Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data. Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen. Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However: - credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years. - more people are paying rent via credit card. - average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago - class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month. - starting to see these renters move down a tier Class B: - simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous. - fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50% - considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets. Class C: - looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up - more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades - tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it - wage growth has not kept up Lenders: - some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff. - a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses. - number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall. - data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over. I asked “how do you think this ends?” “Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”

For most work I have ever done, editing is 90% of the effort. AI doesn’t change that. Instead of “did you make this with AI?” you should really ask “do you stand by every word?” Real slop is people saying things they don’t mean.

5 MILLION PLAYERS IN JUST 9 DAYS!!! 😭🇳🇬👑🔥 WHAT IS HAPPENINGGGG!!! 🚀🚀🚀 We just crossed 5,000,000 players on Lagos Life! 👑 5M+ players 🔥 110,000+ playing right now 🌍 34 MILLION+ visits ALL IN JUST 9 DAYS!!! What started as an idea is becoming something bigger than I ever imagined. To every single person playing, sharing, building, and making noise about Lagos Life, THANK YOU! ❤️ And the craziest part? WE ARE JUST GETTING STARTED! 5M DOWN. 10M NEXT! 🚀👑🇳🇬 lagoslife.app/stats #LagosLife

Never been to the opera before? Now’s your chance. We’re giving away 70,000 free tickets to the @MetOpera at the iconic Lincoln Center. Go to on.nyc.gov/opera to enter the lottery. There’s not a bad seat in the house.

AML/KYC are a big moat, especially for the biggest banks. Their cost of compliance is diffused along millions of clients (and trillions in balance sheet). The big banks will never campaign to eliminate it because it gives an advantage to the smaller ones.

Following the amazing reaction to the Marble Curriculum yesterday, we've decided to make it open source 🛰️👇 Everything a child learns in primary school. 1,590 concepts. 3,221 connections across 8 subjects, from Math and Science to Computing and Life Skills. Anchored in the US and UK curriculums, standard by standard (NGSS, Common Core, DfE). What you will find in the repo: every concept as structured JSON with its age band and the evidence a child must show to master it. Every prerequisite link marked hard or soft, with a written rationale. It's a true DAG you can compute learning paths on. Open license, you can build whatever you want with it. Now is a unique time in history to be building in education. Getting AI and kids education right is likely one of the hardest and most important problems to crack over the next decade and we need as many smart and creative minds behind it. We think a common solid basis, accessible to all and that can be built upon, is critical to move fast. That's why we're making this curriculum open source. It's not perfect but we know it's a robust basis, and we believe that sharing it openly is the fastest way to progress in this field. If you're building in education, share this around you and tell us in comments if you find this useful and if you want to contribute. We'll keep working and investing on it @withmarbleapp. Credit goes to @guillaume_boni for building this. I just made it look pretty. Links below 👇