Antfeed

So P Equity Research picks up a screenshot from Antfeed, and an hour later Elon Musk is talking about Chinese RAM. 👏👏👏 source via @antfeedapp

DRAM, NAND, AND AI: WHAT KOREAN CHIP RESEARCH REVEALS ABOUT THE SELLOFF Samsung and SK Hynix just plunged 16.1% and 20.2% in a single week as fears of tighter U.S. data center regulations rattled semiconductor stocks. But the underlying memory market may be telling a different story. Korea's Hana Securities argues that the selloff has already priced in much of the regulatory risk, while 2027 earnings forecasts for Korean memory makers are actually being revised higher. What's particularly valuable is the research behind that conclusion. Hana's comprehensive 30-page report is packed with detailed charts covering DRAM and NAND spot and contract prices, supply and demand, CAPEX, Korean memory exports, and earnings forecasts. It's the kind of granular, locally sourced Korean semiconductor research that international investors don't always get to see. Are investors overreacting to Washington's political uncertainty? And what do the underlying DRAM and NAND numbers actually tell us about the next phase of the memory cycle? We summarized Hana Securities' research on Antfeed, along with English translations of selected charts from the report. Check out my other X posts for my analysis of some of those charts. Catch the full recap on Antfeed. Totally free on iOS and Android! #Samsung #SKHynix #Micron #DRAM #NAND #HBM #Semiconductors #AI #MemoryChips #Korea

TRUMP ACCEPTS ELECTION RESULTS FOR FOUR DAYS BEFORE REMEMBERING WHO HE IS 🙃

source: trendforce / hana securities something interesting happens when you compare charts 81 and 82. server DRAM production is projected to nearly TRIPLE between early 2024 and late 2027, yet the modeled supply surplus ratio stays around zero through much of 2026 and 2027. so even with all that additional production, the forecasts aren't showing a major server DRAM SURPLUS. pretty important distinction when people assume that record memory capex automatically means oversupply is coming.

source: KITA / hana securities look at the DRAM chart in the top left. korea's average DRAM export value has gone from roughly $3–4 per unit in 2025 to nearly $20 in late 2026. that's around FIVE TIMES what exporters were getting per chip just a year ago. and it helps explain those earlier charts where DRAM export revenue was exploding even though the number of chips being shipped barely changed.

ALLEGED CHINESE SPY REPORTEDLY PITCHES INVESTORS ON REVOLUTIONARY AI BUSINESS MODEL CALLED "I KNOW A GUY AT NVIDIA" Alice Huang and her partner reportedly told investors they had no problem securing Nvidia GPUs for a major data center project. per FT / Antfeed

ALLEGED CHINESE SPY REPORTEDLY BOASTED OF NVIDIA GPU ACCESS, WALL STREET WONDERS WHY IT BOTHERED WITH EXPORT CONTROLS 🙃

source: KITA / hana securities SSDs are a little different. export value is approaching 600% year-over-year growth, but unlike NAND, actual SSD shipment volumes are also growing, roughly DOUBLING from a year earlier. so there's clearly a VOLUME component here, not just higher prices or more expensive products. so yes, korea is exporting a lot more SSDs, but the money it's making from those shipments is growing MUCH faster.

TRUMP TO 60 MINUTES: AI SAFETY MATTERS, BUT BEATING CHINA COMES FIRST In his latest 60 Minutes interview, President Trump shared his views on the intensifying AI race between the U.S. and China. After meeting Xi Jinping, Trump claimed America is roughly one year ahead of China in AI. But he pointed to a major obstacle that could determine who wins: electricity. Trump also weighed in on the risks of superintelligence, AI safety regulations, and why he believes America cannot afford to slow down. Is the AI race becoming a competition over energy rather than technology? And how far should Washington go to stay ahead of China? We recapped Trump's full 60 Minutes interview on Antfeed, including his comments on China, AI, the economy, and foreign policy. Catch the full breakdown on Antfeed. Totally free on iOS and Android! #Trump #China #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #DataCenters #Energy #Superintelligence #TechPolicy

NVIDIA SHARES PLUNGE AS INVESTORS REALIZE COMPANY'S BIGGEST SECURITY VULNERABILITY MIGHT NOT BE IN ITS CHIPS

source: KITA / hana securities look at the bottom two charts. according to hana securities, korea's DRAM export value is up roughly 500% year over year, while the actual number of chips being exported is slightly DOWN. so this isn't about shipping six times as many DRAM chips. the average export value per chip has gone through the roof, which suggests this memory boom is being driven much more by pricing and product mix than by the actual number of chips being shipped.

