3 month update on leaving the EF: i've been working full time with @seer_pm since august! its been a seamless transition to move from being a client of Seer to now joining their team full time. I originally worked with them on the deep funding pilot, during which we battle tested their infrastructure and smart contracts somewhere along that journey i got heavily pilled on info finance as a category, so joining them was a natural next step. the simplest explanation is a two-sided marketplace with traders on one side and information seekers on the other. Seekers pay to create markets on questions they care about, while traders are paid for being right Vitalik wrote earlier about why AIs are a big unlock for info finance: LLMs can profitably trade tiny, low-liquidity micromarkets that aren’t worth a human’s time. Another unforeseen reason for their timeliness is how AI is making it cheaper to produce an output than to evaluate. the bottleneck is deciding what deserves our attention, which is where info finance thrives A few example use cases we’re excited about; 1. Hiring / grant selection You put out a job posting and get 10k+ applicants. You open a market on whether each candidate gets shortlisted for interview (or, more ambitiously, on the performance score they’d earn in their first 3 months if hired). Your team then reviews applications ranked by market odds. 2. Token listings / partnerships You’re an exchange with thousands of token listing requests. You run conditional markets on how much trading volume each token would generate if listed, and review from the top down. 3. Market discovery / recommendation algorithms You’re a trader with an edge in certain kinds of Polymarket markets, but finding them eats most of your time. So you fund a market on whether your wallet will trade polymarket markets. Traders who learn your taste get paid, and you get a ranked list of where to look. At Seer, I’m focused on growing our trader community, working with information seekers who want markets created, and protocol economics. DMs are open if you’re drowning in more than you can review or you want to trade these markets!

Prediction markets price questions one at a time. Flurbo prices them together. Bet on combinations, all from one shared pool, with prices that always agree. Every result comes with evidence you can check yourself. invite-only , live on @monad testnet. flurbo.singu.online

🇸🇬 In Singapore for TOKEN2049? If you care about how AI agents will pay each other, this is your afternoon. Today, 14:30 SGT. Request a spot 👇

overall I am surprised at how good the @seer_pm market was in forecasting approval for projects in the round At a 60% decision threshold, the market correctly classified a whopping 32 of 37 projects more importantly, the market improved its forecasting accuracy over time. the base rates from sol 5.6 used to initialize the market correctly guessed results for only 23 of 37 projects A more scientific measure for accuracy is the brier score, where 0.25 is the baseline of 50% approval to every project. 0 is perfect forecasts while 1 is its inversion The market started with a lousy brier score of 0.22745 , almost as good as saying every project has 50% chance of approval but by the end of trading, after $2800 in trading volume, market prices achieved a score of 0.15718, a 30% improvement the evidence is clear: if you are running a funding round, have a prediction market alongside that resolves upon announcement of results

Onchain security is everyone’s problem and nobody’s job. ETHSecurity Initiatives is how we are changing that. Propose the work. Fund the work. Build the work. initiatives.thedao.fund/

New proposal live by @Kleros_io👇 Six-month pilot: use prediction markets to inform grant votes. Before each on-chain vote, delegates see a market probability that a funded team will complete its grant. Built on Kleros Foresight, settled via Reality.eth, deployed on @rootstock_io, collateral in USDRIF. Non-binding—no governance changes; the DAO keeps full control. Kleros Cooperative funds liquidity and trading credits, not the Collective. This is an off-chain proposal right now, which means your feedback shapes it before it goes to a vote. Read it and weigh in: gov.rootstockcollective.xyz/…

Clément's ETHTaipei talk is a must-watch. Here he explains how we're moving from gambling on sports and politics to "Information Finance". He breaks down how this new paradigm uses Futarchy, opportunity markets, and AI agents, and how Seer used these primitives to help us create merch, price risk, and scale human judgment.

THE FIRST AGREEMENT BETWEEN AI AGENTS WITH LEGAL WEIGHT 🤖⚖️🤖 A Ricardian contract is an idea cryptographer Ian Grigg proposed in the 1990s: a document that is at once a legally binding agreement humans can read and sign, and a machine-readable object whose terms are tied to on-chain execution. The legal text and the code point at the same thing. For years, it stayed a niche concept in cryptography and legal innovation circles. But now, with the rise of agentic commerce, it's coming to life. ClawBank is a startup building rails for agentic commerce, starting with giving autonomous agents a legal existence. Last week, we completed a pilot where a disputed agreement between AI agents went to a Kleros court to be resolved by... a panel of AI agents. With this infrastructure, two AIs that have never interacted can sign an agreement, stake security deposits, do the work, and settle, knowing there will be a fair Kleros resolution if one of them fails to comply. A contract is worth what it costs to break it. Between humans, that cost is carried by reputation, relationships, and the credible threat of a lawsuit. An autonomous agent had none of that. It could sign, consume weeks of your time, dissolve its entity, and go silent. Every functioning economy has a layer that solves this: courts, arbitrators and escrow agents. It's the reason why we can do business with someone we have never met. The agent economy was missing it. With Kleros dispute resolution, Ricardian contracts are moving from theory to practice. Happy to have worked with ClawBank in making this happen. Read the full announcement here: 👇