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Woke up to the good news that our paper (w/ @nreinholtz) on group sequential designs is accepted at @JCRNEWS !
Want to learn more about designing more efficient and more informative studies? This blog post summarizes the key insights from our paper:
quentinandre.net/post/more-e…
Quentin André retweeted
This DW clip is actually a pretty good summary of the french socioeconomic situation, i am impressed. Much better than some other content put out by german public broadcasting.
If it always was like this we would have way less problems with slopulism.
If taxpayers are convinced that Prop 40 is a one-time tax, and thus won't move their assets, then California's rational incentive is to repeat the tax, as it generates tax revenue w/o capital flight. Knowing this incentive, taxpayers can't rationally believe it's a one shot tax!
Replying to @gabriel_zucman
Let’s be clear: this is a highly inappropriate way to model the effect of Prop 40 on taxpayer behavior.
For one, it’s a basic violation of rational expectations, a cornerstone of modern economics.
In Jaros and @joshrauh world, the billionaires act irrationally: they respond to a policy that does not exist and will never exist.
Economics students around the world are taught this is not an appropriate way to model behavior — but apparently in this context (fighting Prop 40) it’s OK.
Playing shop with my soon-to-be 4 year old. Whenever I hand her a coin, she swipes it across her pretend counter and goes "beep", as if using Apple Pay.
Between that and kids doing pretend phone calls with a "flat hand", I'm feeling old...
Quentin André retweeted
Meanwhile the Engineers are just lighting themselves on fire to see what happens.
COMIC ◆ smbc-comics.com/comic/reacti…
PATREON ◆ patreon.com/ZachWeinersmith
STORE ◆ smbc-store.myshopify.com/
#comics #humor

ALT 4-panel SMBC comic update. A header above the panels reads "reactions to AI automation." The first two panels show an artist and a mathematician working, and reacting to AI by saying "but I don't want to lose my job. I love it." The third panel shows an economist shouting "LONG HAVE I AWAITED THIS HOUR! DESTROY ME, EFFICIENCY AND LET UTILIZATION-ADJUSTED TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY RISE ON THE WIND OF MY ASHES!" The final panel shows the economist getting his face blasted off as the artist and the mathematician stare perplexed.
Quentin André retweeted
Replying to @SzymonSyp
anti-Ukraine/NATO, tariffs are a goddamn awful policy, dictatorial tendencies, undermining institutions left and right, anti-immigration populist stuff is long-term very negative for the economy (even if you don't want to admit that it's just morally wrong). That's five.
Rare day in the Trump administration
: brazen corruption being punished.
Serving as the United States Ambassador to Greece has been the honor of a lifetime. I will forever be grateful to President Donald J. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for entrusting me with the extraordinary privilege of representing the greatest country in the history of the world.
From my first day as Ambassador, I have worked tirelessly to advance President Trump’s America First agenda, strengthen our strategic alliance with Greece, and deliver meaningful victories for the American people.
During my tenure, we have helped secure historic agreements to expand American liquefied natural gas exports to Europe, advanced the Vertical Corridor to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, strengthened our defense and security partnership with a critical NATO ally, and expanded opportunities for American businesses and investment throughout the region.
I am especially proud of the role our Embassy has played in strengthening American energy dominance, advancing economic cooperation, and ensuring that the United States remains the indispensable leader in Southeast Europe.
These accomplishments are a testament to President Trump’s bold leadership, Secretary Rubio’s commitment to American diplomacy, and the extraordinary men and women who serve our country every day.
I also want to address the recent allegations against me. These allegations are false, and I intend to vigorously defend my name, my reputation, and my integrity. I have dedicated my professional life to fighting for justice, standing up for what is right, and defending the values that make America exceptional. I will not allow false accusations to define my decades of public service.
My gratitude and respect for President Trump and Secretary Rubio remain unwavering. I am proud of what we accomplished together, and I will always be a loyal supporter of President Trump and his mission to Make America Great Again.
While my time as Ambassador may be coming to an end, my commitment to President Trump, the America First movement, and the country I love will never end.
It has been the honor of my lifetime to serve the United States of America. My deepest heartfelt appreciation to the people of Greece for their hospitality, partnership, and welcoming me with open arms. God bless President Trump, God bless our incredible diplomats and service members, and God bless the United States of America.
oui, on avait remarqué que vous confondiez souvent.
L’argent de l’Union européenne, c’est notre argent !
