Markets, money and modern life illustrated in charts you won’t see anywhere else📊 Can you guess today’s mystery chart👇 https://teapaw.org/t.co/73auWr4Cqn
Joined February 2026
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A year ago this month, Oklo closed at $174. Today it closed at $27.
Nuclear and quantum were 2025's favorite stories. In 2026, with the S&P 500 up 13%, they're two of the worst places to have been.
NUCLEAR: -47% YTD
(Oklo, NuScale, Nano Nuclear, Centrus, Cameco)
→ The basket was +41% on Jan 28. It's lost more than 60% since.
→ NuScale is 89% off its high and still has no binding power deal.
→ $OKLO opened a fresh $1B at-the-market share program in September. Analysts see ~$6.5B of burn through 2030.
QUANTUM: -40% YTD
(IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, Quantum Computing Inc)
→ Peaked at +29% on Jun 2. Down 53% since.
→ Within three days in October, IonQ agreed to an all-stock deal worth up to $1.3B, then priced a $2B stock sale.
→ D-Wave still trades near 67x forward sales and now faces a class action.
Same knife for both: the 10-year yield hit 5.26% on Oct 14. Far-off profits are worth less when bonds pay 5%.
The case for a rebound
Nuclear
Big Tech keeps signing. On Oct 6, Google signed a 20-year deal for 890 MW of new nuclear capacity from Constellation.
Uranium's long-term contract price hit $96.50/lb in September, topping the 2007 peak.
Five test reactors went critical under DOE's pilot this year, Oklo's included. Meta signed on to prepay for power from Oklo's 1.2 GW Ohio campus.
Quantum
$IONQ grew Q2 sales 287% to $80.1M and raised its 2026 guide to $280-290M.
DARPA moved IonQ into the final stage of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative on Oct 7.
Washington is buying in: up to $100M CHIPS awards each for D-Wave and Rigetti (for government equity stakes), plus two quantum executive orders in June.
The honest risk
Nuclear: almost no revenue until reactors run. Oklo's first Ohio power is targeted for 2030 at the earliest.
Quantum: the cash comes from new shares. IonQ's two deals could lift its share count by close to half.
Next test: IonQ and NuScale both report Nov 5.
If you could only own one from here, is it the reactors or the qubits?
AWS grew 39%, its fastest in about five years, and the stock still fell. The number that did it: $77.3B of capex in a single quarter, up from $44.2B in Q1. Trailing free cash flow is now -$42.4B. $AMZN
The market needs to hear from @GavinSBaker at Atreides and Brad Gerstner @altcap (2 of the largest shareholders) to stop the bleeding on $CBRS regarding the short report from Culper
Before you trade Culper's $CBRS short, know the shop. Tecnoglass, Gorilla and LifeMD all sued it, and two AppLovin-related defamation suits are still pending. It says it may trade after publishing. Its misses: AAOI +198%, IREN +113%, AXSM +98%.
Monday it was ₩60.5T in Q2. Q3 just landed:
$SKHY quarterly operating profit
Q3 last year: ₩11.4T
Q3 now: ₩83.3T
An 80% margin on memory chips, plus ~₩100T (~$75B) going back to shareholders this year.
KOSPI jumped 6.6% to 6,012 and still sits about a third below its June record.
$GOOGL closed at $320.58 into tonight's earnings, 21.5% off its May high and just above $314.90, the low after July earnings. The 50-day sits only $0.66 over the 200-day. At a flat price they cross Thursday.
Does $315 hold, or does the death cross print?
Robinhood's CFO says he doesn't "over-index on any one month." October still headlined the outlook: $13B+ in deposits, $6B of it one Dell family gift. Q3 deposits slid to $15.7B from $21.7B and $HOOD fell 7.4% after hours. Is October the signal or the asterisk?
$CBRS is down 71% from its IPO-day high, but the selling is fading, not climaxing. The $106 double low printed on about 0.75x average volume, and the final unlock lands Nov 9. Are you willing to be early here, or waiting for the flush?
On Oct 12 at $151, we marked $107 as the price where $CBRS is worth just its $25.4B signed backlog. It bottomed at $106.13, twice. The backlog floor has held so far. The volume says the real test is still ahead.
teapaw.org/chartillect/status/210…
Nobody knows the bottom. But the balance sheet tells you where the floors are.
$185: IPO price, now in the rearview
$151: today, a new all-time low
$107: market cap = its $25.4B signed backlog
$33: just the cash
At $151 it trades at ~10x next year’s expected revenue.
$CBRS
The Brewers are 11-1 this postseason and one win from the title. 25 teams have led the World Series 3-0, and all 25 won it, 21 by sweep. The only 3-0 collapse in MLB history came in an ALCS: the 2004 Yankees.
Sweep tomorrow, or do the Rays steal one?
