Associate Professor Banking and Finance,Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, SWF,ETF,Islamic Finance, CNBC, @Natgasweather, Energy Working, Foresight Economics
Verona,Italy
Joined December 2014
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Safe havens or war hedges? #oil #gold #natgas during Iranian war. Below the link of the publication
pdf.sciencedirectassets.com/…
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
SK Hynix:
"According to recent estimates from market research firms, Global CSP CapEx is projected to grow by more than 60% in 2027, while secured power capacity is also expected to increase by over 100% year over year. More notably, this growth will not stop next year."
"The global AI data center infrastructure market is expected to grow at a high annual growth rate of 40% until 2030."
$GOOGL $META $MSFT $AMZN $NVDA $SKHY
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
$SKHY: "Demand remains so strong that customers' volume requirement is more than double that of what we can supply today."
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
BofA: we are incrementally more positive on memory ($MU $SKHY & $SNDK) after the meetings, with Micron’s mgmt increasingly seeing CY27/28 to be tighter than CY26.
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
Significant beat for SK Hynix:
🔹 Revenue: $78.9B (Est. $74.8B) 🟢; +328% YoY
🔹 Oper Profit: $62.8B (Est. $58.5B) 🟢; +632% YoY
🔹 Oper Margin: 80%; +3,300 bps YoY; record high
🔹 QoQ: Revenue +32% / Oper Profit +38%
$SKHY
SK HYNIX $SKHY Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $78.9B (Est. $74.8B) 🟢; +328% YoY
🔹 Oper Profit: $62.8B (Est. $58.5B) 🟢; +632% YoY
🔹 Oper Margin: 80%; +3,300 bps YoY; record high
🔹 QoQ: Revenue +32% / Oper Profit +38%
Q4 Guide:
🔹 DRAM Bit Growth: Mid-20% QoQ
🔹 NAND Bit Growth: Mid-single% QoQ incl. Solidigm
Q3 Pricing & Volume:
🔹 DRAM ASP: High-20% QoQ; bits ~+10% QoQ
🔹 NAND ASP: Mid-20% QoQ; bits slightly lower QoQ
Profitability:
🔹 Gross Margin: 85.7% (Est. 85.2%) 🟢
🔹 EBITDA: $66.1B; 84% margin; +486% YoY
🔹 EPS: $41.07; +205% YoY
Financials:
🔹 Cash: $86.3B; +311% YoY
🔹 Interest-Bearing Debt: $11.9B; -34% YoY
🔹 Net Debt-to-Equity: -32%; -2,800 bps YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $41.3B; +281% YoY
🔹 Total Assets: $295.5B
2027 Market Outlook:
🔹 DRAM Demand Bit Growth: +mid-20% YoY
🔹 NAND Demand Bit Growth: +high-teens% YoY
🔹 2027 CapEx: To rise significantly vs 2026
🔸 Memory demand expected to outpace supply through 2030
Product & Technology:
🔹 HBM4: Expected to surpass HBM3E in HBM shipment and revenue share in Q4
🔹 2027 HBM: Negotiations finalized; profitability gap with conventional DRAM expected to narrow meaningfully
🔹 M15X: Ramp-up accelerating to full capacity by end-2026
🔹 321L NAND: Over 50% of domestic capacity in Q4
Business Highlights:
🔹 LTAs: Signed with 14 key customers incl. major global CSPs; standard 5-year term; over 50% of 2027-2028 capacity secured
🔹 Q3 Dividend: ~₩20,000/share (~$15.08), incl. a ₩10,000 special dividend from realized Kioxia gains
🔹 Share Acquisition: ₩20T (~$15.1B) for the quarter, incl. ~₩10T for executive & employee compensation
🔸 Quarterly revenue topped ₩100T for the first time
Note:
🔹 Net Profit: $30.0B; +216% YoY
🔸 Includes a $24.6B non-operating loss: a $17.3B investment-asset loss and an $8.8B FX loss as the won strengthened
FX used for USD conversion: $1 = ₩1,326 (mid-market; Oct 27, 2026)
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
$SKHY just reported some absolutely RIDICULOUS earnings!
