The morning Swedish police raided The Pirate Bay I was in a strategy meeting at Universal Music in Norway. Everyone celebrated because the pirate ship was sinking. "The adults had won" (lol) Three days later the site was back online. Different servers and different jurisdiction. I looked around the office at my colleagues still planning next quarter's CD releases and realized something. I was working for people who thought they'd won a war that hadn't even started yet.

Still thinking about this, and will for a long time.

Boris trusts the system that made him prime minister. Can't really blame him, it's been very good to him

The Fed didn't announce its rate decisions until 1994. Before that you had to work it out from what they did in the markets. In 2011 they started doing press conferences, streamed live. Bitcoin was two years old. Now they get clipped and debated over on X before they're even announcing anything. I think this type of authority only works best at a distance. The minute people start arguing with it, ending up in replies, the authoritative position starts wearing down.

One thing I'm trying to improve every day is my ability to make sense of my changing reality. When everything changes it's hard to shift PoV because it is in our nature to try to see the world as we feel it _should_ be.

# The 300-year Chaos Gap Before Gutenberg, the Catholic Church held a monopoly on God's word. You could not read the Bible yourself. A priest read it for you and told you what it meant. If you wanted access to God, you went through them. Then the printing press made the Bible available to anyone who could read, and the monopoly collapsed. What followed was the Reformation, the Enlightenment and the scientific revolution. Then came the Thirty Years' War, the end of feudalism and the rise of the nation state. It took roughly 200 to 300 years. Nobody living through it understood what was happening while it was happening. I think we are in the same kind of transition now, and it is a long one. People get anxious, or blackpilled, because they read it on a five-week clock. A transition like this runs on a three-century clock. I call the whole stretch the Chaos Gap. The old institutions are failing and the new ones are still arriving. It is an uncomfortable place to live. The church lasted through horses, swords and armies. What damaged it was people sharing information with each other. The same thing is happening to the modern priesthoods: central banks, legacy media, institutional education. The broadcast era, roughly 1950 to 2000, looks to me like the historical anomaly. Three TV channels decided what was "real" We are going back to tribal information flows at global scale, and this time the tribes are connected. **I watched the same thing happen to music.** The record business sold physical friction. When file sharing took the friction to zero, the distribution monopoly had no clue how to respond to that. First the industry ignored it and called it a toy. Then it fought, with lawsuits against the people distributing the files. Then it wrapped the protocol and found a way to monetize. That is how labels ended up owning a stake in Spotify. **Money follows the same three stages.** Banks called Bitcoin a toy, then a scam. Then BlackRock launched a Bitcoin ETF. That is the wrapper! IMO an "expert"'s knowledge is fitted to the environment it was built in. When the environment moves, the data, the models and the track record keep describing the old one. They are measuring a world that is no longer there. I think nobody alive today will see the end of it. Nobody who lived through the printing press did either. We're not even 20 years into this one. WELCOME TO THE CHAOS GAP.

There will no longer be a dominating narrative that will drive adoption. Freedom money will only make sense to a fringe minority, while other things that are cool about bitcoin that's not about freedom money will appeal to other small groups. That is how adoption will look like in the future. I think we're way past the time where one big wave of newcoiners will be minted in one cycle because of one narrative. We'll just be chipping away at it, slowly. I also think a lot of bitcoiners who have invested too much of their life in this space need to stop thinking that just because they are obsessed with bitcoin that the rest of the world needs to as obsessed as them.

The Fed's goal is "inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run." Bitcoin's is 21 million. Now read the Fed's sentence again. 2 percent is specific. "Over the longer run" takes it back. Nobody can tell you how long the longer run is. So the number can be missed for years and the sentence still holds. 21 million comes with no longer run. It's in the code, and anyone can check it on their own node. I think that's a big part of why the number stuck. It's the most specific promise in money.

Never knew I live to see the day the BIS put a meme in its new paper on why money needs central banks.