Husband. Daddy of three. Director of Civitas Center for Public Integrity at @JohnLockeNC Tweets are my own. RT ≠ agree. I mute @$$hats of all political stripes
North Carolina, all of it
Joined November 2010
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Andy Jackson retweeted
Pro-Abdul El-Sayed ad sparks fury with claim Israel to blame for high grocery prices: 'Case study in antisemitism' trib.al/wayKuRe
At Voter Registration Changes, Dems are up, Reps are down for the second week in a row. Strangely unaffiliated is also down.
Changes for the week:
D: +3,074
R: -49
L: +4
G: +5
U: -330
Data link below #ncpol
This and other data are posted on this week's Election Data Dump post at Locke.
johnlocke.org/10-26-election…
This week's election data dump is up.
Republicans have made inroads into Democrats' early turnout advantage, but their voter registration numbers are horrific.
Link below. #ncpol
North Carolina House District 9, in Pitt County, is rated R+3 (lean Republican) in the Civitas Partisan Index.
Click on the link below for ratings of all 170 North Carolina General Assembly districts. #ncpol
Andy Jackson retweeted
USPS recommends all absentee ballots that are being mailed be sent by Tues Oct 27 wsbtv.com/news/local/usps-ur… (If you are mailing USPS I suggest placing it in an official USPS blue box or handing it to a desk clerk inside the post office) see images for USPS speed-up just started. #ncpol
Jonathan D. Miller is the Libertarian Party candidate in NC Senate District 16.
The district, in Wake County, is rated D+18 (safe Democratic) in the Civitas Partisan Index.
That also happens to be my district. I do not plan to vote for Miller.
link below #ncpol
You can get ratings for all 170 North Carolina General Assembly districts in the Civitas Partisan Index.
johnlocke.org/introducing-th…
Regular registration is closed, so this should be same-day registration. Negative registrations are party-switching and regular list maintenance (moved or died).
Data is from the State Board of Elections and organized by the John Locke Foundation
carolinaelections.com/regist…
Beaufort was the answer to my recent question about which county, other than Hyde, is allowed to open early voting sites (other than the county board of elections office) that can operate non-standard days and hours.
Early voting in NC this week is at 368 sites Mon-Weds, then Thurs-Fri 370 sites as Beaufort Co adds sites in Aurora and Belhaven. 358 of the sites are open 8 am to 7:30 pm, 10 just business hours. Saturday Oct 31 all 370 sites open 8am to 3pm when all early voting ends. #ncpol statewide site list: s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.go…
Sunday's early voting helped Democrats pad their lead a bit. Most of the counties that hosted early voting then lean Dem.
The question now is whether Republicans will eat into the Democrats' advantage this week like they did last week.
Raw numbers and data link below #ncpol
Democrats were over Republicans by 26.2 percentage points last Monday. It is now 18 points. Democrats usually have about a 10-point advantage.
Left chart: current turnout by registration
Right chart: Sunday, Oct 25, early votes by county.
carolinaelections.com/tracke…
At Vote Tracker, North Carolina election officials have accepted 1,583,182 ballots (+38,508 from yesterday).
Today's cumulative averages (raw numbers in the graphic)
D: 41.6% (+0.1 from yesterday)
U: 34.6% (+0.1)
R: 23.6 (-0.2)
Data link below #ncpol
Sunday voting is generally good for Democrats since the counties that run early voting are Democratic. Below are all the early votes for Sunday, Oct. 25.
Data is from the North Carolina State Board of Elections and organized by the John Locke Foundation
carolinaelections.com/tracke…
Andy Jackson retweeted
Who are North Carolina's 499,000 unaffiliated early voters? Their past primary ballots give a hint.
40% last took a Democratic ballot in the past four statewide primaries, 28% a Republican one, and 32% took no party ballot in any of them, mostly because they didn't vote in those primaries.
The most reliably Democratic ones are turning out faster than their Republican counterparts: half of the unaffiliated voters who took two or more Democratic ballots and no Republican one have voted, against a third of those who took two or more Republican ballots and no Democratic one.
A primary ballot isn't a vote for that party in the general election.
A 63/57 split in the NC House is roughly what someone with a knowledgeable look at the Civitas Partisan Index would expect. Link below. #ncpol
