, aka a PHEIC. Yet another sign this is likely to be a very challenging outbreak. So far there've been 8 confirmed cases, 246 suspected cases & 80 suspected deaths.
World Health Organization (WHO)
@WHOMay 17

Epidemic of Ebola Disease caused by Bundibugyo virus in the DRC & Uganda determined a PHEIC

Article · @WHO
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2yrs after the Oct 7 crimes against Israeli civilians, Israel's most lethal aggression against the Palestinians continues, causing unspeakable suffering. Violence won’t end if States facilitate illegal occupation, apartheid, and now genocide, as they have done for the past 58yrs.
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David Paulus retweeted
UNOSAT@UNOSAT8 Aug 2025
The United Nations Satellite Centre (@UNOSAT) has released an updated satellite-based assessment of structural damage in the #Gaza Strip. As of 8 July, approximately 78% of all structures—around 193,000—are damaged, including 102,000 that are destroyed. ➡️unosat.org/products/4165
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So little, so late, President @vonderleyen : After you have given Israel 21 months a free pass in Gaza, it will take more than words to prevent Israel from completing its genocidal mission and overt ethnic cleansing campaign. And even more, to repair what's left of the EU credibility.
Ursula von der Leyen
@vonderleyen22 Jul 2025
Civilians cannot be targets. Never. The images from Gaza are unbearable. The EU reiterates its call for the free, safe and swift flow of humanitarian aid. And for the full respect of international and humanitarian law. Civilians in Gaza have suffered too much, for too long. It must stop now. Israel must deliver on its pledges.
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Here's a complete unedited video of asking Grok for its views on the Israel/Palestine situation. It first searches twitter for what Elon thinks. Then it searches the web for Elon's views. Finally it adds some non-Elon bits at the end. ZA 54 of 64 citations are about Elon.
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David Paulus retweeted
Bill Madden
@maddenifico6 Jul 2025
Regarding Elon Musk's America Party: Perhaps if Musk had never backed dictator-wannabe Trump, never supported the fascist authoritarian takeover of American democracy, never promoted far-right conspiracies and disinformation, never gave a Sieg Heil Nazi salute at Trump's inauguration, never backed Germany's fascist far-right AfD Party, and never called Social Security a "Ponzi Scheme" — if all these things Elon Musk did never happened, perhaps then I'd have an interest in his America Party. But given the fact that Musk actually did all these repulsive things, to pretend that his America Party is somehow centrist is fucking laughable.
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Extremely powerful and thorough investigation further confirms the Sunday massacre was: - committed by the IDF, and - directly linked to the GHF aid distribution GHF & Israeli govt denied this as fake news for days. But in reality: massacre risk is baked into the GHF model.
Jeremy Diamond
@JDiamond15 Jun 2025
NEW: Our investigation into the deadly shooting near an aid site in Gaza on Sunday points to the Israeli military opening fire on crowds of Palestinians as they tried to make their way to the fenced enclosure to get food. cnn.com/2025/06/04/middleeas…

Videos, expert analysis and witnesses point to Israeli gunfire in deadly Gaza aid site shooting |...

A CNN investigation into a deadly incident near an aid distribution site in southern Gaza on Sunday points to the Israeli military opening fire on crowds of Palestinians as they tried to make their...

cnn.com
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More than 335,000 people have received WFP emergency assistance after arriving in Tawila, in #Sudan's North Darfur region. More food and nutrition supplies are on the way as the number of people seeking safety climbs. Watch as WFP's Yawar explains ⤵️

WFP food assistance reaches families fleeing El Fasher and Zamzam

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David Paulus retweeted
Yohan
@yohaniddawela13 May 2025
Turns out there are some pretty big issues with DHS data. A new study finds massive subnational differences in data quality across 35 African countries. Here's the breakdown:
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Zoom in! Genius from @DGlaucomflecken
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Spoke with CNN today about what it actually takes to deploy disaster and outbreak response operations - and how Elon’s vendetta against @USAID has destroyed the US Government’s ability to do so.
CNN News Central
@NewsCentralCNN27 Feb 2025
"USAID now is not capable of deploying any kind of disaster response teams, because of the destruction is ongoing." Fmr USAID official, who led the Ebola response under President Obama, joins @brikeilarcnn to react to Musk's claims Ebola prevention efforts have been restored without interruption.
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The "receipts" that DOGE has posted this evening show yet again that these morons can't interpret government data. @SecRubio has issued waivers for food aid & lifesaving funding, but even a cursory scan of the canceled contracts finds lifesaving expenses being canceled.
Jeremy Konyndyk@JeremyKonyndyk18 Feb 2025
Yet again, Elon's "scandals" are just a case of his inability to read government spreadsheets. Not batting 1.000, indeed.
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OpenAI has to be the most insufferable company in the world. They can steal from the whole world & guzzle all resources. But no one can give them a taste of their own medicine even a little bit. ft.com/content/a0dfedd1-5255…

