Working on systems to try and stay out of my own way
Joined August 2021
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Chillus_Crypto retweeted
Arrogance acts as a significant barrier to simplicity because it thrives on complexity, ego-driven validation.
Some of the best discretionary systems are the simplest ones, you need to understand the environment in which they work best.
You don’t need to flip flop systems. From personal experience and those I speak to who’ve been doing this for decades…the biggest thing is self discipline and knowing when to and more importantly WHEN NOT TO use a system
You can make the most basic system work if you follow those rules.
Try working on your discipline and basic points mentioned if you’re still struggling
Chillus_Crypto retweeted
🎄 CHRISTMAS GIVEAWAY 🎄
I’m giving away 2× 1-month access to my private Discord for FREE.
To enter:
1️⃣ Follow me
2️⃣ Like and Repost this
3️⃣ Reply with your PNL card (any market, any timeframe)
Winners will be picked inside the FREE Discord on Friday 🎁
Discord link in bio 🔗
Chillus_Crypto retweeted
There’s honestly no better feeling than when trading finally starts to click.
It feels like it happens overnight. Your entries make sense. Your patience improves. Your confidence isn’t forced anymore.
But the truth is, that “overnight click” is anything but overnight.
It’s built on years of early mornings/late nights, blown accounts, missed moves, overtrading, journaling, backtesting, frustration, doubt, and showing up again anyway.
That moment when it clicks is just the result of thousands of small, unglamorous reps stacking up behind the scenes.
And when it finally happens, you realise something important… every loss, every setback, every day you questioned yourself was part of the process. Nothing was wasted.
Chillus_Crypto retweeted
One of the laws of market dynamics that people have a hard time adjusting to from observation:
"expect more of the same until proven otherwise"
if it looks like a range and trades like a range, it is a range until there is evidence to prove otherwise.
same goes for trends.
for the "proven otherwise" aspect - some suggestions:
> Understanding of positioning (where is positioning getting pilled on and what type of positioning is it - weak perp hands trying to preemptively pile on to a breakout trade etc.)
> Perp & spot behavior (how much work is being done and are participants getting rewarded for the amount of work being done via price)
> Value development (volume and price) - can use market profile, volume weight average price with standard dev. bands, volume profile
> Using a simple framework for structural shifts e.g. moving averages, vwaps, emas etc. whatever floats your boat coupled with observing momentum into and out of these areas.
Paired with understanding of context of the environment can be of significant help.
1. "where is the market trying to go?"
2. "how well of a job is it doing in trying to go in that direction?"
Chillus_Crypto retweeted
If I could sit my younger trading self-down for 10 minutes, this is exactly what I’d tell him.
No fluff. No clichés.
Just the lessons that would've saved me from blowing accounts, overtrading & coping on CT.
🧵: 7 Trading tips I wish someone told me when I started trading.👇
Chillus_Crypto retweeted
I sent this to someone today who was struggling a bit with the market conditions. I am posting it here because it is all too true and I think you should read it if you struggling.
Then read it again. 👇
Wanting it so bad can either be very helpful in your journey or very harmful. Sometimes we want it so bad that we cant leave it alone. We cant take our fingers off the keys. We over trade and over work ourselves when in reality the best in the game take fewer trades that are higher quality.
I know that is much easier said than done, but it is absolutely true. If you arent journaling extensively then start now. Find what setups win for you and mold your A+ setup around it.
If it doesnt meet the criteria of your A+ setup then absolutely do not take it. Even if it limits you to 1 or 2 trades a week.
Chillus_Crypto retweeted
Here is what you all need to understand.
I'm going to explain this in detail for you so you know where we are, and why this is nothing like 2021.
Bitcoin, and the rest of the market, are liquidity vessels.
Their cycles are NOT dependant on an arbitrary 4 year number.
But they ARE dependant on the wider liquidity and business cycle, which is totally different this time.
And you can see here on this chart that BTC mirrors exactly the:
- COPPER/GOLD chart
- ISM/PMI chart
So what are these?
The COPPER/GOLD chart is one of the best indicators to understand that state of the economy.
COPPER is one of the most widely used metals on Earth for almost all form of building and development.
When COPPER is pushing higher, it is because the economy is expanding and the demand for it is high.
GOLD, is used as a hedge and safety trade, and when that is expanding, it is because the global market is shaky and people are keen for too much risk.
What this means overall is that when COPPER/GOLD goes up, COPPER is stronger because the demand for that is higher(expansion globally) and GOLD is trending lower, because everyone is more risk on.
You can see very clearly that when COPPER/GOLD goes up, BTC moves at the same time and always has.
At the bottom of the chart we have the ISM/PMI, which is the index used to understand whether the economy is expanding or contracting.
Historically, when this is below 50, like it is now, the economy is contracting.
When this happens, as you can see, COPPER/GOLD goes down and so does BTC.
Literally in unison.
And right now, we are in the longest contraction of PMI ever recorded.
When PMI ticks over 50, we enter expansion and COPPER/GOLD also goes up... and yes, so does BTC.
So what does this tell us?
Well, look at 2021.
