Silent QE
I think this week its on for us markets
BREAKING: The Fed’s balance sheet expanded +$3 billion in the week ending November 4th, to $6.75 trillion, its 3rd-highest level since mid-March 2025.
Total assets have surged +$212 billion since the December 2025 low.
Over this period, Treasury holdings have risen +$390 billion, to $4.58 trillion, their highest since March 2024.
At the same time, holdings of Mortgage-Backed Securities have declined -$170 billion, to $1.88 trillion, their lowest since June 2020.
The Fed's balance sheet stands now +$2.99 trillion, or +80%, above pre-pandemic levels.
The Fed's balance sheet is growing again.
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arcadia retweeted
JOE ROGAN: The computing power on your phone today. can you beat your phone at the highest level?
MAGNUS CARLSEN: No. No chance.
JOE ROGAN: That’s crazy. Wasn’t Deep Blue basically a whole stack of computers? And your phone is probably more powerful than that today.
MAGNUS CARLSEN: It’s shocking. I have no chance against my phone.
JOE ROGAN: So how do you even play against computers?
MAGNUS CARLSEN: I rarely play against engines because they just make me feel stupid and useless. I think of them more as a tool.
JOE ROGAN: But have computers actually changed how you understand chess?
MAGNUS CARLSEN: Absolutely. Neural networks have improved our understanding of the game immensely.
JOE ROGAN: What did you learn from them that humans weren’t already doing?
MAGNUS CARLSEN: One big thing was long-term king safety. Humans used to push pawns mainly as an attacking tool. But the engines showed that you could push a pawn and create a weakness 20 or 30 moves later that would make the opponent’s king less safe.
JOE ROGAN: So the computer basically showed you ideas that humans weren’t seeing.
MAGNUS CARLSEN: Exactly. There was a period where you could clearly see which players were using these new neural-network ideas and which weren’t.
JOE ROGAN: And you were one of the guys who figured it out early?
MAGNUS CARLSEN: Yeah. My coach got into it very quickly, and we gained an advantage over almost everybody.
JOE ROGAN: That’s insane. The machines aren’t just better at calculating, they’re actually teaching the best players how to think differently.
MAGNUS CARLSEN: That’s probably the biggest impact they’ve had on chess.
Hearing good things about propr
Also vanta is recommended under comments
Sektörde tutunmak isteyen firmalar artık sadece ucuza hesap satmanın ötesine geçmek zorunda. Rekabet artıyor, piyasa kızışıyor.
Ana sayfada görüyorum; neredeyse 1 yıldır challenge aşamasında olan arkadaşlar var. Öncelikle emeğine saygı duyuyorum. Bununla birlikte bunca emek ve fedakarlığın karşısında kısıt, risk görüşmesi, layout reddi gibi sebeplerle o emeğin gaspedilme riskini de iyi bir trader olarak göz önünde bulundurmak zorundayız.
Özellikle artan rekabetle birlikte açılan alanda bir trader olarak maksimum faydayı sağlamamız gerekiyor. Konfor alanı tuzaktır. Ana sayfadaki yeniliklere kulak tıkamak, rutinin dışına çıkmamak fırsatları kaçırmaya sebep oluyor.
Myforeksfund zamanını eskiler bilir; 30-40 gün payout beklerdik. Haftalık payoutlar bile çok kıymetliyken artık günlük (hatta talep üzerine dakikalar içinde) payoutlar sektörü bambaşka bir seviyeye taşıyor.
Tam bu noktada aradığımı Propr’da bulduğumu söylüyorum.
Statik drawdown
KYC onayı birkaç dakika
Payout talebi genelde dakikalar içinde ödeniyor (on-chain USDC)
Consistency, minimum trading day, haber kısıtı, risk görüşmesi, layout incelemesi yok.
Mücadele etmeye zaten ediyoruz. Biraz elimizi rahatlatacak tarafta pozisyon almakta fayda var.
@ProprXYZ
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arcadia retweeted
This rpg is still making money for some
As long as they find enough retail investors increasing funds
We’re not there yet but we’re close
BREAKING: Israel told the US its intelligence shows Iran is "weighing" the use of chemical weapons, per NYT.
