J. Edward retweeted
Before the midterm elections, I had several GPF subscribers asking if the Republicans lose control of the House or Senate, whether it will make much difference to the U.S.’s geopolitical actions globally.
My field is geopolitics, and this is in a way a political question. However, in my work I have encountered an oddity in the United States, a demonstrable, consistent set of cycles. One is socio-economic, with a crisis occurring every 50 years, with the last one taking place in the 1970s. I also found a consistent cycle of institutional crises every 80 years, with the last one climaxing about 80 years ago, in 1945.
I wrote a book on this, “The Next 100 Years,” forecasting that the 2020s would be the first time both cycles shifted at roughly the same time. It would therefore be a more disrupted cycle, with the disruption and restructuring of American society, economy and institutions creating massive tension. That was published in 2009. In a later book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” I forecast that the election of 2028 would signal the beginning of the end of both cycles and a radically new, increasingly stable and significantly different socio-economic and institutional system. Since then I have developed some thoughts on why the United States reinvents itself with such regularity, but I have not fully thought them out yet.
In my view politics is the outcome of these cycles and not the cause of them. I think we are nearing the end of the instability that emerged during the first part of the decade, and will stabilize toward the end of the decade, beginning after 2028. So I do not look at the political tension we are experiencing as the cause of the current crisis, but as an outcome of the cyclical crisis. The U.S. has spent this decade reinventing itself, a disruptive and at times unpleasant experience, but one that is nearing its end, that will not be fully in place until nearer the end of the decade.
As I have said, I am still working through the foundations of these cycles, but the political unrest is in my mind the product of the cycle and in that sense a clearing of the table in preparation for the beginning of a new and significantly different cycle. The political instability, along with the social, economic and institutional instability, is the effect, not the driver of this cyclical process.
J. Edward retweeted
ヨーロッパの没落は計画の失敗ではない。
それは計画である。
他の 主要な 民主主義国 は 次に 列に
もし社会が無制限に寛容であるならば、その寛容である能力は、最終的に不寛容な者たちによって奪われ、破壊されてしまう。
J. Edward retweeted
Replying to @joshlessard200 @AmericanAir
@AmericanAir this is not an isolated incident. I also booked a flight that was cancelled 10 days later. The agent who contacted me acknowledged AA’s failure to comply with the 72 hour timeline in the Conditions of Carriage but still refused to escalate the matter to a supervisor.
J. Edward retweeted
Replying to @joshlessard200 @AmericanAir
@thepointsguy @garyleff @OneMileataTime
have you guys heard of this happening to other customers or know anything that could help the situation?
i have still not received anything from american around the situation after almost 3 weeks now
J. Edward retweeted
Please retweet if you want to help Josh…this will help him get back to swiping 😉
This is insane.
American Airlines sold me 16 tickets, issued them, took my miles + money…
Then nearly 2 weeks later, they canceled ALL 16. becasue they said they made a mistake
I’d already spent $5,000+ planning these trips.
Has this happened to anyone else?
@AmericanAir @AACenter @Dotransport
please help if anyone knows what the heck is going on and PLEASE tag @AmericanAir
J. Edward retweeted
⚡️America is losing the small rituals that taught people how to live with other people.
Hosting friends. Playing cards. Dinner parties. Church. Finishing books.
Those look unrelated on the surface.
They share one underlying structure:
sustained attention, low stimulation, physical presence, repetition, and reciprocal obligation.
That is the missing variable.
Those activities trained people to tolerate boredom, disagreement, awkwardness, waiting, listening, hospitality, turn-taking, memory, patience, and the fact that other human beings do not arrive optimized for you.
They were tiny schools for civilization.
And they are disappearing together.
The home used to be a social node.
People entered it.
Meals stretched.
Children overheard adults talking.
Neighbors knew one another.
Friendships accumulated history through repetition.
Church placed people beside others they did not choose.
Cards forced attention into a shared rhythm.
Books trained the mind to stay with something longer than immediate reward.
These activities were building social endurance.
Now much of life is increasingly engineered around the opposite principle:
instant stimulation, personalization, convenience, asynchronous contact, algorithmic filtering, delivery, private entertainment, remote work, individual preference.
The friction disappeared.
But a lot of the friction was secretly carrying the civilization.
That is the part people miss.
Convenience removes the need to negotiate with reality and with one another.
You no longer need to invite someone over.
No need to tolerate the awkward hour before dinner gets good.
No need to sit beside the strange person at church.
No need to finish the chapter.
No need to play the hand you were dealt.
No need to endure much of anything.
And when enough of those repetitions disappear, people become less practiced at relationship itself.
Then loneliness rises.
Trust falls.
Friendships become thinner.
Marriage becomes harder.
Community weakens.
Politics becomes more abstract and hostile because people increasingly encounter opponents as avatars rather than neighbors.
The individual becomes more autonomous while becoming less socially embedded.
That is the contradiction.
The modern world optimized away dependence and accidentally optimized away belonging.
