Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks) header
Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks) profile picture

Using my statistics degree to gamble | Home of the NRFI/YRFI Algorithm (172-104 +33.06u) | 2026 NFL 31-18 +9.88u | 2026 World Cup 63-37 +18.74u

Joined January 2024
Photo by Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks)Photo by Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks)Photo by Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks)Photo by Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks)Photo by Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks)Photo by Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks)Photo by Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks)Photo by Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks)Photo by Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks)Photo by Carm’s Sports Betting Locks (@carmslocks)
THE BEST HEATER OF MY LIFE 🚀🚀🚀 - 7 straight winning days - Currently on a 20-4-1 run - 5 sweeps in the L9 days - 15-2 on 1st inning bets - 4-0 at plus-money And the best part is? Every play has been dropped FOR FREE 🫡 SHOW SOME MF LOVE WHAT A RUNNN 📈📈
🤖 Made with AI
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NFL Week 8 Player Prop #3 🏈 J. Warren o13.5 LONG RUSH (-125 Bet365) 📈 NFL Record: 32-19 +9.73 units *Up to 15.5 now, dropped Tuesday on Winible* - As a diehard Browns fan, I know my team and I saw firsthand what Jaylen Warren did to us on TNF a month or so ago. Warren is over this line in 6/7 games this season and 9/10 dating back to last year, ranking 2nd in YPC (5.5), 8th in EPA/rush and success %, and 6th in yards after contact amongst RB's with 50+ carries. Which is why the return of Rico Dowdle is not affecting his touches as much as he's logged 40+ snaps (62%+) in six straight games now. - The Browns are allowing a lot of big plays on the ground this year, allowing the 4th-highest YPC to RB's as six straight have covered this line against them. And of the 7 RB1's they've faced, they've allowed a total of 11 RUNS of 14+ yards including EIGHT to the three RB's they've faced on the road (Irving 38 & 14, Allen 17, 18, & 22, Pollard 36, 14, & 17). And they already saw Jaylen Warren who had a 24 yard run against them and is over this line in 6/9 career meetings despite just 9.4 carries per game and now he has a 15.5 rush attempts line. And Warren is over in 9/13 career games with 14+ carries, plus we're more likely to have a good game script as they're 3.5-point favorites, so gotta ride the hot hand even against my team.
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HOLY MORTAL LOCK 🔒 B. Young u8.5 LONG RUSH (-120) ✅ How about ZERO rush attempts for Young, barely even left the pocket 🔥 Jacobs 52 yards on 27 touches is disgusting, right read wrong result there. He was over in 37/37 career games with 20+ carries prior 🤮🤮 NFL Sunday props otw, starting right now! 🫡
NFL Week 8 TNF Player Prop #2 🏈 B. Young u8.5 LONG RUSH (-120 Hard Rock) NFL Record: 31-18 +9.88u 📈 - Bryce Young's scramble rate has been slashed exponentially as he's gotten more comfortable throwing in the pocket. Since 2024, his scramble rate has dropped from 8.2% to 6.1% to this year's incredibly low 2.4%. He's now under this line in 16/22 starts since last season including 10/12 on the road, one of which was at Green Bay. And he's under in 7/8 vs. defenses allowing the bottom-10 fewest yards per carry to QB's and the Packers are allowing the 8th lowest. - 6/7 QB's to face Green Bay are under this line (the miss was Jalon Daniels) including 5/6 with a HIGHER scramble rate than Young. Only 3 of the 30 QB runs against Green Bay have gone for 9+ and ALL were Jalon Daniels who has the HIGHEST scramble rate in the NFL. So I’ll happily take this line as he’s running less than ever and also runs 25% less on the road in his career.
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Carm’s Sports Betting Locks retweeted
Week 8 Thursday Night Football Plays 🏈 🧀 J. Jacobs o75.5 RUSH+REC YDS (-115) 🐆 B. Young u8.5 LONG RUSH (-120) NFL Record: 31-18 +9.88u 📈 You can find all 7 of my NFL week 8 plays already on my FREE Winible, link below👇 winible.com/carmslocks LET’S HAVE A NIGHT BABY 🍻
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10/29/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Pelicans (-7.5) vs. Kings Chance to Cover: 46.9% Just one B2B today and none tomorrow. But we will have two eligible games on Saturday, and SIX on Monday 👀 Looking forward to our first big slate with the new algo 🔜
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Week 8 Thursday Night Football Plays 🏈 🧀 J. Jacobs o75.5 RUSH+REC YDS (-115) 🐆 B. Young u8.5 LONG RUSH (-120) NFL Record: 31-18 +9.88u 📈 You can find all 7 of my NFL week 8 plays already on my FREE Winible, link below👇 winible.com/carmslocks LET’S HAVE A NIGHT BABY 🍻
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NFL Week 8 TNF Player Prop #2 🏈 B. Young u8.5 LONG RUSH (-120 Hard Rock) NFL Record: 31-18 +9.88u 📈 - Bryce Young's scramble rate has been slashed exponentially as he's gotten more comfortable throwing in the pocket. Since 2024, his scramble rate has dropped from 8.2% to 6.1% to this year's incredibly low 2.4%. He's now under this line in 16/22 starts since last season including 10/12 on the road, one of which was at Green Bay. And he's under in 7/8 vs. defenses allowing the bottom-10 fewest yards per carry to QB's and the Packers are allowing the 8th lowest. - 6/7 QB's to face Green Bay are under this line (the miss was Jalon Daniels) including 5/6 with a HIGHER scramble rate than Young. Only 3 of the 30 QB runs against Green Bay have gone for 9+ and ALL were Jalon Daniels who has the HIGHEST scramble rate in the NFL. So I’ll happily take this line as he’s running less than ever and also runs 25% less on the road in his career.
