If the data are noisy, an aggressive model may chase false patterns. And this is not an academic, but a life lesson.
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Gambler’s Ruin problem is a brutal reminder that “50-50 odds” and “50-50 outcome” are very different things.
You: $10,000
Casino: $10,000,000
And a perfectly fair game. Unlike life.
Still, your chance of eventually bankrupting the casino is only 0.1%
#Probability #Mathematics
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"It is the situation which should give orders."
Mary Parker Follett's Law of the Situation, playing out a century after.
#jantarmantar #CJPProtest #PublicAdministration #AdministrativeThinkers
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Abhishek Kumar Singh retweeted
Zombie Multilateralism: Why the United Nations Must Change or Fade Away
By Abhishek Kumar Singh (@_sheksaab_ )
The UN’s inability to address the prevalent issues shows that it is no longer a “universal” body but a bystander to this new era.
Simply put, the UN of today cannot and should not be represented by the UNSC of yesterday.
A single veto-wielding power can stop international response dead in its tracks and totally frustrate the will of the overwhelming majority of the international community.
The idea that the UN still moves and talks, but has no soul or actual life-force left is akin to Zombie Multilateralism.
Read more: samvadaworld.com/featured/zo…
#UnitedNations #ZombieMultilateralism
Abhishek Kumar Singh retweeted
UAE bids farewell to OPEC: A “Crude” necessity or a “Refined” move?
By Abhishek Kumar Singh @_sheksaab_
The UAE’s shift likely reflects a broader objective of maximising returns from its hydrocarbon reserves before global fossil fuel demand begins to decline more sharply.
Rather than remaining bound by Saudi-dominated OPEC arrangements that constrain its production and revenues, Abu Dhabi appears to be opting for greater strategic autonomy.
Jorge León, a former OPEC official, has argued that the cartel would become “structurally weaker” without the UAE, particularly given the concentration of spare production capacity among a small number of members.
From once playing a role akin to a central bank for the global oil market to now striving to maintain internal cohesion, OPEC has traversed a remarkable trajectory.
Read more: samvadaworld.com/analysis/ua…
#OPEC #UAE
My thoughts on why the UN has become akin to "Zombie Multilateralism" and what needs to change is now live on @SamvadaWorld
#UN #UNSCReform #P5 #VetoPowers #Multilateralism
Zombie Multilateralism: Why the United Nations Must Change or Fade Away
By Abhishek Kumar Singh (@_sheksaab_ )
The UN’s inability to address the prevalent issues shows that it is no longer a “universal” body but a bystander to this new era.
Simply put, the UN of today cannot and should not be represented by the UNSC of yesterday.
A single veto-wielding power can stop international response dead in its tracks and totally frustrate the will of the overwhelming majority of the international community.
The idea that the UN still moves and talks, but has no soul or actual life-force left is akin to Zombie Multilateralism.
Read more: samvadaworld.com/featured/zo…
#UnitedNations #ZombieMultilateralism
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