I bet on sports for a living and believe there is no point in being confident and having a small position. The money only goes one way
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Jaguars 33, Ravens 10.
The scoreboard says Trevor Lawrence carved up Baltimore. The play-by-play says Jacksonville's offense was two throws, and almost everything else went backward.
Here’s what the box score says, a thread:
The unit the score undersold: Baltimore's defense. Outside those two deep balls it held the No. 2 offense below its average, and lost Kyle Hamilton in the third quarter. The 23-point loss belongs to the offense.
33 things you might have missed in sports betting yesterday (Thursday, Nov 5)
TOP
1. Tulane (-12.5) blew a 15-point lead and lost 87-85 to Jackson State after calling a timeout it didn't have; Ruffin's free throw with 1 second left decided it
2. Jaguars 33, Ravens 10 (JAX -8.5 covered, over 40), and the under was alive at 33-3 until Justice Hill's 65-yard TD run with 7:08 left
-Fagnano in his first NFL start: 10/18, 60 yards, 2 INT
3. Penn State made 43 free throws, a program record, and still only beat Chattanooga 97-93 (CHAT +12.5 covered, over 159.5)
NFL
4. Ravens put Lamar (thumb) and Huntley (toe) on IR; Lamar is out at least four games
5. Ravens-Cardinals Brissett trade is agreed but not final
6. Kyler Murray (hamstring) is out Monday vs. Buffalo and Wentz starts
7. 49ers GM John Lynch says Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are unlikely Sunday vs. Las Vegas, meaning a thin receiver room for Sunday
CFB
8. Florida Atlantic hung 60 on 7-1 UTSA as a home dog, 60-29
-Veltkamp 4 TD passes, fifth straight game with 3+
9. James Madison beat Southern Miss 54-23 after a 16-14 half. They scored 31 straight points out of the break and 7-for-7 in the red zone
MLB
10. Silver Slugger finalists are out and the winners will be announced Nov 17
NBA
11. Warriors beat Heat 120-100 (GS -3.5 covered, under 237), sixth straight win
-Curry 29 after a 2-of-10 first half, and he passed Oscar Robertson for 17th all-time
12. Suns beat Magic 117-104 (PHX -1.5 covered, under 222.5)
-Booker 30, snapped a four-game skid
13. Orlando won the boards 48-33 and offensive boards 15-6, but 25 turnovers turned into 36 Phoenix points
14. Embiid's kick on Cade got upgraded to a flagrant 1 after the game
15. LeBron sent a cease-and-desist to a betting app using his likeness
CBB
16. South Alabama beat Jacksonville State 83-80 in 2OT after trailing by 10 with 90 seconds left in regulation (JVST +4.5 covered, over 139)
17. Maine won 74-72 at Sacred Heart as a 6.5-point dog
18. East Texas A&M won 72-71 at Rice as a 3.5-point dog
19. Duke beat Coastal Carolina 113-52 (DUKE -40.5 covered, over 150)
-Ngongba career-high 29
20. Arizona beat Cal Poly 104-84
-Krivas 30 in 23 minutes
21. Saint Louis center Robbie Avila won a permanent injunction and is eligible
22. Dog of the day: dogs went 21-21 ATS with eight outright winners (UNT, Maine, UMass Lowell, Albany, Chicago St, Lehigh, Jackson St, East Texas A&M), unders 22-20
PGA
23. Chris Kirk leads the World Wide Technology Championship with a bogey-free 63. Dunlap and Blair one back
NHL
24. Ducks won 5-4 at Edmonton (ANA +165, over 7)
-McDavid 1G 3A, 17-game point streak to open the season
25. Canadiens beat Utah 5-4 on Caufield's OT goal (MTL +110, over 6.5)
26. Bruins won 6-2 at Pittsburgh (BOS +112, over 6.5)
27. Blue Jackets beat Dallas 2-1 in a shootout (CBJ +113, under 6)
28. Devils beat Blues 5-4 on Bratt's OT breakaway after St. Louis erased a 4-1 hole (NJ -234, over 6)
29. Lightning beat Blackhawks 4-1 (TB -455, under 6.5), 8-0 at home
30. Predators won 3-2 in OT at Colorado (NSH +187, under 6.5)
-Stamkos' OT power-play goal was his 247th, passing Esposito for 5th all-time
31. Box score lie: Colorado outshot Nashville 32-25 and lost; Annunen stopped 30 of 32
32. Dog of the day: dogs won 5 of 11 outright (NSH, ANA, CBJ, BOS, MTL), overs 6-5
F1
33. 1980 world champion Alan Jones, Williams' first title winner, died at 80
And this is what killed our under 🤮 teapaw.org/nfl/status/21185527053…
CBB Recap from last night (Wed, Nov 4)
No ranked teams played.