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NFL Week 8 TNF Player Prop #1 🏈 J. Jacobs o75.5 RUSH+REC YDS (-115 DK/CZR) NFL Record: 31-18 +9.88u 📈 *Dropped on my Winible yesterday morning, up to 78.5 now* - Josh Jacobs is back as Green Bay's RB1 and I couldn't love the upside on this pick any more. In his first game back, Jacobs had 16 touches on 35 snaps (52%) with 91 total yards against a great Lions RB defense. Now he gets a Panthers run defense that has been hot garbage for years and got absolutely MAULED last week by Tampa. Jacobs is over this line in 22/29 games as a Packer when playing at least 40% snaps, including 13/14 at home and 10/11 against bottom-10 RB defenses and the Panthers have allowed the 3rd-most total yards to RB's. - SEVEN different RB's have exceeded this line against Carolina in six games with the only team to not have an RB do so was Philly when they started a 4th-stringer. Plus Jacobs had 100 yards on 21 touches in this exact matchup against them last year on a similar snap count (38) to Sunday's (35). Jacobs is over this line in 4/4 early week games as a Packer and averages 100 total yards per game on Thursday nights in his career. Carolina gave up 250 YARDS to Tampa's RB's on Sunday and are on a short week I think this line is agregiously low for Jacobs given the high usage he's seeing already.
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10/28/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Pistons (-7.5) vs. Hornets Chance to Cover: 43.7% Team 2️⃣ Knicks (-7.5) @ Bulls Chance to Cover: 58.5% Team 3️⃣ Spurs (-12.5) @ Jazz Chance to Cover: 59.4% Team 4️⃣ Lakers (-4.5) @ Clippers Chance to Cover: 57.4% Nothing the algorithm likes, SO close to Spurs -12.5 after a blowout ln, but we’ll stay off. TNF props coming later today! 🤝
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Carm’s Sports Betting Locks retweeted
I posted SIX early NFL plays for week 8 yesterday, exclusively on my new Winible page 🤩 Those included our first Primetime doubleheader of the season for TNF tomorrow 👀 Who wants those today?? NFL Record: 31-18 +9.88u 📈 Get my picks early for FREE with the link below👇 winible.com/s/c9gut2kj
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I posted SIX early NFL plays for week 8 yesterday, exclusively on my new Winible page 🤩 Those included our first Primetime doubleheader of the season for TNF tomorrow 👀 Who wants those today?? NFL Record: 31-18 +9.88u 📈 Get my picks early for FREE with the link below👇 winible.com/s/c9gut2kj
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BANG, first NBA algo play cashed 💰 Nets +11.5 (+104) ✅ Easy plus-money cash, never even got close to trailing by double-digits. Expect a lot more of this to come, this is the first of many! 🤝
10/27/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Celtics (-11.5) vs. Nets Chance to Cover: 24.7% Play: Nets +11.5 (+104 Novig) 💰 Running it back with a road underdog. Celtics yet to submit injury report, hopefully we get another few guys to sit the B2B. Time to get on the board 🎯
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10/27/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Celtics (-11.5) vs. Nets Chance to Cover: 24.7% Play: Nets +11.5 (+104 Novig) 💰 Running it back with a road underdog. Celtics yet to submit injury report, hopefully we get another few guys to sit the B2B. Time to get on the board 🎯
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🤮🤮🤮 Beat the line by two points, deserved better as Phoenix misses their final shot to cover +9.5 🙄 Gotta stay the course, positive variance coming our way!
