Building Prediction Markets
Joined March 2020
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Prediction markets have a few unique qualities that make them valuable for tracking elections:
• They incentivize accuracy - people are rewarded primarily for being right (not eyeballs, power, etc)
• They're peer to peer - people set the odds, not a gatekeeper
• They're transparent - you can see the order book, the history, etc
• They move in real time - odds update as soon as new information comes in
That's why so many people and news outlets like CBS look to them during the midterms.
The media has an incentive to get attention.
Traders have an incentive to get it right.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
The clearest explanation I’ve seen of the difference between prediction markets and sportsbooks.
Amazing how much of the media still fails to understand the basic mechanics.
🤝 Paid partnership
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Every Tesla, every Starlink dish, every rocket on the pad. All of it needs tungsten. It’s in chips, jet engines, drones, missiles, and armor-piercing rounds.
It's in everything America is trying to build. China controls most of the world’s supply. Prices are up 500%+, including a 94% spike in six weeks this spring.
Oil has futures. Gold has futures. Copper has futures. Tungsten had nothing. So we built it.
Through @PillarHQ, an Ohio metals distributor locked in protection against tungsten prices on Kalshi. A real American business, hedged against a geopolitical supply shock, on a market that didn’t exist until now.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
🚨 Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ on @RuthlessPodcast explains how ordinary Americans are outperforming the experts.
MIT researchers pitted geopolitical experts against everyday people.
"Guess which ones did better at predicting? The random dudes."
The elites "don't do a better job than the wisdom of the crowds."
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Breaking:
NYSE told federal regulators it's putting up betting markets on the price of <new stocks ABC>. This creates new insider trading risks at all these companies.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
The latest @Kalshi forecasts put Abdul El-Sayed ahead in the Michigan Senate race even as his campaign faces heightened scrutiny. Will the latest controversies move the needle on Election Day? Democratic strategist @MikeNellis and conservative talk show host @MarkDavis weigh in.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
I haven't updated you guys in a while, but my Kalshi portfolio has officially crossed $200,000, starting from just a $1,000 deposit a few months ago.
That marks 20% of the way to our goal of $1M!!!
And TODAY, just 2 weeks before the midterms, I officially signed a lease to build what I'm calling the first prediction market situation room (The Riga Room)!
It's honestly surreal how quickly things have changed.
With my focus now shifting from sports recently back to my favorite category.... with the midterms just 14 days away, I'm going all in on getting this place built out before election night.
What should I add to The Riga Room??? and who wants to pull up and use the second seat?
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Ain’t no way Dillon Brooks has a NYC billboard dedicated to trolling LeBron 😭😭😭
This is unprecedented levels of trolling.
🤝 Paid partnership
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
I pray I never have haters as devout to the cause as Dillon Brooks is to LeBron James. This is in NYC today, when LeBron is making his Sixers debut at MSG. It is an ad for a fake device called the “Kingblocker,” used mute LeBron and all of his nicknames on TV and social media.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
you can also use this to block Kalshi ads
cc @allanmaman
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Thank you for having me @CBSLosAngeles to speak about prediction market hedging!
Many speculate (or "bet", as you call it) on prediction markets, just like they do on any derivatives market. But the exchange structure harnesses that speculation for price discovery and enables risk management for individuals and businesses, big or small.
Over time, prediction markets will let people manage exposure to most things outside of our control. We're in the early innings of that. Incredibly excited to be part of building that future.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
What if we made a commercial inside of a commercial?
What if we spent way too much time, energy, and R&D to build a product that literally mutes any mention of a very specific NBA player?
Sounds good.
23 available.
KingBlocker9000.com
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
JUST IN: Kalshi captures over 80% of monthly trading volume, leaving Polymarket with less than 20%.
🤝 Paid partnership
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.” xitter.cf/i/trending/21121889132…
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Two week from Election Day. Here's the Kalshi Midterm Hub outlook on the key U.S. Senate races:
🟦 Texas: DEM 62%
🟦 Maine: DEM 63%
🟦 Ohio: DEM 65%
🟦 Michigan: DEM 68%
🟦 Alaska: DEM 75%
🟥 Iowa: GOP 58%
🟥 Kansas: GOP 62%
🟥 Nebraska: GOP 74%
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Hit a hole-in-one. Free mattresses if the team wins. You went to an insurance company that specialized in calculating the odds. That was probably until 2006.
Then it moved to Las Vegas, where ticket brokers holding inventory for one team would bet against that team to hedge.
Then, by 2018, it moved to online sportsbooks.
Now it's happening on prediction markets.
An LA-based restaurant group put $60,000 on Kalshi before the NLCS that the Dodgers would lose to the Brewers.
Why? They calculated that a Dodgers World Series run would bring in an extra $120,000. No run, $0.
So they hedged. Guaranteed $60,000 either way.
The Dodgers lost. The $60,000 grossed $120,000.
Why an exchange and not a sportsbook?
At a sportsbook, your price is locked.
The only way out is a cash-out, and that number is set by the book's algorithm.
On an exchange, there's thousands of competing buyers on the other side. The price moves. It's a reflection of the market, and you can take it or leave it at any point.
The speculators who believed the Dodgers would win provided the liquidity the sportsbook never did.
Marketplaces like Kalshi are giving businesses the exchange that prize indemnity and sportsbooks never could.
Because the other side is real.
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
25 bars use Kalshi to hedge risk the local team loses playoffs — which would cost revenue.
A ski resort can hedge a warm winter. A beach hotel rainy weekends. And now bars against playoff results.
Millions of everyday risks that were previously uninsurable.
An LA hospitality group runs 25 bars, many of them right by Dodger Stadium. Every extra playoff game means packed bars. An early exit means lost revenue they were counting on.
So they hedged it. They put $60,000 on Kalshi on the Dodgers *not* making the World Series.
The Dodgers lost the NLCS to the Brewers. The position returned nearly 2x, helping cover the playoff business that *never* came.
A Columbia law professor told Fortune it works like “a form of bespoke insurance.”
Read the full story here: fortune.com/2026/10/19/predi…
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Dillon Brooks has a billboard in NYC trolling LeBron before he makes his 76ers debut tonight in MSG
🤝 Paid partnership
Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
As someone who is not a huge prediction market fan either way, I think Kalshi is just a better product.
They also did a much better job at winning the United States market.
Meanwhile, Polymarket focused on staying more decentralized, which, in some short term cases, helped, but long-term probably hurt them.
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