#nhlbruins and #swayman $67m get it done.

@FriedgeHNIC on today’s 32 Thoughts: #NHLBruins have offered Swayman: 4x$6.25 8x$6.5 8x$7.5 8x$8 Swayman originally wanted 8x$9.5 and believes he isn’t really looking to budge below high $8s. Doesn’t seem like Swayman would take 8x$8.

The Jeremy Swayman / Boston Bruins situation is heating up... not in a good way. Bruins President Cam Neely suggesting a $64m deal (8x8?) is on the table, yet Swayman camp saying they aren't aware of that and need time to decide how to handle this situation. It's been messy, to say the least. In the meantime, lets revisit how we viewed this contract situation coming into the offseason... Our final long term projection for Swayman was 5 years at about $6.4M AAV, or a 7.31% cap hit percentage at signing (contract graphic below). Probably seems low to you at this point? So, how did we get there? A couple handfuls of comps, but we had selected four to include in our contract projections doc (pinned post on our profile) to specifically highlight: Anaheim Ducks John Gibson, Winnipeg Jets Connor Hellebuyck, New York Rangers Igor Shesterkin, and Vancouver Canucks Thatcher Demko. While these are not all of the stats used for finding comps, we put together a handful of stats (seen in the graphic with tables) for both Swayman and these comps in their platform year (year before signing) as well as their platform + 1 year (two years before signing). Demko, the lower comp at 5 years / 6.13%, had stats that Swayman has clearly... cleared. Both overall usage and performance stats show Swayman to be the better goalie comparing P+1 and P. Gibson, the high comp at 8 years / 7.86%, had stats that are ultimately better across the board (usage and performance). So while these two represent more of the high-end and low-end possibilities, the other two comps are much more interesting. Hellebuyck's deal was 6 years / 7.76%. Hellebuyck had greater usage. He also pretty easily had the better platform year than Swayman from an individual performance perspective. That said, include the P+1 seasons of both and Swayman's averages, you could arguably paint Swayman as the better goalie. So, looking at Hellebuyck vs Swayman, there are ways you could argue either or as the better goalie at the end of their platform seasons. However, we tend to lean that Hellebuyck was better, considering he established himself as a clear number 1 goaltender (usage) at an elite performance level. Ok, Shesterkin. His deal was 4 years / 6.95%. Ultimately, Swayman is better when comparing P+1 & P seasons. They are CLOSE, but GSAA and overall consistency help give Swayman the bump. So Gibson/Demko established the high and low ends. Hellebuyck and Shesterkin seem to almost tighten up that range, if you will. Coincidentally, averaging the term and cap hit %'s for those two together (5 years, 7.355%) is very similar to what our final projection ended up being for Swayman (5 years, 7.31%), all comps included. Does both his usage and performance place him between Hellebuyck and Shesterkin? We think an argument is there for that. Some things important to mention: -Back in the beginning of September, @FriedgeHNIC mentioned on 32Thoughts: The Podcast that @ryanwhitney6 reported Bruins offer was 4x$6.2AAV. Based on our analysis, that is reasonable. Friedge also mentioned that he had heard that the ask from Swayman's camp was close to $10M AAV, potentially the McAvoy $9.5M AAV. Another detail mentioned was that there might've been an 8 year deal on the table from the Bruins that was in the 6M's. So potentially a big difference between the sides as of a month ago. -Now we supposedly live in a world where an 8 year x $8M AAV deal is on the table, depending on which side you ask... that would be a cap hit percentage of 9.09%. An improvement over where things were at in early September, per @FriedgeHNIC & @ryanwhitney6. That would blow past the Gibson deal. Now we aren't here saying that Swayman isn't capable of playing to that level. What we are saying is based on both recent usage AND performance, it would be a little bit of an outlier contract. Maybe we are shifting more towards a "pay the player for what they are going to be", instead of the "pay the player for what they've been" mindset? We've been seeing this more and more for young defensemen in recent years. In other words, burn the bridge deal. -Important to think ahead and note that while 8x8 would appear rich based on the comps, it is entirely possible that an $8M AAV becomes team friendly fast due to an increase in usage AND the rising cap. Many are used to the flat cap covid years. We should be seeing good sizable increases (hopefully in the $4M's) each year. -Usage matters. Looking at them individually as well as averaging the P+1 and P years together, Swayman has played half of his teams games (splitting time in tandem with Ullmark). Gibson and Hellebuyck played closer to 3/4's of their team's games (clear starting roles). -Swayman elected for arbitration last year. Arbitration is not a kind process. Player side arguing why the player is good enough to deserve more money, team side arguing that the player is not good enough to be making that money. It can be nasty. This is why most often, arbitration is avoided. It was not avoided and since that arbitration, there has been plenty of time to get a long term deal done. It is concerning it has gotten to this point. -Moving Ullmark without this deal done ultimately shifted some leverage away from the Bruins. -We have been saying all along both on X and on the @MaxTermPod that Swayman should follow the Hellebuyck path (and what is ultimately going to be the Shesterkin path). That is a shorter 4/5 year deal that lets you likely cash in on another, much larger term/AAV contract around ages 29-31. Coincidentally (or not), the comps we've found suggest that would be the right path. Ultimately, it seems that Swayman will be resetting the market in terms of goalies with similar usage and performance. Based on the rumors we've been hearing, it wouldn't be shocking to see him blow by our projection and continue past the comparables of Gibson and Hellebuyck. That said, will that happen with the Boston Bruins or a different team...? #NHL #NHLBruins #Swayman

Its crazy. 3 years ago most Bruins fans were PISSED Sweeney gave the crappy goalie from Buffalo 4x $5 million. Now their mad he only got a 1st, a bottom 6 center and a pricey veteran back up for the same guy in a trade, when goalie trades have always been a crap shoot.

#NHL GameScore Impact Card for Boston Bruins on 2024-04-30: #NHLBruins

Can’t believe Grz didn’t tell Coyle and Mcavoy to look behind them.

Prax lines: Heinen-Zacha-Pastrnak Marchand-Coyle-Geekie DeBrusk-Boqvist-Frederic Van Riemsdyk-Beecher-Lauko Maroon Lindholm-McAvoy Grzelcyk-Carlo Wotherspoon-Peeke Lohrei-Shattenkirk Swayman Ullmark

Johnny Beecher will sub back into the lineup as the #NHLBruins take the ice for their first home game of 2024 tonight against the Pens. Thursday's Pregame Rundown ⤵️ bit.ly/41TiWoH

I just think they're making incredibly bad decisions and/or falling asleep at the wheel in the defensive zone. It's correctable. They had a straight-up DOMINANT second half defensively against the Panthers just a week ago. This is food poisoning. Gotta poop and puke it all out.