Wolf of EdTech since ‘06 | Investor @Uber | Alum @GoldmanSachs Swaps/Arb | 1896💜💚4235 @cryptopunksnfts | Boston Sports + LV Aces | “I invest in math, bro”
Best seats in the WNBA
Joined September 2021
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The day we’ve been waiting for - going to NYC to pick up our NFTiff’s irl 💜💚! We also were treated to an amazing private meal with Daniel Boulud at the Blue Box Cafe. Thank you @TiffanyAndCo and special thanks to @dt_chain and @alexarnault! – at Manhattan, NY
PunkCouple retweeted
There was no word for it at the time, but the reason Seinfeld was so good was that so many of its themes were what we now call memes. They were iconic. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
PunkCouple retweeted
A’Ja Wilson is 4x MVP that’s about to win her 5th, 3x DPOY, 3x Champ & just put up 38 & 16 followed by a 36 & 10 to beat an excellent Fever team in an attempt to go back to back (again).
She’s simply one of the greatest female athletes ever, and likely finishes her career as the unanimous WNBA GOAT.
PunkCouple retweeted
There is more parity in the WNBA and the league is more talented and balanced overall. But it's also true that Stewie and A'ja Wilson have won six of the last eight WNBA titles. That is also the story of the league. You gotta deal with two Avengers to try to get a ring. Again.
PunkCouple retweeted
Anthropic marketing: We built a god only we can control and gave it a “wet lab”
Muse marketing: Heyy girl I know you have dozens of unpaid parking tickets. Let’s get that cleaned up
PunkCouple retweeted
trump: “first of all, i want to welcome everyone to the first supreme intelligence summit. we used to call it artificial intelligence. terrible name. artificial means fake. why would we want fake intelligence? we want supreme intelligence.”
sam altman: “mr. president, under your leadership, openai has made tremendous progress toward supreme intelligence.”
trump: “tremendous.”
dario amodei: “anthropic believes supreme intelligence must be developed safely, responsibly, & in accordance with..”
trump: “see, he said it. supreme intelligence. very smart guy.”
dario: “yes sir.”
demis hassabis: “google deepmind has spent decades working toward general intelligence, but we now recognize that the technically correct term is supreme intelligence.”
trump: “google finally learned something.”
sundar pichai: “absolutely, mr. president. gemini is becoming more capable every day thanks to america’s leadership in supreme intelligence.”
trump: gemini. “beautiful name. two people. double intelligence.”
sundar: “yes. exactly.”
elon musk: “i’ve actually been calling it supreme intelligence privately for years.”
sam: “no you haven’t.”
elon: “you wouldn’t know because you stole a charity.”
mark zuckerberg: “mr president, meta is committed to making supreme intelligence available to everyone for free.”
trump: “mark, you look much stronger now.”
zuck: “thank you.”
trump: “something happened.”
zuck: “jiu-jitsu.”
trump: “supreme jiu-jitsu.”
satya nadella: “mr president, microsoft is proud to provide the infrastructure powering the supreme intelligence revolution.”
reporter: “mr. president, what exactly is supreme intelligence?”
trump: “it’s even better intelligence, very high IQ like my uncle who went to MIT.”
PunkCouple retweeted
If the new play is a personal or business agent stack that bundles inference + a VM + computer use + connectors + transactional capabilities, then it’s clear the prize to whomever wins this race will be to become the new mainstream OS for the agentic era.
PunkCouple retweeted
Think about the fact Stewie has never lost an NCAA game, a World Cup game or an Olympic game.
PunkCouple retweeted
would be mind blowing if an AI proof of Hodge is a general theory explaining why all Hodge classes are algebraic
possibly requiring a deep new bridge between topology/Hodge theory and algebraic geometry
and not just 10000 agents finding the one counterexample breaking Hodge
Holy, rumors are spreading everywhere that OpenAI is close to verifying a proof of the Hodge conjecture, while either OpenAI or Anthropic may be nearing a solution to Birch–Swinnerton-Dyer.
