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With the help of LLMs, I have partially solved a long-troublesome issue with GBDTs!
1. Early stopping is a nice, clean way to automatically tune your GBDT
2. You by default leave some performance on the table with your hold-out set ...
Nathan Walker retweeted
Win probability is not a bankroll you need to manage with a calibrated fractional Kelly strategy.
You're not going to parlay that 0.10 of win probability into a long term optimal growth rate.
There's no benefit in avoiding ruin if there is an option with a higher *expected* WP.
the answer is - of course - Gary Payton II, who at 6'2" would be the all-time-NBA *leader* in this stat if he qualified
(needs more made 2FG)
basketball-reference.com/tea…
basketball-reference.com/lea…
Nathan Walker retweeted
Single game plus minus is confirmation bias distilled to the purest form possible
(this will make a great @jon_bois chart one day, on a different axis)
Nathan Walker retweeted
In a galaxy far, far away … 🛰️
Star Wars Funday Football is coming to Super Bowl LXI!
📺 Feb. 14 | Disney+, Disney Channel, Disney XD and the ESPN App
Star Wars Funday Football is coming to Super Bowl LXI!
the amount of elation I have right now that they are making a sequel to an old game nobody knows about that my kids and I bonded over, WOW
youtu.be/ZqcglWA1pDo
Nathan Walker retweeted
No, a Yandex cloud malfunction did not take down disinformation/troll bots. It's a dangerous misconception. This is not how it works, not even technically. After Ukrainian drones hit Yandex data centers, a viral chart showed Russian "bot traffic" collapsing. But those bots are mostly Yandex's own search crawlers, not the info-ops social media accounts. Troll farms hide behind proxies, hijacked devices and Western clouds. They're still operating. Hired influencers are also still around. The "bots went silent" story is misinformation. Believing it is plainly dangerous. It tells people the threat is gone while influence operations keep going. Ahead of elections that complacency is what they may count on.
Nathan Walker retweeted
Fork-and-Flush: help your agents escape Idea Basins!!
I love thinking of AutoResearch as Idea Descent: a metric of interest goes down, as a function of ideas/experiments, where the agents get pulled towards one idea or another. But we've seen very often an agent develop this weird tunnel vision, and honing in just one type of "idea", kinda like GD stuck in a local minimum.
We studied this and seems we can fix it with Fork-and-Flush, a super simple and kinda cute idea. Every so often, fork the agent into T copies in the same workspace but empty the context, let them run for a bit, and continue from the best one.
If you like the GD analogy, it's basically basin hopping en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basin-….
BTW we found a silly way of also plotting "idea basins": an LLM rewrites every experiment as a spec and answers a few thousand binary queries "is Experiment A closer to B or to C?". Then we embed this NXN matrix into 2D and indeed see in many cases that each run saturates into a small region and keeps polishing it.
We call these idea basins!
At equal compute Fork and Flush beats single runs and best-of-N on 12/13 long-horizon tasks (some 4+ days), and in my own research projects it's been working really well!
BTW we only use it at test time, but it could also be part of training or RL.
Led by @jackcai1206 @christos_ziakas during Jack's internships with us, along with @vkontonis @ShivamGarg91462 @Tea_Pearce Sid Sen and Akshay Krishnamurthy.
Nathan Walker retweeted
The 2027 Big Data Bowl is live #BigDataBowl
Nathan Walker retweeted
based on my data analysis, integer multiplication will be linear time by tomorrow!
We are publishing an update to OpenAI problem #109 Integer multiplication) with another substantial further tightening:
κ = 2⁻⁵⁹ (from OpenAI’s original κ = 2⁻¹⁸²)
Approximately 500 thousand fold improvement over our previous result and a 2¹²³ fold improvement over the original OAI result.
The latest redesigned the finite network to share intermediate computations and scratch space, then tightened the recursion and Gaussian estimates.
I don't feel like current harnesses are good at data science experiment workflows unless you have a very linear path (e.g. 'improve quality on a loop')
Nathan Walker retweeted
Data engineering role with the Titans remains open jobs.dayforcehcm.com/en-US/t…
I was 21 years old when I realized people didn't all refer to pulled pork as barbecue



























