Tech & macro investor. Startup veteran. Made the Kessel Run in 12 parsecs. My belief is shoot for the stars. And, tweets & retweets or Xs & reXs are not advice.

Joined November 2007
Arul Velan retweeted
People ask: “Are you dunking on neolabs?” Most neolabs will fail. That’s normal. But I believe more AI breakthroughs are coming. I’m skeptical of those following the same playbook as OpenAI and Anthropic. Raising $1B and spending 50% on GPUs doesn’t make you a $10B company. I’m rooting for the contrarians. Challenge scaling laws. Challenge transformers. Challenge how models learn. Challenge the next-token prediction paradigm. My bigger concern is that brilliant researchers don’t necessarily make great founders. In my experience, researchers often struggle to turn their research into great products / sustainable businesses.
Heard from a neolab friend: “Even if we fail to train the best model, we locked in GPU capacity early. H100/B200/B300 rental prices have since gone up 2–3x. We can just resell the compute and print money.” OK, so that’s the business model.
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Whenever I come across the market breadth argument, it reminds me of the old-school traders around 2015 who began realizing that you couldn’t simply use bond-equity correlations from the 1970s to identify current market regimes. Over time, market structure changes, relationships evolve, and historically reliable signals can become far less useful. I think we are seeing something similar with market breadth today. The massive growth in single-stock options has introduced another layer of reflexivity and price discovery into equity markets, driven by both end-user positioning and the dealers hedging that risk. Naturally, that means the relationship between individual stocks and the broader index today is meaningfully different from what it was even six years ago. The increasing crowding of dispersion trading has amplified this dynamic even further. One consequence is that, over the last few years, traditional long-only equity investors have often increased exposure as market breadth improves. Yet, contrary to what historically worked, those periods have frequently turned out to be precisely the wrong time to add exposure. The broader point is simple: market breadth is not a static signal. Its behavior has changed materially as the underlying microstructure of equity and options markets has evolved. If you continue relying on older breadth metrics without accounting for those structural changes, you risk applying yesterday’s framework to today’s market.
S&P 500 BREADTH FALLS TO DOT-COM ERA LOW Goldman Sachs says AI stocks are masking extreme weakness beneath the S&P 500, with market breadth falling to its lowest level since the dot-com bubble. The median S&P 500 stock now trades 16% below its 52-week high, while investor positioning has fallen sharply. Goldman sees potential for lagging stocks to catch up if macro uncertainty eases.
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Arul Velan retweeted
Burnout happens when you work too hard with not enough meaning. "He who has a why to live for can bear almost any how" — Nietzsche
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Arul Velan retweeted
We are going to spend years watching people optimize systems that no longer need to exist.
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Arul Velan retweeted
The internet is almost entirely unprepared for a future where everyone’s personal agents are running around executing tasks for them. There are going to be endless new challenges and opportunities at the infrastructure layer, for user experiences, new business models, and more.
Totally fair action from Resy tbh just asked Instinct for its activity log and holy hell lol "Total: roughly 200 API requests per hour, around the clock 1. 4 Charles availability sweep every 10 minutes, 24/7 since Friday morning - each run hit their API ~17-19 times (one per date in a 21-day window). ~100-115 calls/hour 2. Every morning at 9am drop time, a 2.5-minute burst polling every 0.4 seconds - 200-375 requests per drop 3. Occasional session-token refreshes"
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Risk management 101—every exposure should have a limit, even when you’re sure nothing could go wrong. After all, the Titanic sank and AAA mortgage bonds went to zero. I worry about the market’s (and the economy’s) unlimited appetite for exposure to the positive AI revenue story.
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Arul Velan retweeted
Next time you think of giving up, remember this photo of Elon in 2008.
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Arul Velan retweeted
The web will be terraformed for AI agents. We’re mid process right now.
