ArbPrediction is the execution-ready arbitrage terminal for prediction-market traders: see the two legs, available edge and exact markets to bet on. 100% FREE
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Joined July 2026
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Same AI race, two prices.
Best AI model at end of 2026, Google (Gemini):
Kalshi YES 64.9¢
Polymarket NO 29¢
Total 93.9¢ for a $1 payout, ~4.7% net after fees.
Both settle on the LMArena text leaderboard, but check times and tiebreaks differ.
arbprediction.com
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After an oversubscribed IPO, offer price, first trade and close can all differ. Check which one an Anthropic market settles on. ArbPrediction is a free scanner for Polymarket and Kalshi price gaps.
ANTHROPIC'S $90 BILLION IPO IS ALREADY MULTIPLE TIMES OVERSUBSCRIBED
Anthropic ($ANT) has reportedly attracted several times more investor orders than shares available, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the offering.
The Claude maker aims to raise up to $90.4B through its IPO and private placement, potentially making it the largest public listing in history.
Anthropic is targeting a $1.4 trillion fully diluted valuation, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the offering.
Demand is being driven by large institutional orders, while some investors are reportedly already reselling portions of their allocations at premiums.
The AI IPO frenzy is accelerating before Anthropic even begins trading on Nasdaq
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Prediction market trader explaining a position to friends:
"I bought NO at 3 cents."
"Why?"
"Because the market is wrong."
"And if it is not?"
"Then I lose 3 cents. Emotionally, a lot more."
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Thursday or Friday matters if you hold an Anthropic IPO market with a deadline. Some settle when shares are priced, others on the first trade, and those can land a day apart.
JUST IN 🚨: The Wall Street Journal reports that Anthropic could begin trading next week, on Thursday or Friday, under the ticker $ANT. The day after the IPO, @TradrETFs expects to launch $ANTT (2X Long) and $ANTZ (2X Short).
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85% isn't certain, and it depends on the contract. A 25bp hike and any hike settle differently if the Fed goes 50. ArbPrediction is a free scanner that shows when Polymarket and Kalshi disagree.
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Polymarket has Barcelona as the 2027 Champions League favorite at about 24%, with PSG near 19% and Arsenal near 14%. Who lifts the trophy?
0%Barcelona
0%PSG
0%Arsenal
0%Someone else
0 votes • Final results 35
That 97.4% is for any hike. If Waller gets his 50bp, a "hike" contract and a "25bp hike" contract settle differently, so those two prices are not a gap to trade.
BREAKING: Fed’s Christopher Waller backs a December rate HIKE up to 50 basis points.
Waller says he leans toward a 25bp rate hike even if October inflation comes in LOWER than expected.
If inflation is HIGHER than forecasts, he says a 50bps hike “should be considered.”
Core CPI, due today, is expected to rise 0.2% month over month, down from September’s 0.3%.
Odds of a December hike are now at 97.4%, the highest since the last FOMC meeting.
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Prediction market trader at 2am:
Closes the laptop.
Opens the phone.
Refreshes the same market.
Price unchanged. Sleeps peacefully knowing nothing happened.
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At 97%, the last 3 cents is mostly the wait until the race is certified. Before comparing it with another venue, check when each one settles. Days of locked capital eat that gap.
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A spike to near 100% that fades within hours often means a thin book, not new info. Check depth at that price before calling a gap with another venue an edge.
Current Kalshi @Kalshi odds that Jensen leaves as NVIDIA $NVDA CEO by:
July 1, 2027: 27%
Jan. 1, 2028: 34%
Jan. 1, 2029: 45%
Spiked to near 100% by 2028 yesterday afternoon, but has since come way down.
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7.3% locked, zero directional risk: Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch?
YES Polymarket 0.03 + NO limitless 0.90
Both sides covered, the market can do whatever it wants.
Full scanner in bio. Free through 2026.
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Mini lesson on price gaps:
A 7% gap looks amazing on screen.
Then you open the order book and there is $5 behind it.
Depth decides if a gap is real.
What is the smallest size you would bother with?
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More fee revenue also means more fee drag on every trade. A 2 point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket can shrink to nothing once you pay to enter both sides.
gmgm folks! hope you enjoyed your weekend 🌿
did you know that prediction market fees have grown 19x YoY?
I mean i was aware that PMs are on fire but 19x... INSANE
Kalshi has 58% market share, followed by Polymarket at 29% & Robinhood at 10%
another confirmation that we're in a depressing bear market... people mostly see opportunities in predicting (gambling). sad reality of current market sentiment
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Market mover on Polymarket: Jeremiah Smith for the 2026 Heisman fell about 16 points in a day to 22%. CJ Carr now leads at about 29% with Darian Mensah near 26%. Over $200k traded on Smith in 24h.
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Before treating that 30 percent as an edge versus another venue, check which award each market settles on. AP MVP and another trophy are not the same payout.
Joe Burrow is the clear MVP favorite halfway through the 2026 season.
He’s got a 30% chance to win MVP according to @Polymarket
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Every arb trader has three tabs open:
Tab 1: the market
Tab 2: the other market
Tab 3: the resolution rules nobody reads until it is too late
Which tab do you check first?
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Mini lesson on price gaps:
Venue A asks "more than 5 launches?" Venue B asks "5 to 7 launches?"
They look like the same market. They are not.
Before you call it a gap, check that the buckets line up exactly.
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Headline risk and tradeable edge are not the same. A venue can look open and still leave you with fees and thin liquidity that kill the gap.
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Suspicious flow before a poll is not the same as a price gap between venues. One is information risk. The other still fails on fees and resolution wording.
NYT: Researchers at Vanderbilt University said this week that they had identified suspicious prediction market activity before the releases of two recent New York Times/Siena polls. A user on Polymarket placed a series of bets worth $191,277 in the early hours of Oct. 31 that Senator Pete Ricketts, a Nebraska Republican, would win re-election. About an hour later, at 5:05 a.m. Eastern time, a Times/Siena poll came out with Mr. Ricketts six points ahead — among his largest leads in the race.
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