NFL & CFB projections, draft analytics, and Rev Share/NIL modeling for @TheAthletic. The game isn't played on a spreadsheet — but it helps to have one. 📊
Joined July 2011
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The Bills are sitting at 16% to win the Super Bowl in The Athletic Playoff Simulator — the highest of any team.
Is this finally the year they get past the Chiefs?
The Seahawks also closed the gap on the 49ers, while the Browns are only at 48% to make the playoffs despite being 5-2.
Full updated odds are here:
NFL playoff odds here:
nytimes.com/athletic/interac…
Lions over the Packers is a bigger deal for the NFC North than you think.
I had Detroit projected more favorably than the Packers to begin the day — now the Lions are 73% to make the playoffs, Packers 41%.
Updated playoff odds are live in the Athletic simulator:
The Athletic Playoff Simulator here:
nytimes.com/athletic/interac…
Giants and JJ McCarthy just took care of business in Houston — 27-21 in OT to move to 4-2-1 and stay alone atop the NFC East.
That win bumped their playoff odds to 51%.
Full playoff picture with The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator.
Full playoff odds here:
nytimes.com/athletic/interac…
Which Week 7 game are you most confident in?
My model has a few clear disagreements with the market, including one total I think is too high and a late window game that looks closer than the line.
Full breakdown is in the new War Room episode:
My daughter just asked me if I work with @JasonKelce after seeing him on the broadcast.
Apparently she has seen us work together.
I think Arch made up his mind where he was going with that ball before the snap. The safety read him and then he made a horrible throw…woof.