@business editor for US interest rates. Monitoring Treasuries, futures, TIPS since 1997. [email protected]. Opinions mine & @compostmaven’s.
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#TreasuriesToday will return tomorrow as cash bond market observes US Veterans Day bank holiday. With reverence and gratitude. 🇺🇸
Confession: I said to my colleagues on our morning call (shortly after CPI) that a 5% coupon today wasn't in the cards.
Please welcome your new 10-year note, paying 5% a year until November 2036! A $42b single issue that will grow to $120b over the next two months. What will the coupon be on the NEXT new 10-year (the February 2037)?
25%6% or higher
37%5% to 5.875%
32%4% to 4.875%
5%Under 4%
115 votes • Final resultsI spoke too soon. 5% coupon has entered the chat.
The new 10Y note to be sold via $42b auction at 1pm (the Nov36) appears (WI yield 4.99%) headed for a coupon of 4.875% (highest since 2006) vs 4.625% for the current (the Aug36). That issue has been as cheap as 5.362% (Oct 7) and as rich (Aug 13) as 4.611%.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed after hawkish Waller comment lifted 2Y-5Y & sinking oil prices contain long-term tenors. $42b 10Y new-issue auction at 1pm (normally Weds but cash bonds observe Veterans Day) has WI yield near 4.90% vs 5.30% result last month (highest since 2000).
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#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with curve flatter as oil prices resume slide. $58b 3Y auction at 1pm (day earlier than normal because cash bonds observe Veterans Day on Weds) has WI yield near 4.61% vs 4.932% result last month, highest since 2006.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by ~3bp inside Thursday's rally ranges, which included lowest levels since early September, as tech shares stabilize. Ahead of October jobs report swaps price in about 18bp of Fed tightening for Dec. 9 rate decision. Ahead Monday, $58b 3Y auction.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed with curve flatter as oil rebounds from 2-month low. Buyback of up to $4b in 1M-2Y sector closes at 2pm. New-issue auctions ahead next week: $58b 3Y Monday, $42b 10Y Tues, $25b 30Y Thursday (skipping Weds as cash bonds observe Veterans Day).
#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower with oil prices by 2bp-4bp inside Tuesday's ranges. Treasury Dept at 8:30am sets next week's 3-, 10- & 30-year auction sizes & projects others thru January. Most common forecast is for change only to guidance for subsequent quarters. ⬇️
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-2bp inside Monday's ranges as WTI crude oil futures rebound after biggest drop since July (7.4%). Ahead Wednesday, Treasury sets next week's 3-, 10- & 30-year auction sizes & projects others thru January.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields mixed with curve flatter as oil prices slide. $213b coupon settlement (net paydown of $17.4b). Oct index return 2.4% (best month since Dec 2023), YTD -0.5%. Ahead Weds, Treasury sets next week's auction sizes & projects others thru Jan.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields down 2bp-4bp (despite oil rally) at lowest levels this month with Nasdaq 100 futures down 2.7%. 2Y & 5Y late Thursday fell below 50-day average levels for 1st time since August. Month-end index rebalancing at 4pm to extend duration by estimated 0.05 year.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields little changed, retaining most of Wednesday's post-FOMC curve-steepening move. $44b 7Y note auction at 1pm, last coupon sale of the Aug-Oct quarter with Nov-Jan TBA next week, has WI yield near 4.92%, between last two results.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 1bp-3bp with oil benchmarks up 1%-2%. For FOMC decision at 2pm, short-term rate contracts price in just 3bp of tightening but still almost fully price in a hike by year-end & 3 by end-2027. 7Y auction (last of Aug-Oct quarter) is ahead Thurs.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields lower with oil prices by 1bp-2bp inside Monday's ranges. $70b 5Y auction at 1pm (day earlier than normal to avoid conflict with FOMC meeting tomorrow) has WI yield near 4.81%, between last two results. Buyback of up to $6b in 20Y-30Y sector closes at 2pm.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields narrowly mixed with curve flatter. $69b 2Y auction at 1pm (week's cycle starts a day earlier than normal to avoid conflict with FOMC meeting Wednesday) has WI yield near 4.70%, between last two results. Size of Tuesday's 20Y-30Y buyback TBA at 11am.
#TreasuriesToday: Yields higher by 3bp-5bp inside Thursday's rally ranges (biggest since 8/1/25 on weak jobs report) as stocks & French bonds stabilize & oil rises. Auctions ahead next week (last of the Aug-Oct quarter): $69b 2Y Mon, $70b 5Y Tues, $44b 7Y Thurs (FOMC has Weds).