Food is set to become even more expensive: World fertilizer prices have surged +44% since the start of the Iran War, to the highest since 2022. This comes as ~33% of globally traded fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed. This includes 23% of global ammonia, 34% of urea, the world's most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, and nearly 20% of global phosphate supply. Furthermore, the Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex has increased ~9% since the Iran war. The index tracks the futures prices of key agricultural commodities, including wheat, corn, soybeans, sugar, coffee, and cotton. In the past, world fertilizer prices have acted as a leading indicator for agricultural output prices, as rising production costs eventually force farmers to reduce supply, pushing crop prices higher. A new wave of global food inflation is imminent.