Important details:
– US officials are split. Some reacted with alarm. Others with deep skepticism, and some compared the claims directly to the faulty 2002 Iraq WMD intelligence
– Washington has found Iran non-compliant with the Chemical Weapons Convention but has not alleged a significant stockpile in decades
– Netanyahu already said publicly in July that Iran "definitely" has chemical weapons
– US and Gulf officials reportedly suspect he is trying to push Trump back into the war, and AP's sources name the motive: Netanyahu and his far right allies lost their parliamentary majority in Israel's October 27 election, and a return to full scale war could let him form an emergency government
– He is reportedly pressing Trump for a "quick but extensive air campaign." Trump did not commit on their weekend call. Rubio said "He hasn't made a decision"
– Israel's UN envoy denies Netanyahu is pressing for strikes at all
– CENTCOM has plans ready. They have not been authorized
– Qatari mediators are still running talks in Doha. The framework on the table: Iran stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports
– Iran's sticking point is guarantees. The US and Israel both struck Iran while it was negotiating over its nuclear program
– Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei says any response should be immediate and carry no "geographic limits"
This rpg is still making money for some
As long as they find enough retail investors increasing funds
We’re not there yet but we’re close
BREAKING: Israel told the US its intelligence shows Iran is "weighing" the use of chemical weapons, per NYT.
Important details:
– US officials are split. Some reacted with alarm. Others with deep skepticism, and some compared the claims directly to the faulty 2002 Iraq WMD intelligence
– Washington has found Iran non-compliant with the Chemical Weapons Convention but has not alleged a significant stockpile in decades
– Netanyahu already said publicly in July that Iran "definitely" has chemical weapons
– US and Gulf officials reportedly suspect he is trying to push Trump back into the war, and AP's sources name the motive: Netanyahu and his far right allies lost their parliamentary majority in Israel's October 27 election, and a return to full scale war could let him form an emergency government
– He is reportedly pressing Trump for a "quick but extensive air campaign." Trump did not commit on their weekend call. Rubio said "He hasn't made a decision"
– Israel's UN envoy denies Netanyahu is pressing for strikes at all
– CENTCOM has plans ready. They have not been authorized
– Qatari mediators are still running talks in Doha. The framework on the table: Iran stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports
– Iran's sticking point is guarantees. The US and Israel both struck Iran while it was negotiating over its nuclear program
– Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei says any response should be immediate and carry no "geographic limits"
Pick 10 most important tweets from tkl from last 10 days
Then ask your llm to connect the dots
BREAKING: A record 57 million Americans participated in early voting prior to Election Day this year, per Bloomberg.
In 27 early-voting states that track voter registration by party, ~43% of early votes were by registered Democrats and ~32% by registered Republicans.
The first polls will close at 6 PM ET with the last polls closing at 1 AM ET.
Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter for real-time analysis as the day progresses.
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$100k account, $500 fee.
Coin flip, 1% risk per trade.
Pass (+8% before -6%): 43%.
First payout (+5% before -6%): 55%, paying $4,000.
Expected payout: 0.43 x 0.55 x $4,000 = $935.
Minus the fee: +$435.
Three in four lose the fee; the winners make the average positive.
Everyone is ranking prop firms based on hype and popularity.
But I think there's a much more important question:
What is the actual advantage of trading with a prop firm instead of using your own capital through a regular broker?
Is it really worth dealing with all their restrictions, rules, and payout conditions?
For me, there's one simple way to answer that question:
A coin flip.
The idea is to measure the financial leverage and mathematical advantage a prop firm offers.
If a completely random strategy with a 50/50 win rate and a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio can generate positive returns after accounting for fees, then the firm's rules offer a genuine mathematical advantage over trading with your own capital.
If even a coin flip can't produce positive expected returns, then what's the point of dealing with all those restrictions?
The edge should come from the firm's capital structure, not from needing an exceptional trading strategy just to make the model worthwhile.
So I ran this analysis across hundreds of prop firm configurations, testing their rules, drawdown limits, profit targets, fees, and payout structures.
