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Smart-money flow, decoded
Joined November 2021
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🏆 the conviction board. live options flow — calls and puts, ranked 0-100 on 8 factors. 🔥 options returns after the board fired: $AAPL → +3,336%
$ASTS → +1,040%
$CRWV → +956%
$NBIS → +540% full log (wins AND losses) public. ✅ free · no signup · no email 👉 algoxflow.com/conviction
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$LLY is green 3.28% — and $2.7M of options premium got sold. Price and flow pointing opposite ways is the part worth looking at. One of them is early.
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We're cautious on $OKTA under 238.52. Spot 213 · flip 238.52 · call wall 225 The bars are what the other side is forced to hedge. That's the part we actually trade off.
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Reporting Fri, and what options are pricing: $NVT ±10.9% MGA ±7.5% LYB ±6.8% NWG ±6.4% BCH ±6.4% We measured 2,422 of these. Options overpriced the move 57% of the time.
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Closed $IWM 279C-10/27 for +213% 🟢 Posted live in the room — entry and exit, not a screenshot after the fact. 10 of 15 closed green today. We post the reds too.
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THE 16 BIGGEST EARNINGS BETS THIS WEEK Tiered by the move options are actually pricing: EXTREME (14%+) - APP HIGH (12-14%) - DDOG, NET, ALAB ELEVATED (9-12%) - SHOP, NTRA, PLTR, PS, NVT MODERATE (under 9%) - ANET, IDXX, NBIX, QCOM, EL $APP is priced to move 15% in one session.
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Closed $TSLA 402.5C-10/30 for +58% 🟢 Posted live in the room — entry and exit, not a screenshot after the fact. 1 of 3 closed green today. We post the reds too.
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$1.6M OF CALLS HIT PLTR TODAY The biggest options bets on the tape: CALLS BOUGHT (bullish bets) - PLTR, NVDA, XOM, MKSI, COIN PUTS BOUGHT (bearish bets) - QUBT, QBTS, DDOG, AAPL, SMCI Size is conviction. It is not intent.
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Most dealer gamma in the market right now: 1. $SPY +$1096M 2. IWM -$399M 3. QQQ +$167M 4. DIA -$143M 5. GOOG -$47M Positive means dealers absorb moves. Negative means they feed them.
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Forum Energy raises 2026 outlook to $900M-$920M revenue amid Premiere Torque Rings acquisition $SPY 751.47, above its 742.13 flip. Hedging fades the move.
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Calls vs puts in today's 8 biggest options prints: Calls: $955k across 3 prints Puts: $944k across 5 prints Largest: $XOM 162.5C for $725k. Positions, not confirmed direction. The feed doesn't say who's buying or selling.
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Biggest sweep on the tape right now: $GOOG 275 PUT 2027-01-15 $6.6M in premium Bought at the ask — someone paid up to get filled now rather than wait.
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$QQQ 689.59 — 0.08% above its zero-gamma flip at 689.03. Above it dealers damp moves. Cushion is 0.09x today's expected move. Net dealer gamma: +$292M
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$MSTR — 130.08 Put wall 125. Call wall 145. Which one gets touched first? 👇
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$MSTR over 5 years. Buy the close, sell the open: 393.36% Buy the open, sell the close: -63.29% Buy and hold: 81.11% The move happens while the market is shut. Not a strategy, spreads eat it, but that is where it lives.
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1 of 3 closed green today. $META 630C-10/30 -44% MU 935C-10/30 -50% TSLA 402.5C-10/30 +58% Entry and exit both posted live. Reds included — that's the point.
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Biggest moves the options market is pricing into 2026-10-30: 1. $TSLA ±1.38% 2. GOOG ±1.17% 3. QQQ ±0.86% 4. IWM ±0.66% 5. SPY ±0.59% That's the straddle, not a forecast. It's what you're paying for.
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$SNDK — our read, and what the crowd thinks: 1174.28 now — zero-gamma flip at null, wall overhead at 1300. 83% of the crowd is bullish. That tells you who's already in — the flip at null tells you what has to hold.
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Chevron and Exxon hit all-time highs as refining profits soar in reaction to Iran and Ukraine wars
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$AMZN is red 1.3% — and $9.7M of options premium got bought. Price and flow pointing opposite ways is the part worth looking at. One of them is early.
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$TSLA over 5 years. Buy the close, sell the open: 63.53% Buy the open, sell the close: -38.73% Buy and hold: 0.20% The move happens while the market is shut. Not a strategy, spreads eat it, but that is where it lives.
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