10/26/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Timberwolves (+3.5) @ Cavs Chance to Cover: 45.2% Team 2️⃣ Pacers (-4.5) @ Bucks Chance to Cover: 58.0% Team 3️⃣ Thunder (-9.5) vs. Suns Chance to Cover: 31.8% Play: Suns +9.5 (+102 Novig) 💰 Not a borderline play this time, the algorithm has this one is solidly in the Suns’ favor ☀️ Home favorites on a home B2B coming off a win are 5-18 ATS since November ‘25, including 9 STRAIGHT when the total is under 229.5 🤑 Let’s get on the board fellas 🫡
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Carm’s Sports Betting Locks retweeted
10/26/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Timberwolves (+3.5) @ Cavs Chance to Cover: 45.2% Team 2️⃣ Pacers (-4.5) @ Bucks Chance to Cover: 58.0% Team 3️⃣ Thunder (-9.5) vs. Suns Chance to Cover: 31.8% Play: Suns +9.5 (+102 Novig) 💰 Not a borderline play this time, the algorithm has this one is solidly in the Suns’ favor ☀️ Home favorites on a home B2B coming off a win are 5-18 ATS since November ‘25, including 9 STRAIGHT when the total is under 229.5 🤑 Let’s get on the board fellas 🫡
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Chet & Cason Wallace both ruled out on the B2B, this is what the algorithm does 🫡 Got two full points of line movement in our favor, hope y’all grabbed +9.5 already let’s cash in 💰💰
10/26/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Timberwolves (+3.5) @ Cavs Chance to Cover: 45.2% Team 2️⃣ Pacers (-4.5) @ Bucks Chance to Cover: 58.0% Team 3️⃣ Thunder (-9.5) vs. Suns Chance to Cover: 31.8% Play: Suns +9.5 (+102 Novig) 💰 Not a borderline play this time, the algorithm has this one is solidly in the Suns’ favor ☀️ Home favorites on a home B2B coming off a win are 5-18 ATS since November ‘25, including 9 STRAIGHT when the total is under 229.5 🤑 Let’s get on the board fellas 🫡
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10/26/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Timberwolves (+3.5) @ Cavs Chance to Cover: 45.2% Team 2️⃣ Pacers (-4.5) @ Bucks Chance to Cover: 58.0% Team 3️⃣ Thunder (-9.5) vs. Suns Chance to Cover: 31.8% Play: Suns +9.5 (+102 Novig) 💰 Not a borderline play this time, the algorithm has this one is solidly in the Suns’ favor ☀️ Home favorites on a home B2B coming off a win are 5-18 ATS since November ‘25, including 9 STRAIGHT when the total is under 229.5 🤑 Let’s get on the board fellas 🫡
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NFL DOMINATION. AGAIN. 🐐 Season Record: 31-18 📈 Profit: +9.88 units 💰 ROI: 17.2% 😮‍💨 Week 1: 7-3 +3.40u 📈 Week 2: 3-4 -1.55u 📉 Week 3: 4-2 +1.62u 📈 Week 4: 3-1 +1.65u 📈 Week 5: 4-3 +0.56u 📈 Week 6: 5-3 +1.35u 📈 Week 7: 5-2 +2.85u 📈 You can consider me a 2nd source of income, every Sunday you know you’re getting a paycheck 🤑 For consistent, transparent, winning picks, subscribe to me for FREE on Winible 👇 winible.com/carmslocks Let’s keep printing money y’all 💵
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5-1 NFL SUNDAY VAMOSSSS 🚀🚀 J. Brissett o1.5 RUSH ATT (-115) ✅ C. Ward u7.5 LONG RUSH (-115) ✅ J. Wright u0.5 REC (-115) ✅ C. Stroud o3.5 RUSH YDS (-115) ✅ M. Nabers o57.5 REC YDS (-115) ✅ B. Young u40.5 LONG COMP (-115) ❌ THE QB SNEAK GOAT HAS GOT US AGAINNNN 🐐 Drop a 💙 if you tailed, what a dayyyy All plays dropped early for FREE on Winible link in bio and below👇 winible.com/carmslocks
2026 NFL Week 7 Full Card 💰 1️⃣ C. Ward u7.5 LONG RUSH (-115) 2️⃣ B. Young u40.5 LONG COMP (-115) 3️⃣ J. Wright u0.5 REC (-115) 4️⃣ J. Brissett o1.5 RUSH ATT (-115) 🔐 C. Stroud o3.5 RUSH YDS (-115) 🔐 M. Nabers o57.5 REC YDS (-115) 📈 NFL Record: 26-17 +6.03 units Every single play was posted to my new Winible page two days before they posted here, and it’s FREE to join! Use the link below to sign-up👇 winible.com/carmslocks I’m feeling a minimum 4-2 Sunday LET’S GO 🚀🚀
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Carm’s Sports Betting Locks retweeted
10/25/26 NBA Back-to-Back Algorithm Team 1️⃣ Nets (+7.5) vs. Pacers Chance to Cover: 59.6% Play: Nets +7.5 (-106 Novig) 💰 Team 2️⃣ 76ers (-2.5) vs. Pistons Chance to Cover: 41.7% 59.6% rounds up to 60, let’s take our first play of the season 🤝 If you’re scared of backing a team on a B2B against a team that’s rested, here’s a stat for you: Teams as home underdogs on a B2B coming off a loss have covered 12 STRAIGHT TIMES, as well as 10 of the L11 as dogs of 10 or less dating back to last November 🤯 Let’s make it 13 straight 🍻
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