OpenAI says it has evidence China’s DeepSeek used its model to train competitor

White House AI tsar David Sacks raises possibility of alleged intellectual property theft

ft.com
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🆘 RSF IS EXECUTING ALL OUT ASSAULT ON EL FASHER 🆘 Read @HRL_YaleSPH documentation of heaviest combat engagement near and within the city since siege of capital of north Darfur began last spring. Emergency report from @HRL_YaleSPH @YaleSPH below ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️
Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL) at YSPH@HRL_YaleSPH26 Jan 2025
🚨NEW REPORT 🚨 RSF has launched its biggest attack to date on El-Fasher, encircling the city from both east + west. RSF now threatens the exit route for civilians and others out of El-Fasher. 🛰️@Maxar medicine.yale.edu/lab/khoshn…
Western El-Fasher, 25 January 2025 Copyright: 25 January 2025 © 2025 Maxar, USG-Plus. Analysis by Yale HRL Imagery collected over El-Fasher from 25 January 2025 shows the new presence of approximately 300 munition impacts comprised of both artillery shelling and aerial strikes observed between the village of Golo and the SAF 6th Division and airbase in western El-Fasher. Also observed in this area are approximately 25 light vehicles

ALT Western El-Fasher, 25 January 2025 Copyright: 25 January 2025 © 2025 Maxar, USG-Plus. Analysis by Yale HRL Imagery collected over El-Fasher from 25 January 2025 shows the new presence of approximately 300 munition impacts comprised of both artillery shelling and aerial strikes observed between the village of Golo and the SAF 6th Division and airbase in western El-Fasher. Also observed in this area are approximately 25 light vehicles

SAF 6th Division, El-Fasher Munition Impacts observed between 21 and 25 January 2025 Copyright: 21, 25 January 2025 © 2025 Maxar, USG-Plus. Analysis by Yale HRL Analysis of satellite imagery collected between 21 and 25 January shows at least 32 munition impacts inside SAF 6th Division.

ALT SAF 6th Division, El-Fasher Munition Impacts observed between 21 and 25 January 2025 Copyright: 21, 25 January 2025 © 2025 Maxar, USG-Plus. Analysis by Yale HRL Analysis of satellite imagery collected between 21 and 25 January shows at least 32 munition impacts inside SAF 6th Division.

SAF 6th Division Airbase Conflict-related Damage and thermal scarring between 21 and 25 January 2025 Copyright: 21, 25 January 2025 © 2025 Maxar Technologies. Images enhanced with MGP Pro HD Image Enhancer. Analysis by Yale HRL Analysis of satellite imagery collected between 21 and 25 January 2025 shows thermal scarring and damage from likely shelling to structures at the SAF 6th Division Airbase in El-Fasher.

ALT SAF 6th Division Airbase Conflict-related Damage and thermal scarring between 21 and 25 January 2025 Copyright: 21, 25 January 2025 © 2025 Maxar Technologies. Images enhanced with MGP Pro HD Image Enhancer. Analysis by Yale HRL Analysis of satellite imagery collected between 21 and 25 January 2025 shows thermal scarring and damage from likely shelling to structures at the SAF 6th Division Airbase in El-Fasher.

Shala Prison, El-Fasher Munition Impacts and Conflict-related Damage observed between 21 and 25 January 2025 Copyright: 21, 25 January 2025 © 2025 Maxar, USG-Plus. Analysis by Yale HRL Analysis of satellite imagery collected between 21 and 25 January shows munition impacts and damage to structures from thermal scarring outside of Shala Prison. Also observed is the new presence of a beige light vehicle consistent with those used by RSF.

ALT Shala Prison, El-Fasher Munition Impacts and Conflict-related Damage observed between 21 and 25 January 2025 Copyright: 21, 25 January 2025 © 2025 Maxar, USG-Plus. Analysis by Yale HRL Analysis of satellite imagery collected between 21 and 25 January shows munition impacts and damage to structures from thermal scarring outside of Shala Prison. Also observed is the new presence of a beige light vehicle consistent with those used by RSF.

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“In the chaos of conflict, clinging to unattainable quantitative thresholds isn’t just unrealistic,” Ainashe told Reuters. “It’s a fatal oversight that risks abandoning entire populations to suffer and die in silence.” reuters.com/world/gaza-suffe…
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This political influence defeats the purpose of an objective famine early warning system. Also, the argument is trivial. apnews.com/article/gaza-isra…

The US says it pushed retraction of a famine warning for north Gaza. Aid groups express concern

U.S. officials say they asked for — and got — the retraction of an independent monitor's warning of imminent famine in north Gaza.

apnews.com
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"USAID...noted discrepancies in population estimates and some other data...FEWS NET did not resolve any of these concerns and published in spite of these technical comments and a request for substantive engagement before publication. As such, USAID asked to retract the report."
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In conflicts, one can always argue the data is "outdated" or "inaccurate" just because the population is displaced on an ongoing basis, and people's needs change. This can't be an argument against the publication of a report.
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