The company reported $78.9 billion in Q3 revenue, beating estimates of $74.8 billion and growing 328% year over year. Operating profit surged 632% to $62.8 billion, with operating margins hitting a RECORD 80%. Even more impressive, revenue jumped 32% sequentially while operating profit increased 38%. DRAM pricing rose nearly 30% quarter over quarter, while NAND pricing increased roughly 25%.
But here’s where things get really interesting. SK hynix expects memory demand to OUTPACE supply through 2030. The company is forecasting DRAM demand growth in the mid-20% range next year and NAND demand growth in the high teens. It’s also signed long-term agreements with 14 major customers, including large cloud providers, securing more than 50% of its planned capacity for 2027 and 2028. Meanwhile, HBM4 is expected to surpass HBM3E in shipment and revenue share during Q4. This is exactly why I’ve been so bullish on the memory trade. AI infrastructure spending is creating enormous demand for memory, and manufacturers are benefiting from both higher volumes and significant pricing power. And with more than half of SK hynix’s capacity for the next two years already secured, this isn’t just a short term demand spike. We’re seeing customers lock in supply YEARS in advance.
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
SK hynix, $SKHY reports earnings tonight. The Street expects operating profit of ~₩77tn on margins near 80%. A year ago it was ₩11.4tn. That’s nearly 7x in twelve months (unreal growth btw).
The reason is HBM. Every Nvidia GPU needs it, SK hynix has about half the market and it’s first in line for HBM4 on Vera Rubin. Memory prices are still rising across the board DRAM up ~22% and NAND ~15% last quarter. The beat is mostly priced in. What moves the stock is what mgmt says about 2027 pricing and HBM4 volumes. PT $400. Overweight.
Because SK Hynix is canceling these repurchased shares rather than holding them in treasury, the resulting share count reduction drives direct earnings per share compounding. Reflecting these cancellation, Goldman raised its EPS estimates across the forecast horizon boosting 2026E by +4%, 2027E by +10%, and 2028E by +10% solidifying SK Hynix's structural rerating as an AI infrastructure cash generating machine…
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
SK HYNIX SAYS IT HAS SIGNED LTAS WITH 14 KEY CUSTOMERS, INCLUDING MAJOR GLOBAL CSPS, ON A STANDARD 5-YEAR TERM, HAS SECURED LTA VOLUMES OVER 50% OF TOTAL CAPACITY FOR 2027 AND 2028, AND EXPECTS 2027 CAPEX TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO 2026
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
SK HYNIX SAYS ITS CAPEX INCLUDES EQUIPMENT INVESTMENT FOR ADVANCED NODES, ALONGSIDE ACCELERATED INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IN KOREA AND OVERSEAS
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
SK HYNIX SAYS ITS Q3 DIVIDEND PAYOUT STANDS AT 14 TRLN WON, AND THAT IT PLANS TO RETURN THE MAJORITY OF REALIZED GAINS ON ITS KIOXIA INVESTMENT THROUGH A SPECIAL DIVIDEND, PAID IN Q3 AND AT FY2026 YEAR-END
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
WOW! $SKHY just crushed it!!!
Revenue came in at $78.9bn against $74.8bn expected, and operating profit at $62.8bn against $58.5bn. That's an 80% operating margin for a freaking memory company. Memory prices didn't cool off either…DRAM was up 28% and NAND 25% in a single quarter.
The biggest number in the release isn't a beat imo though. SK hynix signed five year agreements with 14 major customers, covering more than half of its capacity for 2027 and 2028. Remember the debate we wrote about last week, that memory stocks always peak when price growth peaks.
When customers lock in supply five years out, they're telling you they can't get enough. Memory has stopped behaving like a cycle and started behaving like infrastructure.
The guide backs it up too fellas.
Q4 DRAM shipments are up 25% from Q3, and 2027 DRAM demand is up 25% year over year. Add $86.3bn of cash and the shareholder return question takes care of itself.
The memory king just got stronger. PT $400. Overweight. Limit up!!
SK hynix, $SKHY reports earnings tonight. The Street expects operating profit of ~₩77tn on margins near 80%. A year ago it was ₩11.4tn. That’s nearly 7x in twelve months (unreal growth btw).
The reason is HBM. Every Nvidia GPU needs it, SK hynix has about half the market and it’s first in line for HBM4 on Vera Rubin. Memory prices are still rising across the board DRAM up ~22% and NAND ~15% last quarter. The beat is mostly priced in. What moves the stock is what mgmt says about 2027 pricing and HBM4 volumes. PT $400. Overweight.
