New revenue numbers from Anthropic last week caused investors to lower IPO expectations from $2T to 1.5T based on much slower growth. @CryptoHayes makes the case that Ai labs are simply bad businesses and a waste of money: "Anthropic in the leak of their S-1, for every $1 of revenue there's $2 of costs. That's a bad business." "Anthropic, OpenAi, and Spacex - not one of those companies makes money." "Now that pretty much everyone has recognized this, now we are trading on how big is the bailout going to be?"

This is all public information. - All investors are stuck in equity until a traditional equity event (e.g. IPO). - Tokens are held by the company for use by management one year after such an event. - Not a single token warrant has been given to any person on the planet. - There's no foundation or other such side channel. - The token simply goes to users that use the product. - As a result, the only people that can sell on the market are people that a) earned tokens through using the product or b) people that previously bought the token. I know you don't like me Evan and have some pre-existing narrative in your mind about me that's probably not going to change, but it's really that simple.

When I was dropping every penny I had into ETH in 2018, it's market cap was $22B pic related

Frontier lab debate is ~same as L1 debate, and why you don't have to squint too hard to see value capture could be basically nothing on a long enough time horizon if these labs don't develop the apps to monetize atop their blockspace/compute. You're seeing glimpses of that with personal agents (Muse, Dots, Grokbot) but there will be infinite businesses willing to step in and serve up alternatives on increasingly-better open source and/or more efficient models when and if those things become costly (or have costs at all!) to the end user. Having seen this outcome with blockchain it makes me want to fade/short the IPOs of these labs, but I'm reminded that it took something like 8 years for the market to wake up to the value capture problem and numbers went bananas in the interim, so I'll avoid bear positioning and instead look for the things that will leverage the commodity produced by these labs (intelligence) and drive actual revenues. Your blockchain anaologues here are HYPE, PUMP, Polymarket, Fomo, et al.

The Compute Markets pod. > why do we need compute markets > 2017 crypto markets = 2026 compute markets (?) > why finding GPUs takes so long > what’s really bottlenecking AI > what should Instinct do > GPU lending with @BrettHarrison + @andrawesbahou

Quick lesson in portfolio construction: * Cut Lit, no need for beta unless you think it actually can catch up to the leader * Cut cyph, just use perps or calls on zec if you want more juice out of this squeeze. keep your destiny in your own hands and avoid DATs for obvious reasons. Keep in mind if zec goes to shit, Cyph does too. You’re not protecting anything in your port with this “diversification” * same thing for Hype, cut Purr and leverage hype as needed * near I’m not a huge fan of personally but it’s fine ^ make these cuts and you have functionally the same exposure to the market but with 3 less names. That simplification is what makes the trades easier to manage (read: you should be able to get more out of the charts)

The non consensus take across ct is still that there's a small handful of coins that make money or are money, you can rotate all your money from the many bad overpriced coins into these good coins & literally make no other trades this cycle. All of Retail & TradFi is onboarding, be patient as the tide rises & ignore temporary troughs

Derive spent V2 building a specialized chain for sophisticated derivatives. V3 takes a different approach the execution environment becomes specialized, while Ethereum becomes the settlement and verification layer. that distinction matters as Derivatives need speed risk calculations, pricing and matching cannot wait for every individual state transition to be processed on L1. so V3 pushes the heavy execution into a zkVM, generates proofs of the resulting state, and lets Ethereum verify the outcome. the result is an interesting separation of responsibilities: - fast execution where the market needs it - cryptographic verification where trust matters - Ethereum settlement underneath it all that gives @DeriveXYZ a much stronger foundation for composability. if the state of a derivatives market can be verified against Ethereum, the market becomes easier to integrate with the rest of DeFi Wallets can interact with it, Vaults can build on it && Structured products can settle against it Agents can potentially use it as a financial execution layer. other applications don’t necessarily need to become their own derivatives venue they can build on the infrastructure underneath. that’s the part i personally think gets overlooked when people describe V3 as simply “moving Derive back to Ethereum.” the interesting shift is architectural -V2 specialized the chain -V3 specializes the execution Ethereum provides the settlement layer and ZK proofs connect the two:) if Derive can execute increasingly sophisticated financial logic while anchoring the resulting state to Ethereum, the addressable market becomes much larger than the users on derive.xyz the frontend becomes one distribution channel the protocol becomes the infrastructure that’s a much more interesting bet Derive Simplified

Man, I really want to get in on the DRV trade but options UI hurdle is just...not great. There are just too many variables for an unsophisticated trader. Even having traded options and understanding the basics (Theta, IV, etc) it still makes me want to nope-out. (and I did when trying to long PUMP this past week - opting for 1.3x perp) Surely someone is trying to innovate here?

The Tin Can maybe be the best gift I’ve ever given my children. They’re little WiFi telephones. Kids get their own phone number, but I control all access through the app. My little boys can call me, mommy, grandparents, each other, and 911. That’s it. (And those are the only numbers that can call them. Totally safe.) $8/mo per line. Easy peasy. Love it for a few reasons: • Random phone calls from your little ones at work is life giving • They can stay in touch with their grandparents, and surprise them with calls • They have a way to call 911. Like most houses, we’re cell phone only these days. Having this method for them to contact grandparents or 911 for an emergency is a comfort. No affiliation to them. Just love the product and wanted to share.