Both are Millennium Prize Problems that have resisted decades of mathematical research.
Verified AI-generated proofs of both would be a historic achievement for mathematics and a remarkable demonstration of AI’s ability to produce new scientific knowledge. And infact show that AI is capable of finding novel and creative solutions.
PunkCouple retweeted
If robotaxis can't beat Uber in San Francisco, they can't beat it anywhere.
Uber's own CFO just shared the table that makes the case. (Save this)
- Inside the streets where Waymo actually drives in SF, 15%.
- Across the whole SF metro, including everywhere it hasn't reached, 3%.
- Across the US, 0.9%. Same company, same month.
The only thing that changes is how much of the map you count.
The scary "Waymo has 15% of San Francisco" number is Waymo's best few square miles. The actual national market share is just 0.9%. Yet Waymo's valuation sits pretty close to Uber's.
But let's stay within Waymo's 15% market share in SF because it is the perfect market for robotaxis to thrive.
- SF has 2x the population density of LA and 4x the average big US city.
- 2x the median income.
- Trips 60% shorter than in LA.
- Tech-oriented population.
It makes SF hard to replicate anywhere in the world. And the last piece to that puzzle is regulation. California is one of the few places where driverless, paid robotaxis have cleared to run at scale, so San Francisco has become the home for AVs because it has the most AV-friendly rules in the country. Most of the US is nowhere close.
Now the part that should stop every Uber bear.
Even inside that perfect (there is no better market) zone, Waymo isn't taking over. Its share went from 16% in January to 15% in June, flat and even sliding, while Uber holds 61%.
If AVs like Waymo can't gain ground in the perfect market built for them, disintermediation might not be as easy as some people think.
This isn't Waymo failing.
It's scaling fast, 5 cities to 14 in a year. But adding cities is not the same as taking share, and everywhere outside SF is even harder: sprawling, lower income, longer trips, fewer tech people, slower regulation.
That realization makes my bull case even stronger. Plus, a sitting CFO replying to my critique point by point with data is rare. I put a lot of weight on management that actually engages the people questioning it, and this made me much more confident in the team. Thanks for taking the time, @_balaji_km.
The more time I spend on UBER, the more I want to own. You can watch my portfolio (link in bio) or just follow me @m0xt_ for more takes on Uber and AVs.
That is a reasonable way to look at things. However, it misses a few things:
1. Ridehailing is inherently a supply led business. When Uber or other players expanded coverage in our early years, we would scale out supply and service in all markets we entered from day 1. And you can do that quickly because human drivers are everywhere and infrastructure (gas stations, parking, maintenance) already exists on the ground! That supply scale helped us get to high levels of category position quickly, which in turn allowed us to serve more consumer demand cheaply and quickly, fueling a virtuous cycle for the marketplace. This was THE feature that fueled our scaling, while autonomous deployments are by definition likely to be supply and infrastructure limited and see a slower ramp. (See: teapaw.org/_balaji_km/status/1998…)
2. I shared the Yipit tracking as shorthand since it's publicly visible data. We make decisions based on our internal tracking (i.e. not Yipit) and are also tracking category position at a SF City and Peninsula level. We feel good about the trends we are seeing.
3. San Francisco has always been a special market. Expansion into newer markets is much harder, and we are seeing AV category position of low single digits or as low as 1% in newer markets like Miami. Here's the bigger cut of Yipit's city level tracking.
s23.q4cdn.com/407969754/file…
PunkCouple retweeted
If there was a pill that could...
- Keep my VO2max at 50+
- Keep my body comp exactly where I want it.
- Keep my mitochondria healthy, abundant & functional.
- Keep my metabolic health perfect - insulin-sensitive, TGs on point etc...
...all without having to do anything...
I wouldn't take it.
Because a life with lots of movement is simply a better life.