Center-Right Strategist. AGC Research. Previously: George W. Bush Admin, RNC
New York, NY
Joined September 2008
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“Other containers”
(like rubber bands).
BREAKING : Sources in Westchester now tell me some of the emergency bags were overflowing today at polling sites and that ballots had to be placed in other containers. I was told “there are taped up cardboard boxes of ballots. it’s crazy“ but we’re told all ballots are secure.
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2026 Exit Poll: Vote today was to…
Support Trump 16
Oppose Trump 43
Trump not a factor 41
2018
Support 26
Oppose 39
Not a factor 33
2010
Support 23
Oppose 37
Not a factor 38
2006
Support 22
Oppose 36
Not a factor 39
It appears as if most of Trump’s gains with Latino voters has come from married Latino men
Married Latino Men
2020: D+26
2024: R+21
All other Latino voters
2020: D+21
2024: D+21
The neighbor method has been used by a few pollsters in recent cycles (and decades ago by social researchers to measure racism).
The French Polymarket whale commissioned polls with a specific alternate methodology, the “neighbor method”
1. What a baller
2. What a killer example of how betting markets can surface contrarian, high quality signals
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2
1,518
CC Echelon Insights @PatrickRuffini teapaw.org/echeloninsights/status…
Voters are also more likely to say, by a 48-37 margin, they think most of their neighbors will be voting for Trump.
This includes a 23-point margin (51-28) among Independents.
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2024 was an “Indictment of political information complex”
Well said
Revenge of the average, everyday working class American. My reaction to Trump’s crushing victory on @cnn
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1,096
Kerry prediction market gains after 2004 exit poll release (%)
WI: +32
IA: +26
FL: +25
OH: +23
PA: +19
NH: +19
NM: +14
MI: +12
NV: +10
(Tradesports, 3pm to 541pm)
With polls in swing states closing shortly, Polymarket has Harris leading in just one, Michigan, tied in Wisconsin, and is lagging Trump in all other swing states including Pennsylvania and Nevada
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2,862
Dems: The Economy
Reps: The Economy
Why both parties believe they’ve going to win:
Dems:
-Selzer/heartland polling/WA primary->Blue Wall
-Dobbs/women
-final NYT/Siena polls (mostly)
-a belief that they have the late momentum
GOP:
-early voting data
-betting markets
-national polls tightening
-a belief that there will be another polling error
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1,844
Similar trend with 2024 early turnout
Rural +6.4%
Suburban +1.4%
Urban -7.8%
(change from 2020)
Also, early voting is up in rural areas. Down in urban areas. teapaw.org/adrian_gray/status/795…
Average EV outcomes (Trump-Harris)
Polling Aggregators: 287-251
Partisan Models: 274-264
Media Models: 272-266
Academic Models: 277-261
Prediction Markets: 287-251
Either the national polls are overestimating Trump vote or the state polls are overestimating Harris vote (or little of both)
Final national polls show virtually no change vs. previous surveys:
NBC News: TIE (nc)
ABC News/Ipsos: Harris +3 (down 1 vs. last poll)
Emerson: TIE (nc)
Atlas Intel: Trump +2 (nc)
Trump leads by 0.2% in the RCP National Average.
realclearpolling.com/polls/p…
