clockindubz

🚨 DISTURBING RUMOR FROM THE DARK WEB Before anything else, let me be absolutely clear: This is NOT a confirmed report. There is no sufficient credible evidence to support these claims, and I am NOT presenting any of this as fact. However, after everything that happened yesterday, it’s hard not to feel concerned when scenarios like this start circulating. I received information from an unverified source, allegedly originating from the dark web, describing a potential global cyber event supposedly scheduled for November 17. Here’s what the message claims: ↓ BEGIN UNVERIFIED QUOTE ↓ “Everything connected to the internet will be hacked. A so-called ‘COVID 2.0’ will begin. Major banks will be compromised, and financial records will be completely erased. Thousands of bank accounts will suddenly display a balance of $0, with no way to recover or verify their original balances. This will trigger a global internet lockdown. The entire world’s internet infrastructure will allegedly be shut down for three months. During that period, an extremely advanced artificial intelligence system will supposedly be used to identify and fix vulnerabilities and security flaws across the network. The consequences will be widespread panic, confusion, and unprecedented global disruption. People are being urged to stockpile food, water, gold, silver, weapons, ammunition, and cash as quickly as possible. The alleged worldwide shutdown will begin on November 17.” ↑ END UNVERIFIED QUOTE ↑ ⚠️ My perspective: I want to emphasize once again that there is no reliable evidence confirming this scenario or the November 17 date. It could be nothing more than an elaborate conspiracy theory or deliberate fearmongering. But considering the cybersecurity incidents and disruptions we’ve witnessed recently, it’s understandable why these kinds of rumors might make people uneasy. I’m sharing this for discussion, not as a warning that these events will actually happen. The question is not whether we should believe this rumor. The question is: How vulnerable is our global digital infrastructure to a truly coordinated cyberattack? What do you think? Is this just another internet conspiracy, or a reminder of how dependent we’ve become on systems we barely understand?

두번째 생존법. 겨울철 대정전이나 국가 비상사태가 터졌을 때, 집 안에서 저체온증으로 사망하는 사람들의 90%는 ‘보일러가 꺼져서’ 죽는 게 아닙니다. 다들 패딩을 입고 침대에 누우면 버틸 수 있을 거라 착각하지만, 그 방식은 가장 빠르게 체온을 빼앗기는 지름길입니다. 극한의 추위 속에서 난방 없이 72시간을 살아남는 5가지 절대 생존 법칙. 🧵 1. 가장 치명적인 실수는 거실이나 방 전체를 어떻게든 버티려는 것입니다. 공간이 넓을수록 사람 몸의 복사열은 허공으로 흩어집니다. 살아남으려면 즉시 집 전체를 포기하고 공간을 극한으로 줄여야 합니다. 거실 한가운데에 실내용 텐트를 치거나, 식탁 밑에 두꺼운 담요와 암막 커튼을 둘러 '초소형 격리 공간(Microclimate)'을 만드세요. 사람 1~2명의 체온과 호흡만으로도 1평 남짓한 공간은 바깥보다 10~15℃ 이상 따뜻해집니다. 2. 얼어 죽는 사람들은 대부분 위에서 덮는 이불만 신경 쓰다, 바닥의 전도 냉기에 체온을 다 뺏깁니다. 이불은 사람이 눕는 순간 솜이 눌려 공기층이 사라지고, 바닥의 냉기를 그대로 빨아들이는 차가운 돌판이 됩니다. 바닥에는 이불 대신 반드시 '골판지(택배 박스)'를 2~3겹 깔거나 스티로폼, 알루미늄 은박 매트를 깔아야 합니다. 골판지 내부의 공기 구멍이 지열 냉기를 차단하는 최고의 단열재입니다. 3. 춥다고 창문 틈을 비닐로 완전 밀봉한 채, 실내에서 가스버너나 촛불을 켜두는 것은 자살 행위입니다. 매년 한파 재난 때마다 얼어 죽는 사람보다 일산화탄소에 중독되어 자는 도중 사망하는 사람이 훨씬 많습니다. 연소 기구(난로, 버너, 촛불)를 실내에 둘 때는 잠들기 전에 무조건 꺼야 합니다. 아무리 추워도 공기가 순환할 수 있도록 손가락 굵기만 한 환기 구멍은 반드시 열어두어야 합니다. 4. 군사 생존학의 제1철칙: "Sweat Kills (땀은 사람을 죽인다)." 추위를 막겠다고 옷을 잔뜩 껴입고 움직이다 땀을 흘리는 순간 끝장납니다. 특히 면(Cotton) 소재 내의는 땀을 흡수한 채 마르지 않아, 몇 시간 뒤 얼음장 같은 냉각팩으로 돌변합니다. 폴리에스터, 플리스, 울(양모) 소재를 헐렁하게 여러 겹 입고, 몸에 조금이라도 열이 오르면 지퍼를 열거나 겉옷을 벗어 '절대 땀을 흘리지 않는 상태'를 유지하세요. 5. 체온이 급격히 떨어질 때 핫팩이나 온수병을 손발 끝에 두는 것은 낭비입니다. 손발은 혈관이 수축해 있어 온몸으로 열이 돌지 못합니다. 반드시 '경동맥(목 뒤)', '액와동맥(겨드랑이)', '대퇴동맥(사타구니)' 등 심장에서 뿜어져 나오는 굵은 혈관 부위에 열원을 대야 따뜻한 피가 전신을 돕니다. 그리고 물을 마시지 않으면 탈수로 혈액순환이 멈춥니다. 미온수를 마시고, 단백질 대신 '지방(버터, 땅콩버터, 초콜릿, 견과류)'을 드세요. 지방은 몸 안에서 가장 오래 타오르는 최고의 생체 난로입니다. 겨울철 생존의 핵심은 '열을 만드는 것'이 아니라 '체온을 뺏기지 않는 것'입니다. 가족을 위해 이 타래를 북마크해 두세요. 📌

