Ex-@StgMiraMedia @OpenSociety @CEU but that's a while ago. Originally studied E-European history. Love elections, maps, charts. Also on Bluesky, better there.
Holland - Hungary - Spain
Joined March 2009
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Brazilians in the U.S.:
34% Lula
66% Bolsonaro
Brazilians in Canada:
64% Lula
36% Bolsonaro
poliwave.com/br/live/preside…
“A lot of people don’t keep up with politics, but they do follow fanclubs and fan accounts"; and over 600 fanbase groups backed Lula. “I’m not sure whether to open this speech with ‘comrades’ or ‘fandoms from all over Brazil’,” he told a rally this month:
theguardian.com/music/2026/o…
Gratuitous "where do you stand" poll about today's (likely; I don't want to jinx it) election results
75%Vučić defeat😍 Lula win😍
25%Vučić defeat😍 Lula win😬
0%Vučić defeat😬 Lula win😍
0%Vučić defeat😬 Lula win😬
20 votes • 8 hours
A 51% to 39% win for the Student List, I heard on the news just now. I'm a little stunned. Hadn't expected Vučić to go down this badly! An almost Orbán-sized defeat for an Orbán-like, arguably even worse leader. Good news is still possible in 2026!
As always (see also: Hungary), the only way to stop strongmen from deploying shenanigans is to win big
"Serbia’s snap parliamentary elections on Sunday saw exceptionally high voter turnout ... Long queues formed outside polling stations throughout the day." Turnout reached 64.9% by 6 pm, compared to 51.9% at the same time in 2023
balkaninsight.com/2026/10/25…
"The Broad Front only registered as electoral coalition less than a week ago, but has already suffered its first split"
Chunta withdraws in Teruel to avoid splitting the left-wing vote, arguing the joint agreement left this decision to them; IU rebels and runs separately instead
IU, bowing to the legal inevitabilities of the agreement it had itself signed, accepts that it cannot in fact run separately in Teruel. Just like earlier on there was a flutter about how it would run separately in Valencia, until it didn't. #chaosagent
eldiario.es/aragon/politica/…
Putin: "Since time immemorial, the people living in the south-west of what has historically been Russian land have called themselves Russians.. modern Ukraine was entirely created by [the Bolsheviks].. by separating, severing what is historically Russian land"
Zelensky:
Putin "just proved that his aggression toward Ukraine was never really about NATO.. [His] speech showed that he has concocted his own view of history and world affairs. In his view, Ukraine’s independence is an anomaly – it’s a state that should not exist"
theconversation.com/putins-a…
Putin's motivations for this war were and remain driven by irredentism, and no change in NATO policy would have changed that
xitter.cf/wartranslated/status/2…
It's also such a Twitter-poisoned world view. You have to be truly, pathologically, chronically online to think it's "fashionable, high-status opinions" rather than wealth, power and the connections that come with them that make you part of "Britain's social elite"
"The Economist has assembled data on millennials’ incomes for 32 rich countries. In just three—Italy, Greece and Japan—are millennials worse off, in terms of inflation-adjusted income, than previous generations at the same age."
"Millennials in the remaining 29 countries in our sample have higher real incomes than past generations. In some, including Australia, Britain and France, intergenerational progress has admittedly slowed...An American millennial is just as likely to be a manager as a Gen-Xer was at the same age."
economist.com/finance-and-ec…
A good reason to still not get your hopes up about polls showing Dem leads in red states.
(Though one could quibble about whether winning by eg 51 to 49 really counts as a "firm lead")
That could be bad news for Dems in a year when the Senate is decided by red states. If polling errors follow the average historic trend, Democrats' leads in Texas and Alaska could be wiped out while Iowa and Kansas move firmly into the Republican column economist.com/graphic-detail…
By 53% to 40%, Americans now again believe it's the Democrats, rather than the Republicans, who are "the party of the working class"
nytimes.com/2026/10/21/us/po…
Ultimate KSČM tier politics: MEP Konečná has joined the far right Patriots for Europe group
Former Podemos deputy Lucía Montejo has had enough, decrying the "suicidal strategy" the party has pursued "for years now" as she resigns her membership:
eldiario.es/asturias/exdiput…
Facing the spectre of the ultraright entering government, "Operation ‘Save Soldier Montero’ has once again blown up the viability (and credibility) of the project".
"To describe it as a circus falls short," she writes, expressing "shame, disappointment, impotence and .. rage".
Why Podemos prioritized Montero over leftwing unity:
In "a surprise announcement this Monday," Podemos has erased any trace of its name at pazcasaytrabajo.es. "The campaign team puts all its trust in the image of its lead candidate Irene Montero".
elpais.com/espana/2026-10-19…
A feature of left-wing governance? In the city of Badajoz, at least, average incomes in poor neighbourhoods rose considerably in 2019-2024, while rich neighbourhoods stagnated.
elpais.com/economia/2026-10-…