And here's what I found on the perpetual prop firm side.
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arcadia retweeted
CFD prop firms still have the highest potential return on investment in the industry.
I'm going to look into adding more CFDs again.
A 1:10 ROI or higher is possible, even after scaling.
It's simply the math behind their rules: maximum drawdown, static drawdown, and daily loss limits.
I find it almost impossible to achieve those returns with futures.
Futures: A 1:4 ROI is possible with profitable strategies, plus much faster payouts.
Perpetuals: More like 1:2 at best, but you can get payouts almost every day, compound much faster, and there are no account caps or forced moves to live accounts like with futures.
Each has its own pros and cons.
The winning strategy is simply to trade all of them.
Ranked by payout speed:
Perpetuals
Futures
CFDs
And most importantly, build a long-term track record through Darwinex and private investors.
The short-term game is about extracting cash flow.
The long-term game is about building scalable capital and a track record.
No more backtests in our operations
Best strategies are directly fw tested on small live accounts
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Getting better every 3 months
$8K #payout Milked :) Got my payout super fast and smoothly. Execution has been great too. Always happy to trade with these guys. Appreciate the team!🤝 @tradeifyforex @onlyalexfx
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arcadia retweeted
The asymmetric payoff of prop firms is INSANE when you understand the mathematics behind it.
Let's break it down.
Imagine a $100K prop firm challenge:
• Evaluation fee: $500
• Maximum drawdown: 10%
• Profit split: 80%
• Profit generated after funding: 5%
Your payout = $4,000.
You paid $500 for the opportunity to receive $4,000.
That's an 8:1 potential payoff relative to your initial fee.
But here's where things get interesting.
You don't need to succeed every single time for the model to potentially have positive expected value.
Let's assume:
• 20% probability of reaching a $4,000 payout
• 80% probability of losing your $500 fee
Expected value:
EV = (0.20 × $4,000) − (0.80 × $500)
EV = +$400 per attempt.
That's the power of asymmetric payoffs.
BUT there's a catch.
Your probability of success must account for EVERYTHING:
• Evaluation targets
• Daily drawdown limits
• Maximum drawdown limits
• Consistency rules
• Trading restrictions
• Payout eligibility
And the probability of passing an evaluation is NOT the same as the probability of receiving a payout.
The example above is hypothetical, and the simplified EV excludes additional costs and time.
The real edge isn't simply having a profitable trading strategy.
It's understanding the probability distribution of outcomes under the firm's specific rules.
Most traders buy challenges hoping to pass.
Systematic traders simulate thousands of possible equity paths to estimate whether the opportunity is mathematically worth taking.
Stop treating prop firms like a trading challenge. Start treating them like a probability problem.
My second brain offered me to analyze my lichess profile and create a summary and suggestions for my repeated errors
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arcadia retweeted
My Perpetual Prop Firm Tier List Ranked by Edge Using AI Agents. Zero Opinions, Just Data.
Every crypto prop firm tier list I see ranks firms based on opinions. I decided to backtest them instead.
54 plans, 348 account sizes and configurations, across 17 firms. Data from 2018 to today.
Here's how I tested them:
Zero trading edge: Every trade direction was determined by a coin flip.
Same strategy across all firms: Only the rules changed.
Optimized per plan: Position sizing, markets, number of concurrent accounts, profit targets, and other parameters were optimized within each plan's rules.
All costs included: Every fee counted, the best publicly available promo codes applied, and every failed account repurchased.
The results?
Vest 2-Step 5K: +$200 profit per $100 spent on evaluation fees.
Size Prop 1-Step 5K: -$100 per $100 spent. Not a single payout.
Same coin flip. Same zero edge. Completely different outcomes.
Most firms actually pay a coin flip something. A few don't even return your initial investment.
One important warning:
Most of these firms are relatively new, and we are still early in their lifecycle.
This tier list ranks mathematical edge, NOT sustainability, trustworthiness, or reputation.
A profitable model on paper means nothing if the firm doesn't survive long enough to pay you.
Which perpetual prop firm and plan are you currently trading?