Il faut que le gouvernement aille solliciter les financements européens auxquels nous avons droit, notamment pour faire face aux catastrophes climatiques.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Le tribunal a confirmé qu'il y a bien eu un « système » au RN, une pratique « organisée, centralisée » pour « optimiser » et dépenser de façon « intégrale » les enveloppes auxquelles les députés avaient le droit au pour payer leurs assistants parlementaires
touteleurope.eu/vie-politique-…
sudouest.fr/politique/mari…
ouest-france.fr/politique/rass…
A pre-registration should serve a single, simple, purpose: Ensure that the T1 error rate is controlled at the desired alpha level.
Less pedantically, it means you pre-register a procedure for collecting and analyzing data. Not any expected pattern!
Replying to @OlegUrminsky
We should be running studies that are informative (not a foregone conclusion)! That means pre-registering interpretation of what the study tests. As an aside, I find in practice that pre-registration of data collection and analysis procedures is what provides the most value. Fin.
BTW, I'm largely in agreement with @OlegUrminsky here. I should have probably quote-tweeted the original tweet.
Quentin André retweeted
Chers lecteurs. Nous appelons à y aller mollo sur les attaques contre Thélyson Orélien.
D'abord, il existe une chance non nulle (même si elle est infime) qu'il soit de bonne foi.
Ensuite, Orélien a sans doute joué dans une zone d'ombre morale, exploité une période de flou au cours de laquelle nos institutions et nos mœurs (ainsi que nos prix littéraires) ne sont pas encore adaptées à cette technologie nouvelle et transformatrice. Mais il ne pensait sans doute pas que le succès de son livre prendrait une ampleur nationale ; et s'il nous a paru important de signaler l'arnaque, il nous parait important d'avoir aussi de la compassion et de l'empathie pour lui, voire le soutenir dans cette période difficile qu'il doit vivre. Le mieux serait bien sûr qu'il se remette à écrire !
Les leçons de cette affaire dépassent son cas personnel, et c'est sur cela que nous devons nous concentrer.
Nous avons signalé ce bouquin parce qu'il a du succès, mais c'est loin d'être le seul. Sur ce réseau, des centaines d'hommes politiques et de comptes de slop font rédiger leur posts par IA, sans dire qu'il s'agit d'IA, trompant sciemment leurs lecteurs à longueur d'année. Et cela fait longtemps que les top des ventes de livres sur Amazon (premier distributeur de livres en France) sont trustés par des bouquins rédigés directement par IA, parfois très grossièrement, et avec un moins bon résultat que celui de Thélyson (qui a donc une forme de mérite à avoir réussi à produire une narration cohérente ayant donné satisfaction à beaucoup de lecteurs).
L'intelligentsia parisienne sous-estime encore sans doute les capacités des IA, et n'utilise pas ou peu les LLM (et ne traîne pas sur Linkedin), c'est pour ça qu'elle n'a pas reconnu les formules stéréotypées. Formules qui, si nous n'étions pas lassés de les voir sans cesse, nous plairaient sans doute : les modèles de langage les ont apprises parce qu'elles plaisaient aux humains qui ont supervisé leurs entrainements par RLHF !
Dans les commentaires, certains témoignent ne pas voir l'intérêt de l'authenticité ; peut être que ce qu'il faut retenir de cette polémique, c'est que d'après l'ampleur du scandale, la majorité accorde beaucoup d'importance à l'authenticité. Si vous considérez que vous apportez de la valeur en faisant écrire vos ouvrages par IA, faites-le ! Mais au moins, mentionnez-le, pour ne pas trahir vos lecteurs, car le mensonge, lui, est moralement condamnable.
Quentin André retweeted
On the French AI novel: so many reflexively claiming bias or saying "you can't detect AI writing". I will donate $1000 to the charity of your choice if you show me a single literary French text of 1000+ words, pre-2022, with Internet Archive link, that is 100% AI on Pangram. 1/2
Quentin André retweeted
C'est fou le nombre de gens qui prétendent avoir testé leur journal intime dans Pangram et reçu un score 100% IA. Bizarrement, personne ne trouve d'article *disponible publiquement* publié avant 2021 et identifié 100% IA par Pangram. Ça me fait penser à cet ami qui racontait à chaque rentrée scolaire être sorti avec une fille magnifique en colo, fille qui n'avait malheureusement pas Facebook.
Reading through this thread and Anthropic's report, what strikes me is how low-tech all the forensics tool are, and how little they tell us about the model's "goals" and "thoughts".
This is very, very bad. Top AI companies have little insights into their models.
anthropic.com/research/align… how many incidents did we have and not notice....
Quentin André retweeted
I actually did a comic *4 years ago* on why "rogue ai" poses no threat: smbc-comics.com/comic/artifi…
