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
Anthropic already has $132bn of cash.
Add a ~$140bn IPO, $77bn of committed funding from Google, Amazon and Broadcom and cash from a business growing 14x a year and it could be sitting on roughly $400bn by the end of 2027.
That's more firepower than almost any company on earth, aimed at one thing and one thing only: compute.
In a race where the winner is whoever can build the most, Anthropic is about to have the deepest pockets in AI outside of Big Tech itself.
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
Anthropic just destroyed one of the biggest bear cases against the entire AI industry.
According to its IPO filing, Anthropic had approximately $131.7 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short term investments as of June 30, 2026. That is an insane amount of liquidity for a company that's investing billions into AI infrastructure while continuing to grow at an incredible pace. But what's even more interesting is that Anthropic is now generating positive operating cash flow and has started turning an operating profit. During the first half of 2026, the company generated approximately $3.9 billion in operating cash flow and $1.6 billion in adjusted operating income. In Q2 alone, it generated nearly $1 billion in GAAP operating profit.
This is important because one of the biggest concerns surrounding frontier AI companies has been how much capital they'll need to continue scaling. A lot of people have assumed these companies would need to constantly raise money just to keep up with their infrastructure spending, but Anthropic's financials are starting to challenge that assumption. Now, Anthropic still has enormous infrastructure commitments ahead of it, so that $131.7 billion isn't necessarily money it can freely spend on anything. And while its cash position is impressive, the company also has significant liabilities and convertible preferred stock on its balance sheet. But here's what I find interesting. Anthropic is growing at an incredible pace, its profitability is improving, and it already has enough liquidity to support a significant amount of future investment. The IPO looks increasingly like an opportunity to strengthen its balance sheet and fund additional expansion rather than something the company desperately needs to survive.
And I think this has much bigger implications for the AI infrastructure industry. If companies like Anthropic can eventually finance more of their infrastructure spending through cash generated by their own businesses, it could make the AI investment cycle much more sustainable than people currently expect. That's especially important for companies supplying the compute, memory, networking, and power that these frontier labs will continue needing.
Anthropic just filed for its IPO and some of these numbers are absolutely insane.
The company generated $16.3 billion in revenue during the first half of 2026, compared to just $1.1 billion during the same period last year. That's incredible growth but what I find even more interesting is how much money Anthropic is spending to sustain it. Anthropic reportedly lost $80.7 billion during the first six months of 2026, although roughly $72 billion came from non cash accounting charges related to convertible financing. So the actual cash burn is nowhere near that headline number. However, the company still spent nearly $9 billion on compute and infrastructure during that period and has at least $518 billion in longer term infrastructure commitments.
And now we have Anthropic reportedly agreeing to spend up to $120.5 billion on computing capacity from SpaceX through 2029, with payments potentially reaching $3.1 billion per month once all the capacity is delivered. We're talking about a company spending billions every single month just to secure enough compute to remain competitive. Meanwhile, Anthropic is expanding its revolving credit commitments from $3.3 billion to $15 billion and increasing its minimum liquidity requirement from $500 million to $5 billion. Essentially, the company is securing access to significantly more financing while making sure it has enough cash available to support these enormous commitments. Another interesting detail is that Anthropic's seven co-founders will retain 50.1% of the voting power through a special Class F share that carries no economic rights. So even after going public, the founders will maintain control over major corporate decisions regardless of how much outside investors contribute.
Personally, I think Anthropic is an incredible business, but I've also been saying for a while now that frontier AI labs are being valued way too aggressively. Growing revenue at this pace is impressive, but eventually investors are going to want to see how much of that revenue actually turns into profits after paying for all this infrastructure. And this is exactly why I continue to prefer the infrastructure side of AI. Whether Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, or another frontier lab comes out ahead, they all need compute, memory, networking, and power to keep scaling. The AI labs are spending hundreds of billions competing against each other, and the infrastructure companies are the ones collecting those checks.