California (ACC) won 84-70 as a 16.5-point favorite over Radford: failed to cover by 2.5, and 154 went under 157.5.
Biggest Division I misses against the spread
Saint Mary's beat North Dakota State 105-64 as a 13.5-point favorite, covering by 27.5. The 169 total went over 148 by 21.
High Point won only 63-49 as a 33.5-point favorite (missed the cover by 19.5); the 112 total went under by 36.5.
Queens (+7.5) won 96-95 at LMU. No underdog of 10+ won outright.
Tonight's Action
Marquee game: Wake Forest at #24 Vanderbilt, 5:00 PM, ESPN2. Vanderbilt -17.5, total 155
Biggest gap between T-Rank and the market is the same game: T-Rank has Vanderbilt -11.3 and a 150 total, a 6.2-point gap. Ratings are mostly preseason priors after 1 game, and no injury or spot evidence backs the gap.
Availability question: Illinois plays its first game without Jake Davis (out indefinitely after shoulder surgery; started 22 games last season, shot 40.6% from three) vs Penn, 7:30 PM, FS1. No replacement has been named. Cincinnati's J. Hastings is questionable (shoulder).
Last night in the NBA (14 games; favorites 7-7 against the spread, overs 7-7)
Four outright dog wins: Minnesota +7.5 at Houston (117-107; Houston 22 turnovers), Indiana +5.5, Brooklyn +4.5, Philadelphia +3.5.
Bad beat, Utah-New Orleans over 232: 208 after regulation, 228 in OT until Markkanen's meaningless 3 with 2 seconds left and 2 Murray free throws made it 233.
Box score lies
Miami 117-116 OT at the Clippers: LAC won effective field goal % 56.7 to 48.0 and lost on 20 turnovers vs 12. Miami (-5.5) did not cover.
Dallas also outshot San Antonio (45.1 vs 41.6) and lost 112-111 to a +14 free-throw-make gap and Wembanyama's 52/24/8.
Tonight's 2 games
Miami at Golden State, 9:00 PM CT, NBA TV: GSW -6.5, 235. Miami is on its 3rd game in 4 nights, the back end of a back-to-back after OT; Giannis and Adebayo played 40 minutes each. Golden State has had 2 days off.
Biggest question: Giannis's right wrist sprain. It was taped heavily postgame and he is expected on the report. Miami's listing should come with the early-afternoon official report.
Orlando at Phoenix, 8:00 PM CT: PHX -1.5, 222.5. Phoenix is on a back-to-back with 3 games in 4 nights; Booker took a hit to the face Wednesday. Orlando has had 2 days rest and is still without Banchero and Suggs.
Free Thursday Night NFL Pick: Ravens/Jags UNDER 39.5
Baltimore is going to be limited against a really good Jags defense. I don't think Jax gets too complicated knowing they have the edge in this one. I see a low-scoring, grind it out game tonight.