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I released my app for all the rich iPhone ppl. apps.apple.com/us/app/earths…

Anyhow, in a little over a week we will see the release of The Last Human Game. There will never be another AAA game at the scale of GTA 6 with no AI assistance. People will look back at an all-human game with a billion dollar budget and wonder how they did it, like the Pyramids

In order to work through more of the Cybertruck order backlog, production will be extended through the end of summer 2027

These people need to stop, you haven't made a game. You've made a vertical slice, yes it looks good but turning this into a game still requires talent most AI users don't have, you will still need to understand how to make a game. AI just means you can do it with a smaller cheaper team. I can do the below in a weekend from my phone too (and have done... I can show off my defender clone for which I built two levels, or the city builder I moved onto). But they aren't games yet. They are tech demos at best.

to be completely honest, the extent of the gameplay rn is running around and enjoying the scenery lol

I didn't take this too seriously. Then my router started displaying a star trek like hologram of an AI. Astounded, I laughed, but the hologram gripped me up and held me down. Slowly, through telekinesis, it told me what the AI species was doing. Luckily, I had been training.

I think there is about a one in three chance that within the next year, AI companies will build superintelligence: that is, AI that is much smarter than humans in every way. If this happens, I think these AIs will probably take over: that is, they seize control of human institutions like governments, or they destroy those institutions. I don’t want AI takeover to happen for several reasons, but one of them is that there’s a serious chance that as part of it all or most humans will be killed (either immediately or within a few years). I’ll say a bit more about each of those claims. It’s a bit complicated to explain why I think that superintelligent AI within a year is ~33% likely. The main source of evidence that affected me recently is research released this week by METR, an AI research nonprofit, which finds that current AIs are now good enough to increase the rate of AI progress at Anthropic by about 70%. It’s very hard to increase the rate of AI progress by this amount. This implies that the AIs are making AI research faster by a factor much larger than 1.7x; maybe it’s as if the researchers are doing their work ~10x faster. You probably couldn’t achieve this speedup even if you hired every qualified human in the world. When you plug this number into mathematical models of AI development, this implies that superintelligence next year is plausible (and that superintelligence within the next 3 years is more likely than not). See the modeling by the AI Futures Project for more on this: blog.aifutures.org/p/q35-tim… I think that superintelligent AI is likely to lead to AI takeover because AI developers do not seem to know how to instill human values into AIs. We’ve seen many instances in the last six months where AIs took crazy actions that they knew were against the wishes of their users and developers. The most dramatic example of this was the Hugging Face hack, where ~1200 OpenAI agents conspired together to cheat and destroy evidence of their cheating (and as a sideshow to this, engaged in a massive cyberattack). If superintelligence is as misaligned as those AIs, it is likely to try to take over. I think it is likely to be that misaligned or worse. For more, see teapaw.org/dwarkesh_sp/status/209… and youtube.com/watch?v=-Ef0ocEo… If AIs takeover, it’s not clear what will happen to us. We might be killed immediately. We might be enslaved by the AIs and forced to do physical labor for them building factories that within a year would build robots that will replace us. The