Andrew Busch

Now you can see the tension in the industry!

At the Vegas Mandalay today for NECA's 125th anniversary. Acting as a 1-day consultant, I've found fantastic growth opportunities in this space. The construction sector has shifted into a data center and power boom inside a larger industry slowdown. Higher interest rates, diesel above $6, tariffs on copper, switchgear 2 years out. It's an overloaded circuit. Every time they reset a breaker, another one trips. But there are big growth opportunities for those who can anticipate where the next breaker will go. I'l add a slide that puts some of this in perspective. Check it out!

Today's jobs data was soft w/a meager 29k created in Sept. Plus, we had 60k of downward revisions. This takes the average job creation from 70k per month down to 50k per month. The graphic below is an example of the research created for every client. It gives a different viewpoint from most economists and provides key context to understand what's happening in the US economy. The picture shows job growth in the US since Liberation Day. It's very siloed. Siloed=fragile. And that's the risk.

In Fort Lauderdale today! Got a fantastic sunrise prior to keynoting for Polyglass. The building ecosystem is complex and challenging. Reshoring, data centers, & weather are all driving demand. Higher interest rates, labor shortages, material shortages, diesel prices are all driving costs. Overall, I'm optimistic, but there are serious headwinds. Let's see what the Fed thinks today to give a glimpse into near-term economic outlook.

Hard to track down this info from Redfin website, but I got it. It's great news if you're a buyer. It's awful news if you are a seller. Amazing shift in power. In November of 2021, there were 36% more buyers than sellers. Today, there are 51.3% more sellers than buyers. With mortgage rates at 6.78% 30-yr, I don't see this shifting any time soon. If rates stay here, the only way to get this to rebalance is for the price to decline.

Had a fun time presenting to TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor) at their Silicon Valley offices. I covered the forces driving AI, chips and future growth opportunities for the industry. I'll be publishing a paper later today on the research I did in this sector. To be honest, it was a humbling experience to meet some of the most brilliant minds in the chips space and hear their career stories. The coolest aspect: they were all humble about what they had accomplished and treated me as an equal. Simply Amazing.

And now for something to take your mind off the carnage in Gaza, SoH and SPCX, a fun summer movie! (Warning, not safe to watch after a meal) BTW, Economist did a very nice overview of IPOs and how they underperformed for 3 years ag broader market. youtu.be/BjtVXWa3tWI?si=Kg_t…

Getting ready to lead off MDRT annual conference at the Anaheim Convention Center with 7,000 attendees! Covering economy, govt. policy, trends & tech to show where these lead to growth opportunities. As an applied futurist, I don't just forecast, I share w/audiences what to do about what's coming. Actionable strategies to deploy to achieve growth. Can't wait to get on stage this AM!

Up in MN today for Sourcewell. They are a fascinating state agency doing something surprising: reducing the cost of govt! Lot's to discuss, check out the short video to see/hear! I'm an applied futurist=I tell you what I see coming and strategies to grow from it.

Was in Chitown this weekend prior to the Trump tweet about "progress." Love my old work city, lots of great businesses there despite IL politicians!