@clockwork_parts

interested in time, energy, and #bitcoin

 Los Angeles
clockworkpartners.com
Joined October 2020
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to visualize bitcoin's cyclicality alongside other data, back out its power-law growth. a year-over-year example (date, bitcoin network age, price): 2021-11-21, 12.9 yr, $59.0k 2022-11-20, 13.9 yr, $16.2k ($16.2k / $59.0k)^(1/6) * (12.9yr / 13.9yr) = 0.75 YoY and chart:
clockwork · partners
@clockwork_parts24 Jul 2023
Replying to @clockwork_parts
3. the above suggest considering the age of the bitcoin network as multiplicative rather than additive, i.e. using a logarithmic axis. the gray line illustrates power-law growth using round-number parameter values.
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1. the average age of the stock of bitcoin has grown in proportion to the age of the bitcoin network. this suggests using a relative lookback period rather than a fixed (absolute) period.
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8. these charts are intended to frame bitcoin's growth rather than to support making precise predictions. let's see how well this approach frames bitcoin's growth over the next few years. see detailed descriptions at clockworkpartners.com/price/
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9. feedback is welcome. s/o @coinmetrics (on-chain and price data) and @zorinaq (historical price data). cc @dhruvbansal (hodl waves), @hcburger1 (power-law price), @ercwl (network age), @dylanleclair (realized price trends), @_Checkmatey_ (on-chain cycles)
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clockwork · partners retweeted
clockwork · partners
@clockwork_parts30 Jul 2021
Replying to @saifedean
one can highlight the (nominal) subsidy halving period by using polar coordinates:
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completed first reading and highly recommend! kudos @BitMEXResearch
Farside Insights@FarsideInsights15 Mar 2021
[1/3] New Book Published: The Blocksize War We are delighted to announce a new book. The book covers the major twists and turns of Bitcoin’s blocksize war, which raged for over 2 years, from 2015 to 2017 The book is available to purchase on Amazon now: amazon.com/dp/B08YQMC2WM

The Blocksize War: The battle over who controls Bitcoin’s protocol rules

This book covers Bitcoin’s blocksize war, which was waged from August 2015 to November 2017. On the surface the battle was about the amount of data allowed in each Bitcoin block, however it exposed...

amazon.com
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clockwork · partners retweeted
Stuart Thompson@StuartDAA29 Jan 2021
Gyre on fire! Yeats: "Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold"
clockwork · partners
@clockwork_parts7 Jan 2021
Replying to @LukeGromen @Darky999 @RaoulGMI @AshBennington
@profplum99 the "null hypothesis" in understanding bitcoin is that its growth continues in 2021 in a fashion well in line with its own history (charts below). the key question: will bitcoin "merely" overtake silver and gold, or will bitcoin also take a big chunk from bonds?
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clockwork · partners retweeted
clockwork · partners
@clockwork_parts7 Jan 2021
Replying to @LukeGromen @Darky999 @RaoulGMI @AshBennington
@profplum99 the "null hypothesis" in understanding bitcoin is that its growth continues in 2021 in a fashion well in line with its own history (charts below). the key question: will bitcoin "merely" overtake silver and gold, or will bitcoin also take a big chunk from bonds?
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