22 things to watch in sports tonight
(Thursday, Nov 5)
TOP
1. Jaguars at Ravens, 7:15 CT on Prime Video (JAX -10, 39.5), undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano's first career start with Lamar on IR and Huntley done for the year
-Fagnano's debut last week: 10-of-21, 91 yards, no TDs, one pick; Jacksonville is the No. 2 scoring defense
2. Public's side: 87% of moneyline bets and 90% of the handle are on Jacksonville -500 at DraftKings; on the spread it's 72% of bets, 67% of handle on JAX -10 (VSiN)
-Money trails the tickets, so no sharp side to call
3. Biggest move: SC State at Howard, 6:30 CT on ESPNU (SCSU -19.5, 45.5), opened -15 and 50.5 at Pinnacle
-4.5 points on the side and 5 on the total, all in the last day
NFL
4. Injury watch: Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten (foot/ankle) is questionable and hasn't practiced all week; inactives at 5:45 CT
-If he sits, Chris Rodriguez Jr. carries it; check the rushing props before you bet them
5. Henry hasn't reached 60 rushing yards in any game of Baltimore's three-game skid, and Jacksonville allows a league-low 3.4 yards per carry
-The Jags did lose run-stuffing DT DaVon Hamilton for the season (torn quad)
6. Jacksonville is 5-2 with three wins by 20+, most in the league; Baltimore's playoff odds fell from 70% to 20% in four weeks (Next Gen Stats)
CFB
7. UTSA at Florida Atlantic, 6:30 CT (UTSA -6.5, 72.5; total opened 75 at Circa), the highest football total tonight
8. James Madison at Southern Miss, 7:00 CT on ESPN2 (JMU -13.5, 58.5; total opened 56 at Pinnacle)
NBA
9. Heat at Warriors, 9:00 CT on NBA TV (GSW -6.5, 235), Miami on the second night of a back-to-back after last night's OT comeback in LA
-Warriors are without Butler, Porzingis, Moody and Santos; Curry is available after 34 against Phoenix
10. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg is averaging 21.5 points on 50% shooting through eight games with Butler and Porzingis out
11. Magic at Suns, 8:00 CT (PHX -1.5, 222.5), Orlando without Banchero (ankle), Suggs (knee) and Isaac (knee)
-Phoenix is 1-5 and still only laying 1.5 to a team missing its best player
CBB
12. Wake Forest at Vanderbilt, 5:00 CT (VANDY -17.5, 155), ACC at SEC with a big number
13. Chattanooga at Penn State, 5:00 CT (PSU -14.5, 160.5), the top total on the early board
14. Bellarmine at Indiana, 5:00 CT (IND -26.5, 153.5), the biggest spread on the early board
15. Georgia State at Charlotte, 6:00 CT (CLT -11.5, 147)
PGA
16. World Wide Technology Championship first round in Cabo, Golf Channel 2-5 CT; Ryan Gerard opened the week as DraftKings' favorite at +1450, Ben Griffin +1550
NHL
17. Hurricanes at Islanders, 6:00 CT on ESPN+ (CAR -175, 6), Carolina 12-3-2 and first in the Metro
-Kochetkov started 10-0, third goalie ever to win his first 10, then lost Tuesday; Bussi may get this one, and the -175 depends on who starts
18. Taylor Hall (upper body) could return for Carolina tonight after missing games since Oct. 13; Rod Brind'Amour said it's Hall's call
19. Blackhawks at Lightning, 6:00 CT (TB -410, 6.5), the biggest NHL favorite tonight
20. Canucks at Jets, 6:00 CT (WPG -212, 6.5); projected Vancouver starter Kevin Lankinen is 1-8-0 with an .804 save percentage
21. Stars at Blue Jackets, 6:00 CT (DAL -128, 5.5), the night's lowest total; Oettinger has three shutouts and a 1.90 GAA
22. Predators at Avalanche, 8:30 CT (COL -212, 6.5)
Which number is wrong: (A) Jaguars -10 on the road against a rookie's first start or (B) the 39.5 total with Henry facing the league's best run defense?