source: trendforce / hana securities look at samsung's DRAM and NAND capacity numbers. according to hana securities, samsung's DRAM capacity is expected to jump from 535,000 wafers a month in early 2024 to 855,000 by late 2027. meanwhile, NAND capacity actually goes the OTHER way, from 360,000 down to 320,000. so samsung is expanding DRAM pretty aggressively while its NAND wafer capacity is shrinking. but fewer NAND wafers DOESN;T automatically mean less output. newer 3D NAND can squeeze more storage onto each wafer.

what if the thing that finally breaks DRAM pricing power isn't supply and demand, but washington stepping in? if korean memory makers are still pulling in 80% margins through 2027 and maybe 2028, i have a hard time believing american big tech will just sit there and take it. wouldn't be shocked if big tech's lobbyists are already working on this behind the scenes. i wonder if anyone in the LEE government is actually planning for this possibility.

source: trendforce / hana securities DRAM spending is heading toward $100 billion in 2027, but building capacity and actually bringing it online are two VERY different things. hana securities points out that ASML and Lam Research have been struggling to keep up with equipment demand, with cleanroom availability and component shortages becoming major bottlenecks. so even with record capex, actual DRAM supply could take much longer to catch up. which means we could end up with a massive investment boom AND tight memory supply at the same time.

source: DRAMeXchange / hana securities the NAND charts are telling a pretty different story from DRAM. 512Gb TLC spot prices have already fallen from around $23 to $16, while 1Tb TLC/QLC prices have slipped from roughly $32 to $26. meanwhile DDR4 and DDR5 spot prices are still climbing. so when people talk about the memory supercycle, i'd be careful treating DRAM and NAND as if they're still moving in the SAME direction. #kioxia

source: bloomberg, db securities oracle's 5-year CDS spread went from roughly 40-50bp in much of 2025 to a peak of 329bp on october 20, 2026. that's a massive repricing of credit risk, and most of it happened BEFORE the midterm elections. so whatever investors are worried about, it clearly didn't start with the blue wave.

TRUMP CONFIRMS MAJOR AI EXECUTIVE DID SOMETHING BAD, FIXED EVERYTHING, NO FURTHER DETAILS AVAILABLE - CBS 60 Minutes Interview

TRUMP SAYS DANA WHITE PRESS SECRETARY OFFER WAS JUST A JOKE, WHITE HOUSE JOB SEARCH NOW OFFICIALLY A COMEDY 🙃

NVIDIA SHARES DROP 5% AS AI INDUSTRY CONFRONTS UNEXPECTED HUMAN ERROR 🙃 pre-market

JENSEN HUANG'S BIGGEST RISK MAY NOT BE NVIDIA'S CHIP BUSINESS. IT'S WASHINGTON Jensen Huang has spent years building influence in Washington. Could a personal controversy put that at risk? Former Bloomberg columnist Tim Culpan, who has covered Taiwan's tech industry for 26 years, argues that Nvidia's biggest risk may be political. According to Culpan, people in Taiwan were more shocked by the woman's alleged ties to Chinese intelligence than by the affair. Neither those ties nor any information leak has been confirmed. Culpan expects little impact on Nvidia's chip sales, but Huang's influence over U.S. AI policy and chip export restrictions could weaken. That's especially important as Nvidia navigates U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China. Could Huang lose political influence without losing his job? And how much does Nvidia's future depend on his Washington connections? We recapped Tim Culpan's analysis on Antfeed, alongside more AI and semiconductor coverage from Korea and around the world. Free on iOS and Android! #Nvidia #JensenHuang #AI #Semiconductors #China #Trump #TechPolicy #ExportControls

MIXED CLOSE IN TECH: MEMORY LEADERS INCH HIGHER WHILE SAMSUNG ELECTRO-MECHANICS REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE SK Hynix ₩1,143,000 ($847.26) ▲ 11,000 (+0.97%) Samsung Electronics ₩189,600 ($140.54) ▲ 900 (+0.48%) Samsung Electro-Mechanics ₩843,000 ($624.88) ▼ 27,000 (-3.10%) SK Square ₩721,000 ($534.45) ▼ 3,000 (-0.41%) #StockMarket #Semiconductors #AsiaMarkets #SouthKorea #Equities