Political machinations, Geopolitics concerning Europe & transatlantic relations. Often political economics rants. Eurodollar and US foreign policy explainer.
Immora
Joined September 2015
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In today's political scenes, there's eerie type of chaos that lurks just behind a facade of order - and yet, deep inside the chaos lurks an even eerier type of order waiting to establish itself.
Beijing will eventually take control of German and other foreign operations inside China, and the groundwork is already visible. The 2021 Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law gives the state legal cover to retaliate against foreign firms, exit bans have trapped foreign staff, and the 2023 counter-espionage raids on consultancies like Mintz and Bain showed how fast a business can be pressured when relations sour. Volkswagen, BASF, Siemens and Mercedes have tens of billions of euros of plant, tooling and process knowledge sitting inside Chinese borders, and none of it is portable.
Railways show where this ends. China's high-speed fleet was built on technology transfer from Kawasaki (CRH2, a Shinkansen derivative), Siemens (CRH3, the Velaro), Alstom and Bombardier, the price of access to the Chinese market. The state then merged the pieces into CRRC, which now bids against its own teachers. It beat Japan for the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed line in 2015 and has built or supplied rail across Laos, Kenya and Ethiopia, usually on Chinese state financing that Siemens and Kawasaki can't match.
Machine tools, power equipment, autos and chemicals follow the same sequence. Foreign firms bring the know-how in, Chinese firms absorb it, and the foreign firms are squeezed out of their own plants. German exporters lose the Chinese market first, then the markets they once sold into around it.
A speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping at a ceremony commemorating the 90th anniversary of the victory of the Long March of the Chinese Workers' and Peasants' Red Army has been published as a booklet. #XinhuaNews
Germany's export engine won't return to its old role. China spent two decades copying what Germany shipped, and now sells the same machinery to the same buyers at lower prices, crowding Germany out of third markets. Meanwhile Industry 4.0 tooling (automation, additive manufacturing, digital twins) lets producers build closer to the customer, so the long-haul export model that made Germany rich has less to offer even where Chinese competition is absent.
This chart is simply mind-blowing. It’s a perfect visualization of the German “green” energy transition though. Let’s take a look.
1. Germany increased its installed energy generation capacity since 2000 by a whopping 120%, yet German electricity generation fell by 13%. Isn’t that a paradox? The answer is simple, renewables do not generate electricity constantly, as required for an industrial nation, so they need parallel energy-generating infrastructure, e.g., gas. That’s the main reason countries that moved to renewables, like Germany or the UK, have the highest energy prices for industry and households.
2. Based on fairly conservative estimates, Germany has spent about €400 billion on this “green” energy transition, an eye-watering amount.
3. Higher energy prices have made German energy-intensive industries uncompetitive. Industrial production imploded, and countless well-paid jobs disappeared. This explains the reduction in energy demand and generation.
4. By shutting clean nuclear plants while keeping coal and gas, German energy production generates about 10 times more emissions than France’s. You read that right: 10 times more. If Germany had switched off coal power plants first instead of nuclear, by now it would have avoided CO2 emissions equivalent to Berlin’s emissions over almost a century. Keep that in mind next time you chew on a paper drinking straw.
5. Worse still, production moved from Germany to Asia, where the same products generate far more emissions in manufacturing and shipping. A Chinese-built car shipped to Europe causes about 70% more emissions than one built in Germany, cement production causes twice as many.
Honestly, can you name a bigger absurdity than the German “green” energy transition? They spent a fortune to ruin their industry and hurt the climate badly. Isn’t it hilarious that German greens seriously claim other countries will follow the German way? In which parallel universe do these people live?
Why is anyone surprised? He paid off favela leaders to get votes…probably did it again
He’s only going to places he knows will win. Pure narcissism
The president’s constant presence on the campaign trail carries major risks. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Brazil is uninvestable.
Shift your money to countries that aren’t corrupt and spending on payoffs for votes
Don't sell your Brazilian shares just yet. A changed political landscape and big fiscal challenges will force Lula to be less lefty and more pragmatic and market-friendly, says @JPSpinetto (via @opinion) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
No time in history has a socialist been less lefty in spending money lol
Don't sell your Brazilian shares just yet. A changed political landscape and big fiscal challenges will force Lula to be less lefty and more pragmatic and market-friendly, says @JPSpinetto (via @opinion) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Strongmen across Central and Southeast Europe are losing elections, and the run of defeats stops where the ruling party and organized crime are the same network.
Hungary went first. Tisza, led by Péter Magyar, took 138 seats in the 199-seat parliament while Orbán's Fidesz won 54, and Orbán conceded, ending his 16 years in power. Turnout hit a post-communist record near 80 percent.
Serbia is next. Aleksandar Vučić conceded after the student-backed Student List won the parliamentary election. He put the students at 135 to 140 seats against about 105 for his Serbian Progressive Party, though the figures are preliminary. The movement grew out of months of student protests over corruption allegations and a lack of accountability. Magyar and the students beat entrenched machines the same way, by turning corruption into the only question on the ballot.
Edi Rama in Albania is a different case, and I wouldn't expect him to be next. Orbán and Vučić ran on patronage and media control, which voters can switch off. Rama's government has been tied by critics to something harder to vote out.
Ex-deputy PM Arben Ahmetaj, speaking from exile, pointed the finger directly at Rama over corruption schemes, and his accusations included allegations that Rama is involved with mafia bosses. Rama met Luftar Hysa, a Sinaloa-connected figure sanctioned by the US, and says he met him just once. Tirana mayor Erion Veliaj was arrested in February 2025, and SPAK has indicted deputy PM Belinda Balluku. Rama himself hasn't been charged.
My read is that the mafia and narco gangs that have prospered under his government are protecting him, and they have no interest in a transition. Students can outvote a party. They can't outvote the people who bankroll it and carry guns.
Serbia’s student-backed Student List won the parliamentary election, with Aleksandar Vučić conceding defeat after years of rule by his Serbian Progressive Party.
Elsewhere, Lula won Brazil’s presidential runoff, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said three-way talks with Russia and the US were planned for November.
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Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said they had attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pumping stations and Riyadh airport, as rising hostilities choke oil supplies and threaten to erupt into a larger conflict reut.rs/3WqoUyD
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Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro said that he would not concede defeat to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who secured a fourth non-consecutive term reut.rs/4zbvqbb
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China's Xi opens Communist Party plenum, aims for firm governance measures reut.rs/3VV3Y2K reut.rs/3VV3Y2K
John James would be an excellent choice for VP or even President for GOP
Join @MikeRogersForMI & I TOMORROW, Monday Oct. 26, in Grand Rapids for our GOTV Rally with @RobertKennedyJr! 🇺🇸
RSVP HERE: ticketstripe.com/johnjamesgr…
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Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado returns to her home country after nearly a year in exile, greeting ecstatic supporters at a church in the city of Barquisimeto. u.afp.com/SyoC
Relying on the “honor system” to predict politics has to be the dumbest thing on earth. It’s no wonder queer activist Nate Silver freaked out when that fake polling company blew up.
