Full time SPX 0DTE squiggle drawer. My AI copilot stops me out more than my broker.
0.618
Joined January 2018
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Got a notification about some crazy size way OTM and was like "excuse me, wtf is this?"
Well it turns out this is a massive downside tail hedge that was opened Monday for tomorrow's SPX expiry. They moved it in round lots:
Mon open: already long ~9,900 of the 7500 puts
Tue 10:10: rolled 2,500 from 7500 down to 7450
Wed 10:50: another 2,500, same roll
Wed 3:46: sold 5,000 of the 7690s
Thu 12:02-12:17: three put spreads, ~4,500 each.
Sold the 7700/7500
Bought the 7650/7450 & 7690/7590
Into today's close:
long ~12,000 of the 7500s & ~4,200 of the 7450s.
2,500. 2,500. 5,000. ~4,500 x3.
Thousands of retail traders don't move in identical chunks.
Warsh must have hired Powell's speech prep team today. He gave nothing on forward guidance and seemed polished during the presser.
9:30 0DTE 7740 straddle was ~$40 for FOMC. SPX ranged 40 pts.
7725 was the biggest gamma strike on the board from 10am to 3:30, 4-8x anything else.~$0.9B of gamma at 7725 at the open. After the 09:49 low, retail sold ~3,900 7725 puts to dealers between 09:50 and 10:05, more than half in a 10:00 iron fly that also sold the 7725 calls. Gamma grew to ~$3.4B by about 10:08.
Standard GEX theory says a node that big pins the close. Nah...
Retail was covering from ~1:45, dealer puts at 7725 went from ~4,900 to -194 by 3:58, and price ran back to 7744.
What I keep seeing: the big node holds price into the last hour, then it dies into MoC. This is where I like to trade it. Position at 3:45 for the MoC rippah or the darth maul.
I tested the largest-gamma-strike-as-the-close idea over 104 sessions. The big gamma strike at 3:45 missed the close by 10.5 pts on avg. Just using the 3:45 price missed by 7.3. Aka your favorite influencer pitching the king nodes is wrong. The GEX game is changing.
Looking forward to bringing more insights...
GEX services sell the idea that one bar chart calls the whole day. I kept wondering why those levels nailed the turn one day and got run over the next. Frustrated by the day to day of one thing works one day but not the next, I decided to take a quantitative approach. Using the traditional ideas of GEX, I tested the garbage peddled across X.
Across 357 SPX dips, standalone positive gamma floors bounced 48.2% of the time (dips with nothing underneath bounced 53.6%).
Spent the last 7 months testing everything I trade. Even threw chaos theory, Kelly sizing, and advanced physics and chemistry theory at it. Most of the complex math died just as fast as the GEX stuff. What's left is a live cockpit that combines dealer positioning, tape speed, and strike-by-strike flow.
I'll be posting what I've seen watching 0DTE change, my constant battle to find anything real in the noise on X, and some live reads along the way. Some might be great, others might be shit, but that's trading.
patho retweeted
Straits Taylor Rule:
i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*) + α(SOH−SOH*) + β(BEM−BEM*), α,β > 0
Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel :)
You can’t 25bp a chokepoint and r* isn’t neutral. It’s SOH risk premium, and We set it.
Stay unanchored !
patho retweeted
Every major SPY bottom since 2011 has been confirmed by one signal.
Not breadth. Not VIX. Not earnings.
The Copper/Gold ratio.
We backtested 7 drawdowns across 14 years. In 86% of cases, the CG ratio bottomed the same day as SPY or lagged by 10–29 days. It has never once led the equity bottom.
That makes it the cleanest confirmation signal we've found:
→ 2011 Debt Ceiling: CG confirmed +17 days later
→ 2016 China: CG confirmed same day
→ 2018 Fed: CG confirmed +10 days later
→ 2020 COVID: CG confirmed +29 days later
→ 2022 (Jun): CG confirmed +26 days later
→ 2022 (Oct): CG diverged — bottom was imminent anyway
→ 2025 April: CG confirmed +22 days later
Average forward return after confirmation:
+18.7% at 3 months | +24.9% at 6 months | 100% win rate
The April 2025 signal fired on April 30. Three months later, SPY is up 25%.
Copper prices global growth expectations. Gold prices fear. When the ratio stops falling, real money is rotating back to risk. $SPY $QQQ $VIX
patho retweeted
We initially thought GLP-1s like Ozempic, Tirzapeptide and Retatutride just reduced food cravings. Now, we know they work for alcohol, cocaine, gambling and other addictions too
But do you know what runs on exactly the same circuit?
Falling in love
GLP-1 receptors sit in the exact same brain regions that light up when you’re in love
The insane thing about them is that they don’t just suppress appetite. They suppress wanting in general, including romantic craving another person
Something like 60M+ people are now on anti-desire drugs and it happened in the blink of an eye
I predict in the coming years, we will see people on these drugs be less able to fall in love. We will also see them fall out of love, or be unable to feel it, in relationships that were previously great
If your girlfriend or boyfriend started taking GLP1s and your relationship started failing, there’s a good chance that’s why
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
GLP-1 agonists reduce alcohol craving/intake in multiple studies/meta-analyses, with limited/preclinical evidence for other addictions (e.g. cocaine). There is no scientific evidence they suppress romantic love, impair falling in love, or cause relationship failure.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40845737
thelancet.com/journals/eclin…
jamanetwork.com/journals/jamap…
