Wrong again. Mining is a poor test of Jevons. The useful product getting cheaper, and people buying more of it, is what happens with inference. In mining the useful product, new coins per day, never increases. The volume that went up was extra tries at the same coins. Once the number of prizes is fixed, more tries have to make each try worth less. It does not tell you what happens when the extra volume is extra product customers are actually buying. You can’t raise coin output no matter how many ASICs you buy. You can only increase market share of the same coins. The share you gain is a share someone else loses. That is not Jevons. Framing it as revenue per box treats these as the same business. In mining, revenue per box is the whole business because the pie is fixed. A new machine takes its pay out of your coins. In inference a new chip does not take your chip’s tokens. The original box keeps selling the same output. The new chip can still push the price down, and the original box can earn less because of that price. That is a lower price, not a smaller share. Mining cuts your share even when the price of a coin never moves.

Kyle Shanahan says a 51% analytics recommendation won’t convince him to go for it because he gets one shot, not an hour at a blackjack table “I don’t want to hear about it if it’s 51% of the time we should go for it.” “As I always say, I’m not sitting here playing Blackjack for an hour with no one else at the table, and eventually I’ll get 51% of it. Like, I have this one try, and I have a feel for it. I’ve been doing it too long.” “But what I want to know from him, when it’s not a feel, when it, no, this is 98%. We don’t even need to talk about it. So we don’t need to talk about it. Tell me when it’s that, and I’ll just do it.”

Seasons ranked: 4. Spring -cold -girls hate you -no football 3. Winter -NFL Playoffs -rewatch True Detective -hit the gym like a grateful savage 2. Summer -you’re tan -work is avoidable -7 beers in the Sun with your friends realizing you almost forgot the point of life is to have fun with people who make you happy 1. Fall -football season -girls love you -51 degrees grilling burgers blasting Pink Skies by Zach Bryan taking a 3rd person moment to realize ‘wow life is a miracle I’m so lucky to be alive’ -Thanksgiving

Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America. This will be the first of many.

This weekend I invented something new, a new type of token using Uniswap v4 hooks that I call a Pair Token. A Pair Token is a new type of ERC-20. It is a fused, auto-compounding asset, a fusion of two tokens. For example, the stock tokens NVDA and SPCX fused into a single tokenized version of the two, with the ticker NVDASPCX, or ETH with NVDA, creating ETHNVDA. Each Pair Token represents a full-range Uniswap v4 liquidity pool. So why mint these tokens? These tokens are self-multiplying in terms of value, as at any moment anyone can call the compound function to compound the LP fees generated by the pair’s trading activity back into the asset. The token represents a new financial primitive, as it represents a proportional value and moves as an LP position NFT would, except that it is auto-compounding and, thanks to its v4 hook, allows for compounding and self-growth. Since it is an ERC-20, this token can be freely traded onchain, LPed, or even paired with a launchpad. A new type of token for a new type of exposure and strategy. Starting tonight, you’ll be able to mint or redeem Pair Tokens for any pair on Robinhood Chain via the StonkBrokers website. Minting and redeeming are free, and the compounding process on the tokens incurs a 10% fee on the LP fees generated, which is used for $STONKBROKER buybacks. I look forward to a new line of products and protocols on Robinhood Chain using this new financial primitive. Only on Robinhood Chain, powered by Uniswap. @Hookrfun

Airbnb is dead. Well it’s not dead but it’s going to be dying soon. The Bear case for Airbnb. I’ve been bullish on Airbnb as a company for many years. But my outlook on the business changed this week. Let me tell you why. In 2012 I purchased my first Airbnb property. Over the years that one property has turned into a portfolio of high-end Airbnb’s that generates almost $1M a month in rental income. Using ai agents for the first time this week has completely changed my outlook on the company. Airbnb is facing an existential threat that most of the market is completely missing. With Airbnb pushing its mandatory host-side commission to 15.5%, the middleman tax has never been higher. Enter AI agents. (Hark, Dot, Muse, Grok Bot, etc) Right now, booking a vacation rental requires navigating a siloed app and paying heavy platform tolls. But your AI agent won't care about Airbnb's brand wall. When you know the property you want to book and you ask it “what’s the cheapest way to book the property” it will query property management system APIs directly, find the exact same home, and execute a direct booking that saves everyone 15%. Airbnb's entire model relies on holding supply captive behind a closed interface. When AI agents can autonomously search, verify reviews, negotiate terms, and book direct with property operators, that walled garden turns into a leaking pipe. The middleman tax's days are numbered. I’m predicting that Airbnb’s growth rate will slow down significantly in the next 24 to 36 months. And within 5 years they will be seeing negative growth. The same can be said for most other online marketplaces that don’t have unique inventory that can only be booked directly on their platform and nowhere else.

Here's coin performance for the top ~300 coins as of the 10/10 high's to today. Look at the absolute bloodbath. Then look at the bright spots. I think the right conclusion is that good coins are emerging and separating from the crypto market broadly on the strength of their fundamentals. To me this screams, buy and hold good coins - now is finally the time

There it is