Market Analyst @StoneX_official covering forex, indices, gold and oil during the Asian session for @forexcom and @StoneXTrading. No DM's.
Brisbane, Queensland
Joined July 2010
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Australia's Q3 CPI lands tomorrow, and it could make or break expectations for another RBA hike in November.
CBA, NAB and ANZ forecast trimmed mean inflation of 1% q/q, with Westpac slightly lower at 0.9%.
Both exceed the RBA's estimated August baseline of 0.8%, reinforcing concerns that inflation is proving more persistent than anticipated.
With markets pricing around a 62% chance of a November hike, there's plenty of scope for repricing in either direction.
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
ECB Meeting Preview: EUR/USD Bears Face a Sentiment Test forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
I still like NZD/CAD for its longer-term, bullish inflection point potential.
RBNZ and BOC meetings this week. I still think RBNZ may have the hawkish edge - and if oil prices do pull back, it's another bullish clue for the cross.
NZD/CAD is not my go-to. But given it can move 300-400 pips and is sitting at range lows ahead of RBNZ and BOC meetings next week - it has caught my attention.
NZD/CAD Ponders Swing Low Ahead of BoC, RBNZ as Hike Bets Firm forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
Slightly more hawkish cash rate curve compared to Friday, following RBA Hunter's comments on Sunday
Oil & Forex Outlook: Brent’s $5 Gap Lower, USD/JPY Under Pressure youtu.be/CZyEjHCnOAA?si=XqmW…
EUR/USD is defiantly holding support despite surge of record short bets
US Dollar Bulls Hold Firm, but Euro Warns of Squeeze Risk | COT Report forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
60-minutes: Has the RBA done enough after 4 hikes?
RBA Hunter: "Unfortunately, not quite yet."
Another hawkish signal from the RBA, despite rising unemployment and weakening business sentiment.
All eyes now turn to Wednesday's Q3 CPI, which could tip the balance towards a fifth hike in November.
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Screams Sentiment Extreme Into Fed, CPI forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
Australian Dollar Holds Support Despite Record Bearish Bets youtu.be/Nijzp-cpwq0?si=LwAI…
Matt Simpson retweeted
SITUATION DETECTED: CloudFlare CEO Matthew Prince says he is aware of additional severe vulnerabilities in other pieces of critical software, and said “I think we’re going to have a couple years where every single week it’s going to feel like the sky is falling,” per Reuters.
Japan's core inflation (ex fresh food) hit estimates of 2.1% y/y, marking its first print above 2% this year.
The BOJ is expected to hold next week after hiking in September, but a weak yen and rising import costs add to inflation risks, keeping the door open for further tightening.
Marathon Fusion - a San Francisco-based startup, claims to have turned mercury into gold!
As cool as that is, gold's scarcity is hardly under threat just yet. A future fusion plant could theoretically produce ~2 tonnes annually, equivalent to just 0.05% of global annual gold mine production.
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
Rising energy costs continue to do its thing - with September's raw materials rising 27% y/y in Canada (crude component +55%), producer prices up 14.5% (petroleum 64%).
This reinforces the existing hawkish outlook rather than establishing a new policy shift - with expectations for a BOC hike next week ~80%.
Implied volatility is perking up for the yen as bulls relinquish control during risk-off trade. After several false starts, USD/JPY may finally be topping out again.
Japanese Yen Surges Across FX Majors as Risk Aversion Intensifies forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
Raw materials prices for Canada up in a few hours - should be a blast...
NZD/CAD is not my go-to. But given it can move 300-400 pips and is sitting at range lows ahead of RBNZ and BOC meetings next week - it has caught my attention.
NZD/CAD Ponders Swing Low Ahead of BoC, RBNZ as Hike Bets Firm forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
NZD/CAD is not my go-to. But given it can move 300-400 pips and is sitting at range lows ahead of RBNZ and BOC meetings next week - it has caught my attention.
NZD/CAD Ponders Swing Low Ahead of BoC, RBNZ as Hike Bets Firm forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
Market-implied odds of an RBA hike in November have roughly doubled from 25% to 50% over the past 24 hours, following hawkish comments from the Reserve Ban of Australia (RBA). Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that the inflation outlook was materially worse than previously forecast, citing elevated crude oil prices and echoing Governor Bullock's concerns that inflation expectations could become entrenched. While acknowledging weaker employment, Hauser stressed the difficult trade-off between controlling inflation and protecting the labour market.
Goldman Sachs revised its RBA forecast from a hold to a 25bp hike in November following Hauser's hawkish comments on Wednesday, bringing it into line with ANZ and UBS. The RBA next meet on November 3 and December 8 before taking a break ahead of their Feb 9 meeting.
AUD/USD Bears Denied a Big, Bearish Breakout via Hawkish RBA, Weak USD forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
That's quite a set of inflationary figures from the UK.
Let's get the party started.
Softer unemployment firmed bets for a November BOE hike ahead of today's CPI and PPI figures. Note the GBP/USD rally stalled just below its 200-day EMA, making it a pivotal level.
British Pound Rallies into CPI as BoE Hike Bets Firm - GBP/USD, GBP/AUD forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…