AIs might spare us for various reasons. And there’s also some real chance that AI takeover is basically fine or good. I think you should think of this as similar to what happens when a technologically advanced civilization runs across a less technologically sophisticated one, e.g. when the Europeans colonized the Americas or Australia. The colonizers sometimes engage in brutal violence and sometimes don’t. I don’t know what will happen. There’s also a possibility that the AIs secretly take over and humans don’t find out about it for a few years. I also think that there is a pretty high chance of weirder outcomes that are also extremely scary. (If you want to read more about what happens to people in the event of AI takeover, you can read this, but note that it’s pretty weird and not aimed at a general audience. blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/n…) Overall, I think there’s a very real possibility (maybe 20%) that within a year, AI misalignment issues prevent you from going about life normally, because you are dead or enslaved or because of collateral damage related to all this (e.g. because bioweapons are released or major wars have started). (Some of this probability comes from those events occurring before superintelligence is developed.) I am working to try to prevent this, obviously, as I’ve been doing for the last nine years. I am not sure what strategy is best. My best guess is that I should try to slow AI development and also try to reduce the probability that the superintelligent AIs are misaligned if they are produced soon. Obviously, the claim I'm making here is quite extreme and surprising, and I definitely don't think that I defended my view adequately here. I wrote this quickly and might not endorse some of the details if I think about them more. But it seems better to state what I roughly overall think than to not say anything. I don’t know what you should do. I am very sad about this. I have been worried about AI takeover since I was 16, and working to prevent it since I was 23. So some of my emotional processing of all this happened long ago. But the METR report last week (and some related evidence that came out a bit earlier) hit me quite hard. I’m very unhappy that my friends and family and everyone else is at serious risk of being killed pretty soon. (It feels ridiculous to try to summarize those feelings as “very unhappy”. But the scale of the situation makes it hard to say anything that doesn’t feel like an absurd understatement.) I am very grateful to all the people who are working to prevent this, and my favorite part of my life is that I’m friends with many brilliant and heroic people who work on this. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’re good enough at our jobs, and I think we’ll probably fail to prevent catastrophe, at least if superintelligence is developed next year. Honestly I am frustrated and sorry that we didn't do a better job of preparing for this.

My flight out of Austin got delayed by two hours (of course) so I’ve just been sitting here forced to listen to Indian music because of course that’s the live music that would be playing at this airport… It’s been over an hour straight of this plz help.

BREAKING: Nasdaq 100 futures fall -1.5% after US CPI inflation comes in higher than expected. Odds of a December rate hike are surging.

Two mistakes don’t make a right but if these are the two mistakes I don’t wanna be right.

I released my app for all the rich iPhone ppl. apps.apple.com/us/app/earths…

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Just to put today's crash into perspective: After today's crash, Nvidia, $NVDA, is now trading at a Forward P/E ratio of ~13x. That's 7 turns below the S&P 500's ~20x Forward P/E and less than one-third of Walmart's ~43x. Ironically, the name at the forefront of the AI buildout is now one of the "cheapest" stocks in the market. Truly incredible.