The Risk Of Irrelevance ! Akash Prakash writes in the @bsindia The good news before all the bad news - Akash believes all this data is more a contrarian indicator & not a reason to turn more negative on India. Read on - from the column 👇 1. "At only 10%, we are half what we used to be and three countries — Taiwan, Korea and China — are 70% of the EM index. Do you really need to bother with India? Even getting India wrong will not really move the needle. Over the last 10 years, India has anyway underperformed the EM indices by about 180 basis points annually. Even on a 20-year basis, India has just marginally outperformed" 2. "Second, many investors have come to the conclusion that India may not deliver enough absolute returns. Their calculations are as follows: The Nifty index in rupees has delivered about 10.5% p.a. over the last 20 years. Assuming a capital gains tax impact of about 15%, this brings the return down to about 8.9%. Then, assuming a near 4% rupee depreciation (the average over the last 20 years), this brings the return down to about 6% in dollar terms" 3. "All allocators are upset about the capital gains tax. They do not pay these taxes in any other major jurisdiction. It drops projected long-term annualised returns by about 2% & that is a huge difference when comparing countries over long holding periods." 4. "India is also seen as the biggest global loser from artificial intelligence (AI), as our key advantages of demographics and a skilled white-collar workforce lose relevance in an AI-first world." 5. "India is also caught in a no-man's land, not cheap enough for value investors to pile in but not growing fast enough to attract growth investors either." #Nifty #BankNifty #Trump #IranWar‌ #Rupee #LTCG