New newsletter: THE DEATH OF THE AMERICAN HOST
The share of Americans who say they host friends or family at their home at least monthly has declined by 70 percent in the last 50 years.
derekthompson.org/p/the-deat…
J. Edward retweeted
First off the nerds aren’t thinking creatively enough.
Second the primary objective is to fuck the rest of the world. Price at the pump is secondary.
There are clear objectives for anyone actually paying attention.
Escalate Iran. Regime change. Let them destroy whatever gulf infrastructure they can get their hands on.
Kill every single person in the IRGC. From the sky. Indiscriminately. Just bomb and bomb some more. Use AI and drones to target.
Europe panics. Asia panics. Beg for LNG exports.
Meanwhile Ukraine keeps hitting Russian energy infra. Oopsie.
Incredibly confusing times for the flag in bio crowd.
Hit Canada with 100% tariffs. Excludes albertan energy from said tariffs.
Emergency measures to ramp VZ supply. Takes time? Who cares, good enough to justify draining SPR to zero.
Mail some checks. Tax some energy companies. Mail some more checks.
Win midterms.
Decouple from China.
This isn’t rocket science folks.
J. Edward retweeted
Who would you rather have watch your children?
3%Lindsay Clancy
97%Adolf Hitler
226,672 votes • Final results J. Edward retweeted
I have wandered this country a long time.
I have seen things no history book will record.
A waitress at a 4 AM diner, sliding coffee to a trucker before he asks. She knew he needed it.
A father at the grocery store, counting coins in his palm, deciding which cereal his kids will eat this week.
A stranger in a parking lot, holding an umbrella over an elderly woman he does not know, until she reaches her car.
A nurse leaving the hospital at dawn, still in scrubs, praying quietly in her Toyota before driving home to be a mother.
A veteran at a small town parade, saluting a flag that most people no longer look at.
You call these things ordinary.
I call them samurai.
This country is full of quiet warriors. You do not carry swords. You carry shifts. Bills. Aging parents. Sick children. The weight of being unseen.
But you keep going.
That is honor. That is bushidō. And no one is writing you into the story.
So I will.
☕ If a story ever felt like it was about you, a coffee is welcome:
buymeacoffee.com/nobunaga
🌐 More tales from the road:
wandering-nobunaga.com/
The samurai code says honor is not loud. It is not televised. It is what you do when no one is watching, and no one thanks you.
So let me be the one who says it, on behalf of the country you carry:
Thank you.
For every early shift. Every second job. Every night you tucked in your children with nothing left in the tank. Every prayer you whispered in a parking lot.
I see you.
And I am writing it down, so someone remembers.
📚 120+ tales on Kindle, about the people who never get the spotlight:
amazon.com/stores/NOBUNAGA-N…
J. Edward retweeted
Replying to @Alkibiades_ @mtracey
CB - can’t read minds but would guess it wasn’t exactly hypergamy that set him off, but rather what he perceived to be the cultural/state inertia behind/promoting hypergamy.
You of course are right: hypergamy is part of the human condition.
Yet if the natural checks against it are eroded by the power of the state, one is left to grapple with a natural phenomenon that’s grown to an unnatural size.
J. Edward retweeted
When I was a kid, the Bronx was burning. My dad was a fireman who happened to be an Ivy League graduate.
He told me it wasn’t the crackheads torching the city, whatever the news said. It was fraud.
Let me explain how it worked…. John Doe buys a rundown apartment building for $100k. He pockets the redevelopment tax break, then sells it to Joe Doe for $250k. Joe pockets the tax break, then sells it to Jerry Doe for $500k. Rinse and repeat until the building is worth $5 million.
The tax breaks are real. The money is not.
Because the buyers are all family, the cash flows out of Swiss bank account 27852 and right back into 27852 after every sale. There’s a transaction cost, sure, but the tax breaks more than cover it.
Then comes the payoff: they insure the building for $5 million and burn it down.
The name for this was “Jewish Lightning.” The phrase stuck around not because the landlords were all Jewish, but because the stereotype hit a nerve in a city run by Jewish mayors from 1974 to 1989, the peak of the burning. Fair or not, the term stuck.
So why was none of this investigated? NGO funding, of course.
The NYPD union was powerful, and NYC detectives had sweeping investigative authority over almost everything. Except arson. Arson belonged to FDNY detectives. NGOs, routing money through union donations, stoked the rivalry between cops and firemen.
Long story short, arson investigators got no funding and zero cooperation from the NYPD.
No money for investigations means no arrests.
Eventually the Bronx ran out of buildings to burn, and Giuliani drove the final nail into arson fraud’s coffin.
But the lesson survived, and it’s the foundation of today’s fraud. The lesson was this: the actual value of the asset doesn’t matter.
👉What matters is the movement of money.
Destruction is still very profitable. When the Baltimore bridge collapsed, the cleanup and rebuild were estimated at $1.7 billion, with the bridge reopening in 2028. The cost has since ballooned to $5.2 billion, and the wreckage still isn’t fully cleared.
