Ashraf

In many ways AI progress feels incremental. Remember the GPT-2 to 3 jump or 3 to 4. It was mind-blowing even for pure consumers, who now can’t tell how GPT-5 is an upgrade. BUT there is one capability where progress is clear and measurable: Autonomous agents. In one year Replit Agent, for example, went from being able to do useful work for 2 minutes max to now up to 6 hours! It no longer feels like using software, and more like delegating work to a digital employee. Why is this a big deal? AI will start to transform the economy. Consumer chatbots are limited in terms of economic change—although I don’t think we’ve seen the end of sociological change from it—but the sky is the limit in terms of automating work. I bet by 2027, we’ll see the impact very clearly in macro-economic measures. You wouldn’t have to look for it to see it. However, I also think that the world will not look that much different, and many predictions will look absurd. Reports like “AI 2027” are works of fiction than actual attempt at informing the public. How we work will change, but we can adapt to that very quickly in the same way we adapted to Zoom and then people will look around and ask where is the scifi future we were promised. It’s important for policymakers to get sober and start thinking clearly about the implications for the economy, unemployment, and economic inequality without engaging in fantasy. The change is real, coming, and fairly predictable in terms of what it could look like.

BREAKING: An Israeli airstrike on a school-turned-shelter has killed at least 25 Palestinians, mostly women and children, Gaza's Health Ministry said. The school was hit three times while people slept, setting their belongings ablaze, they added. apnews.com/article/israel-pa…