Eccoci qua, ora, come sempre, a pregare per il caldo
CARO ENERGIA 🔥⚡️
La settimana si apre con un prezzo del gas al #TTF🇳🇱 sopra i 97 €/MWh i.e. in zona 100 €. Questo significa un prezzo del gas al PSV (mercato gas italiano 🇮🇹) sopra i 100 €/MWh ed un prezzo dell'energia elettrica in zona 270-280 €/MWh.
#VeryBadNews
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
Dell CEO Michael Dell, on memory (DRAM/HBM) and semiconductors:
“I think it’s going to get worse in 2027 based on what I see right now.
The memory crunch.
Yes. And the reason is that it takes about four years to build a new memory factory.
There are a number of them under construction.
Micron, for example, we’re a big Micron customer.
[Those factories] will start producing in 2029. Maybe 2029 everything will be fine.
What I see is the way people are using this technology now is very different than it was even a year or two ago.
With agents.
Yes, exactly.
And so the demand is growing faster than supply. It takes four years to build these factories, so I don’t think that the shortage is going to quickly resolve itself.”
$DRAM $DELL $MU
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
Europe keeps winning... It's entering winter with record-low gas reserves, while Asia is bidding up LNG prices.
Europe refused to refill its storage because it fell for the weekend war narrative and thought prices were about to plummet...
Well, prices are reaching 4-year highs.
The world's biggest LNG exporter is the US, and its export contracts are flexible... meaning cargoes go to the highest bidder.
Ships can leave the US and redirect their routes to whoever is willing to pay the most.
At some point, any price has to be paid... That's what happened in 2022.
Brace for inflation.
Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. retweeted
Nomura Report on Global Memory- 10.19.2026
Nomura's central thesis: The market is overestimating risks surrounding AI financing, slowing AI revenue growth and Chinese memory competition, while underestimating the earnings and cash-generation opportunity of memory manufacturers.
They expect memory supply constraints to persist through at least 2028, supporting an extended period of favorable pricing and profitability.
→ AI infrastructure demand is accelerating.
Nomura forecasts:
- AI data center capacity grows from 34 GW in 2026 to 74 GW in 2028 — approximately 118% expansion in two years.
- AI's share of facility capacity increases from 54% to 76%.
- Total global data center power usage rises from 60 GW in 2025 to 115 GW in 2028.
- Heavy-agent workloads become an increasingly important source of AI power demand.
Nomura considers market concerns surrounding CXMT's progress in 4F² DRAM technology excessive.
Its position:
- CXMT's technological progress does not invalidate the broader supply-constrained memory thesis.
- The breadth of AI demand is being underestimated.
- Global memory supply constraints should persist through at least 2028.
This is particularly relevant to the scarcity thesis for Micron and SK hynix.
They make stock recommendations for Samsung and SK Hynix
🔽 🔽 🔽
Outer Ninth's 3 most important takeaways:
1. The memory scarcity thesis remains intact.
Nomura's expectation of tightness through at least 2028 supports the possibility of an extended earnings cycle, rather than a short-lived pricing spike. This is constructive for Micron, SK hynix and broader memory exposure and inline with our views.
2. The separation between infrastructure spending and economic capture is becoming increasingly important.
The difference between semiconductor suppliers' cash accumulation and data center operators' indebtedness reinforces one of our core research principles: Participation in AI growth does not necessarily translate into equal financial returns.
I've been speaking to you guys more about this recently and I research it thoroughly- debt structure and capital return to shareholders will matter more heading into 2027.
Companies that control scarce, essential components may capture a disproportionate share of the economics.
3. For our memory ecosystem, the most important insight is the potential for an extended period of scarcity-driven earnings growth and economic capture by upstream semiconductor suppliers.
Companies highlighted on our latest memory ecosystem research w/c I reposted this evening:
SK Hynix 하이닉스 000660.KW | $SKHY
Samsung 삼성 005930.KW
Micron $MU
Sandisk $SNDK
ESMT 晶豪科 3006.TW
Nanya 南亞科 2408.TW
Kioxia キオクシア 285A.JP | $KXIAY
Winbond 華邦電 2344.TW
Phison 群聯 8299.TW
AP Memory 愛普 6531.TW
Etron 鈺創 5351.TW
Seagate $STX
Penguin Solutions $PENG
Western Digital $WDC
Transcend 創見 2451.TW
PSMC 力積電 (6770)
ETFs- $DRAM & $DISK