Money pours into demolition,, engineering, environmental review, project management, waste removal.
But if the work doesn’t actually get done, the real expenses stay low. The money moves; the bridge doesn’t.
And here’s the leap: you don’t have to destroy anything at all. You just have to not build it.
Democrats allocate money to a government body, which hands it to a project manager, who hires consultants, who hire subcontractors, who hire more subcontractors, who funnel it back to Democrats, who allocate more money.
The fewer the actual costs (labor, materials, equipment) the more of the flow you can capture.
And if a taxpayer complains, you hire a PR firm and a few consultants to explain why costs keep exploding while nothing gets built. The easiest thing to blame is red tape.
So why does red tape exist?
Because destroying valuable property, while profitable, is too obviously unethical.
Burning buildings gets you arrested, eventually. Not building gets you a ribbon-cutting and a press release.
Here’s the deeper trap. Because our most valuable assets are fixed (houses, cars, index funds) we think of money as static. You have what you have. It grows over time, but it doesn’t flow.
That’s exactly where the fraud lives: in the flow.
The light bulb moment was realizing you don’t need to destroy physical property. You only need to destroy productivity.
If labor and materials are never purchased while money pours in, the fraud works.
You don’t have to build or destroy anything of value, just productivity. You just announce a project and start writing checks while throwing up enough red tape to block any real spending on labor and materials.
This is basically why Congress handed @PeteButtigieg $1.2 trillion and our roads and bridges still suck five years later. They put up signs, traffic cones, and red tape, and little else.
But there are a few residual problems. 1/2
J. Edward retweeted
Part of the huge disconnect about the deal, which is a recurring problem with Trump and normal people, is that Trump doesn't see the deal the way we see the deal. It's provisional and contingent to him. You can see this reflected in almost everything he says about it.
The reason for this is that Trump is extremely high-agency, and extremely high-agency people don't worry about making mistakes or whatever else and just do things that seem plausibly good and savvy, which Trump is also very good at.
They do this because they know if things go wrong, they'll just do something else because they're extremely high-agency and extremely confident in their abilities.
A good fighter doesn't get in the ring concerned about if the guy is going to fight in a way he doesn't really expect. He gets in the ring confident in his ability to fight and to adapt to the conditions he's faced with. He "goes according to the situation."
Trump is a good fighter. He goes according to the situation. He doesn't really care much about what's on paper beyond how he can use it in the current play to get advantage and the next play to gain another advantage, even if that means dropping the deal (and bombs).
It's extremely hard to understand this when you prefer guidelines, contracts, certainty. It's even harder to abide it when you feel like you, yourself, are stuck in a dangerous low-agency position with what appears to be a mad king making fatal errors that impact you and yours.
I said something like this yesterday to someone, and the reply was, "you're giving Trump a lot of credit." Well, yeah. Trump's earned a lot of credit, frankly, and in many cases it was by being extremely high-agency Trump while the world bit its nails and melted down ("Rocket Man, everything is gonna be alright... Rocket Man...").
I think it's a good time to breathe and let the man's agency work a bit. If it goes as badly as people fear, there's plenty of time later to hang it around JD's neck and seize a different victory from the jaws of defeat.
J. Edward retweeted
Replying to @elonmusk
“What multiculturalism boils down to is that you can praise any culture in the world except Western culture. And you cannot blame any culture in the world except Western culture.”
— Thomas Sowell
J. Edward retweeted
This Austin Metcalf convo is really revealing how close we are getting to the point of no return. Let's have a real discussion about race. I'll address black people and leave reasonable white people to address their own (for now).
Black people:
What is your end goal here? I've been watching the back and forth on Austin Metcalf, and the responses from some of you serve nothing but ego.
Being as anti-white and uncharitable as you can to whites doesn't make you "pro-black."
Let's be real: Whites (not all, but small specific groups of them) have created the best societies, some of the most sought-after places in the world—this is not my opinion — just look at immigration patterns. People die to get to the White Western world. Civilization isn't random; it is connected to a set of values, behaviors, and disciplines. Black folks in closest proximity to whites, in either residence or direct influence, have some of the highest standards of living and earning potentials out of all the black people in the world.
Surely, stating these facts will be considered tap-dancing or some such nonsense, but we have to be real.
If you want to separate, be tactical. Learn what makes successful societies thrive and fail. Extract those positive principles and mindsets, then implement them into your community while retaining the ethnic flavor of your people. This is how you leverage human capital to your benefit (knowledge is power, remember). Asians did it. Successful Black people during the 30s and 40s had no problem doing it. Black commerce thrived in many urban centers at a time when we lacked widespread formal education and political leverage because they didn't close themselves off from learning from their "enemies."
Too many of you are falling into the trap of creating a fictional past and empty liberation philosophy to cover up for our current relative standing. That's a weak move. Do better.






