In 2 years there will be more agents using Slack than people. That's not a prediction. It's a roadmap. Q1 FY27: • Slack MCP: 1 million users in the first 6 weeks • Slack AWUs: up 350% QoQ • Slack in nearly half of Salesforce's $1M+ wins this quarter (+80% YoY) Slackbot is now an MCP client. Create a NetSuite PO. Update a Jira project. Summarize a Salesforce case. No switching tools. The future of work isn't in a browser tab. Welcome to Agentic Slack. ⚡
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This is unusual: The S&P 500 has now seen 29 trading days where the index moved opposite to overall market breadth, the most through the first 93 trading sessions of any year on record. In other words, on many days when the S&P 500 closed higher, more stocks actually finished lower than higher, and vice versa when the index closed down. This is also the 2nd year on record with more than 20 such sessions through this point in the year. This comes as only 10 stocks have accounted for ~70% of the S&P 500’s 16% gain since the March 30th bottom. At this pace, the market will experience 79 sessions like this until the year ends, setting an all-time high. By comparison, the current full-year record is 57 trading days seen in 2024 and 2025. A handful of tech stocks are driving the entire market.
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BREAKING: The ratio of US leading to coincident economic indicators is now down to 0.84, matching the 2008 Financial Crisis low. This comes as the Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.6% MoM in March, posting its 7th monthly decline out of the last 8. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, weekly hours, and initial jobless claims. At the same time, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) measures current economic conditions in real time, such as nonfarm payrolls or personal income, excluding government social security or unemployment payments. This ratio is now on track for its 5th consecutive annual decline, the longest streak on record. In the past, such depressed levels have never occurred outside of a recession. The US economy and the stock market are moving in opposite directions.
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Arul Velan retweeted
Since the bottom in the S&P 500 in 3q 2002: SPX Total Return (blue): Up 1,156% SPX Total Return priced in gold (red): Down 17.5%
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Arul Velan retweeted
Social media rewards confident claims. Markets punish them. Lately, a lot of people have become confident overnight “experts” in oil futures But markets are nonlinear, complex, and probabilistic. People who actually trade (and survive) these markets tend to learn humility fast
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History will look back and say World War III started on February 28th, 2026.
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To be clear, WWIII started well before 2/28/26. History finds inflection points in major conflicts and uses those to mark the start.
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Michael Howell says the US liquidity cycle has peaked and expects 2026 to be a down year for US liquidity but a potential up year for Chinese liquidity. In his estimation these will combine to produce a stronger US dollar, flatter yield curves, and defensive and commodity outperformance.
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This is not receiving enough attention: Qatar is the world's 2nd-largest helium producer, supplying ~33% of global output, at 63 million cubic meters in 2025. When Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, the world's largest LNG export plant, shut down due to the Iran war, helium supply was cut, as helium is extracted as a byproduct of natural gas processing. As a result, the market is now losing ~5.2 million cubic meters of helium per month, with almost no spare capacity globally, as helium evaporates during storage and must reach end users within ~45 days. The disruption has already DOUBLED helium prices since the Iran war began. If disruptions last 60 to 90 days, prices could surge another +25% to +50%, potentially exceeding $2,000 per thousand cubic feet, over 4 times early 2026 levels. The Iran war is disrupting far more than oil and gas.
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This is a remarkable chart. Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions. Chart by @thierryborgeat
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Global debt reached a RECORD $348 trillion last year. $348 trillion.
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Wild market. We haven't seen anything like this since the dotcom bubble burst. Over the last 8 sessions, 115 stocks in the S&P 500 have decline 7% or more in a single day. The average drawdown when that happens is 34%. Right now we're 1.5% below the all-time high.
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What is catching my eye is that while sentiment is leaning bullish among retail investors and Wall Streeters, corporate insiders are selling at the highest level since 2000. The chart below shows the Vicker’s Insider Sell/Buy index. Typically, this index only produces meaningful signals at market lows when CEOs and the like buy their company stocks at depressed levels. They have all kinds of reasons to sell shares, including for compensation, so there is usually little signal there. That may well be the case today, but given the conversation about valuation and bubbles and loft earnings goals, the current 25:1 sell/buy ratio is something that gives me pause.
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