COPPER/GOLD had been expanding for months and was topping out, just like PMI.
In 2021 we were at the peak of the business cycle and only massive contraction lay ahead.
Right now, COPPER/GOLD is bottoming and PMI is grinding up towards 50+.
All at the same time as we are about to come out of the longest liquidity contraction ever, and into easing.
Ask yourself...
Do you think this is all a coincidence?
That this has been the longest contraction cycle, and the longest COPPER/GOLD and PMI contraction also?
No, it is not.
And that is because ALL of this is linked.
The expansion phase of this liquidity/business cycle has not even properly got underway yet, and you can see this with your own two eyes looking at this chart.
The fact here is that BTC has been pushing higher in an overall contracting global environment, and as i keep saying, the only thing that has been pushing it higher has been institutions and government adoption.
The reason it is weak, totally different to any other bull market, and cannot sustain a true pump, whilst the altcoin market has been down only is because of what I have just told you here.
Todays conditions could not be more different to 2021...
I have made this crystal clear for you in this and many other of my posts.
If you think you are gonna get a 2022 bear market from here and you can sell or your bags now, add a massive 50x short, ride it easy, then chuck your profits into BTC at 75% down...
You're fucked.
Massive expansion is what lies ahead.
Not a deep bear market.
Chillus_Crypto retweeted
$BTC From the 2023 bottom to the 2025 peaks - I anchored AVWAP to every swing low. These aren’t just lines… they’re where real big money entered.
• AVWAP from each swing low = dynamic support of the bull market
• Trend intact unless these levels break
• History shows: when BTC taps these lines… it doesn’t stay quiet for long, you can see how perfect were retests and bounces from those lines starting from 16K bottom on BTC.
AVWAP from 75K bottom has been lost, it acted as support line for a while before giving up.
Now I’m watching the 96K – 94K zone for a bounce, while the next key demand sits closer to 80K.
Chillus_Crypto retweeted
The idea is always rather simple (assuming you have been following me for a while and know most of the logic I use to understand markets by now).
But the emotions add complexity.
It's been the main reason why I share what I share, taking longs and shorts at seemingly the worst times, until, they suddenly look less bad, and then suddenly, look okay/good.
When you hesitate after a long awaited plan, that's your emotional brain conversating, not your logical brain. And that is also why we plan, to be ready but also to also recognize our own emotions suddenly coming in.
"Be careful"
"I will wait for 70k/80k"
"I will not long, I will just wait for the next short area"
"I will only long when it reclaims 102k (then ends up never longing)" - can someone clarify what reclaim even means, it's too discretionary to act upon.
The above are also emotional statements.
They not only inhibit you from trading, but also from looking for a specific trade (such as this recent long double-up).
➡️Make a plan based on sound analysis and logic (and yes, light alterations along the way are fine)
➡️Envision how you it will feel and look if that plan plays out, to avoid inaction (comes with experience)
➡️And then act (this for many goes out the window, because price always looks unfavorable for the trade whenever the best entries come).
This is my detailed philosophy of operation.
Chillus_Crypto retweeted
Total2- "Bullish bottoming"- March 25💫
BTC at 76k💫up 65%
ETH was 2k - 130% Up
SOL was 140- 85% Up
Total2 - was 1.08 - Up by 60%
Bottom line in between Bitcoin at 108.1 which was 🗝️total2 never turned Bearish
I have to do this % things so you understand full picture on alts how they have outperformed/will keep outperforming Bitcoin
Chillus_Crypto retweeted
If I had to trade two swing style set ups...
Based upon the Daily and above
1. Range extremities - absorption / exhaustion - forced buying / selling being absorbed by passive players.
2. Momentum based breakouts after a multiday / multi week volatility compression (vcp) - (aka clearance thrusts which I've covered in details - thanks to @paracurve)
If I had to ?... I actually do.
Chillus_Crypto retweeted
$BTC - (In partnership with @BingXOfficial)
4H - Full chart update, all notes and level clearly explained and mapped on the chart.
Long idea shared a few days back remains valid.
Just check the latest Market Weather Bulletin on YT for the precise setup.
1. Clean range formation. Swing high, swing low, sweep of the high and back down at range low
2. Standard range deviation, manipulation below and back above range low. After a deviation at the lows, we expect a visit to range high, invalidation loss of range low.
3. This lower range becomes relevant since is the last consolidation before the breakout. Price should not deviate back inside it, otherwise it would form a failed auction.
4. Price reached mid range, PoC and volume node. After a sweep of the high, on a 3 drive move along with a bearish deviation, we got a first relevant rejection, pretty normal being this level a key resistance.
5. After the bearish deviation, RSI 4H loosing 50 level, first time since the breakout form the lower range.
6. Inefficiency just below here, not much support!
7. This remains key support level, and last line of defense for bulls. We have lower range PoC, FIBs and volume node here, along with range of the macro range.
If you enjoyed this content, please consider engaging with this thread.
Any comment, like, or repost would be highly appreciated.
Also, if you want to support my content and enjoy a 20% discount on trading fees, make sure to trade with me on @BingXOfficial
- bingx.com/partner/CryptoPope…