32 things you might have missed in sports yesterday
(Wednesday, Nov 4)
TOP
1. Wemby had 52 points and 24 boards, both career highs, plus 8 blocks, and the Spurs only beat the Mavs 112-111 (DAL +12.5 covered, under 226.5)
-First player in 30 seasons with 25-10-5 in one half; Irving missed the last shot
2. Bad beat of the day: UMass beat Ball State 31-30 in OT (BALL +2.5 covered, over 48.5)
-Regulation ended 24-24, 48 points, under 48.5 until overtime; Ball State then missed the OT extra point
-My play was Ball State +3 so I loved it
3. Ravens start undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano tonight with Lamar on IR and Huntley done for the year; Jaguars are 10-point road favorites
-Brissett trade is being finalized, expected to start Week 10
NFL
4. Eagles go from Tanner McKee to Joe Milton vs. the Giants; Philly scored about 15 a game in McKee's starts, all losses
5. Micah Parsons returned to Packers practice after his ACL tear, opening a 21-day window
6. Darnold (quad) is out Week 9, Drew Lock starts for Seattle
7. Deshaun Watson is in concussion protocol; Shedeur Sanders likely starts vs. the Saints if he can't go
8. Garrett Wilson is in concussion protocol before Jets-Chiefs
9. 49ers: Mike Evans (Achilles) and McCaffrey (hamstring) missed practice; Aiyuk filed for reinstatement and plans to report Friday
CFB
10. Toledo beat Sacramento State 20-17 (SAC +25.5 covered, under 52.5)
11. Central Michigan beat Eastern Michigan 35-7 at Ford Field (CMU -2.5 covered, under 44.5)
-CMU outgained EMU 418-177 and held the ball 40:56
12. Miami WR Malachi Toney (ankle surgery) is out vs. Notre Dame; Miami went from +5.5 to +7.5 at ND
NBA
13. Heat beat Clippers 117-116 in OT on a Klay corner three with one second left (LAC +5.5 covered, under 233.5)
-233 points with an OT and the over still lost by a half
14. Lakers beat Kings 116-103 (LAL -12.5 covered by a half point, under 234)
-Luka 40, his third straight 40-point game
15. Pacers beat Grizzlies 107-103 as road dogs (IND +5.5, under 227.5)
16. Wolves beat Rockets 117-107 without Edwards (MIN +7.5, over 220)
-Houston turned it over 22 times
-5 of 7 BoydsBets cappers were on Wolves +7.5 or better
17. 76ers beat Pistons 112-106 (PHI +3.5, under 219.5)
-Jaylen Brown 30 and the late block
18. Nets beat Hornets 114-104 (BKN +4.5, over 213)
19. Knicks beat Bulls 135-105 (NYK -11.5 covered, over 234)
-84-52 at half ties the franchise record; Brunson had 22 in the first quarter
20. Thunder beat Cavs 124-116 (OKC -3.5 covered, over 226.5); SGA 42
21. Blazers beat Suns 132-119 (POR -2.5 covered, over 227.5); Portland is 6-1, best start since 1999-2000
22. Celtics beat Bucks 109-102 (MIL +12.5 covered, under 222.5)
23. Box score lie: Milwaukee hit 19 threes to Boston's 16 and had the better eFG% (.524 to .495); Boston won it on the offensive glass (19-11) and at the line (25-19 in attempts)
24. Kon Knueppel made his season debut and left after 5:51 with left leg soreness; Hornets have lost five straight
25. Dog of the day: dogs went 7-7 ATS with four outright winners (PHI, BKN, IND, MIN), overs 7-7
CBB
26. Queens won at LMU 96-95 on a Jordan Watford free throw with two seconds left (QUEENS +5.5, over 161.5)
27. CSU Northridge lost 79-67 at Wichita State (CSUN +15.5 covered, under 162)
28. Dog of the day: dogs went 4-5 ATS with one outright winner (Queens), overs 7-3
NHL
29. Senators beat Sabres 2-1 at +112 on Amadio's goal at 16:51 of the third (under 6.5)
30. Kraken beat Flames 2-1 in OT on a Beniers goal (under 6.5)
31. Kings beat Sharks 7-2 (LA -170, over 6); Kempe had a hat trick in his return
32. Panthers beat Blackhawks 5-3 (FLA -242, over 6); Reinhart's empty-netter at 18:33 turned it into a two-goal win
Worse beat: (A) UMass-Ball State under 48.5 sitting at 48 when regulation ended or (B) Heat-Clippers landing on 233 against 233.5 after an overtime?
Wemby is breaking the NBA teapaw.org/nba/status/21182145816…
Trae Young had 18 in his first game against Atlanta since the January trade, and the Hawks rolled Washington 120-105 with 19 threes. ATL -2.5 covered easily, under 229.5
Nuggets won the third quarter 41-15 and beat Toronto 128-109. Jokic posted 32-11-10 and sat the final 12 minutes. Denver -4.5 was never in play, over 230.5 by 6.5