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Good morning, Investors.
Two months ago I was telling you $MSFT was the play. One month later it was $META .
MSFT is up over 40% since, META over 20%.
That is not me chasing headlines, that is the same process every time. Find the asset the market is sleeping on before the crowd catches on.
Right now that asset is $AVGO . I am calling it undervalued today, the same way I called the other two before they moved.
Let's get it.
bitcoin:native chart update.
Bitcoin is sitting right on the $80,400 support. This is a 50/50 setup.
The key level is $84,158. It has to be reclaimed. Once Bitcoin breaks above that zone, I think the correction is over and we'll see new local highs.
Holding $80,400 is the first step. From there $82,750 is the next level on the way up.
Losing $80,400 means a drop toward $78,100 is likely. Below that the next major support sits at $75,000.
Tonight's Fed decision could be the trigger for either side.
Good morning Investors,
$GOOG trades 22% below its all time high. And tomorrow it reports earnings.
The market is punishing Google for its massive AI spending. $44.9 billion in capex last quarter alone. Free cash flow turned negative.
But look at what that money is building.
Last quarter Google posted record revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year over year. Google Cloud grew 82% to $24.8 billion. And it’s not just growing. Its operating margin hit 35.6%.
That’s not a company losing the AI race. That’s a company winning it.
Tonight after the bell → the Street expects around $127 billion in revenue. If Cloud keeps delivering, the 22% discount won’t last long.
Stay bullish.
Shepard retweeted
$HOOD is still holding the uptrend.
The stock bounced right off the $93 support today and is trading up 3.5% at $96.
Two bullish paths from here. A clean move toward the $124.72 resistance. Reclaiming $140.30 would open the way for new highs.
Or one more dip into $83.79 first. The stock can fall there without breaking the uptrend.
Uptrend stays intact as long as $83.79 holds. Below that the next major support sits at $63.47.
$HOOD is still holding the uptrend.
The stock bounced right off the $93 support today and is trading up 3.5% at $96.
Two bullish paths from here. A clean move toward the $124.72 resistance. Reclaiming $140.30 would open the way for new highs.
Or one more dip into $83.79 first. The stock can fall there without breaking the uptrend.
Uptrend stays intact as long as $83.79 holds. Below that the next major support sits at $63.47.
Shepard retweeted
$SOFI just delivered.
EPS: $0.18 vs. $0.17 expected
Revenue: $1.37B vs $1.26B expected
Revenue up 44% year over year. EPS up 64%.
That’s a clear beat on both lines.
Premarket is reacting strongly.
Good morning, Investors.
Last quarter $SOFI posted record revenue of $1.2B, grew members 35% to 15.8M and raised its revenue guidance.
The stock dropped almost 9% that same day.
That's not a broken business. That's an impatient market. 51% of new products are now opened by existing members. People don't just sign up for SoFi, they come back and buy more. The ones who understood that held through the noise.
Tomorrow before the open, Q3 numbers drop → time to see who read it right.
Shepard retweeted
$GOOG reports earnings tomorrow.
The stock trades 22% below its all time high. With fundamentals still solid, I see it as one of the strongest buys in the market right now.
It’s fighting for the $314 support. It closed just below yesterday and is back slightly above in premarket.
This is a true 50/50 setup.
Holding $314 and reclaiming $332.82 opens the way back toward $360.61. A break above that level would bring new all time highs above $405 into play.
Losing $314 brings the range between $270 and $314 into play. But I don’t think we’ll test the $270 area.
Earnings will decide which path we take.
Shepard retweeted
Good morning, Investors.
$HOOD trades almost 40% below its high of $153.86. And tonight it reports earnings.
Painful chart. Strong business.
Last quarter Robinhood posted record revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% year over year. EPS jumped 48%. Net deposits hit a record $22 billion and Gold subscribers reached a record 4.8 million.
13 business lines now generate $100 million or more in annualized revenue. That’s not a trading app anymore. That’s a financial platform.
The Street expects around $0.55 EPS and $1.42 billion in revenue tonight.
After the bell → the numbers decide if the market was too pessimistic.
Make it count.
$GOOG reports earnings tomorrow.
The stock trades 22% below its all time high. With fundamentals still solid, I see it as one of the strongest buys in the market right now.
It’s fighting for the $314 support. It closed just below yesterday and is back slightly above in premarket.
This is a true 50/50 setup.
Holding $314 and reclaiming $332.82 opens the way back toward $360.61. A break above that level would bring new all time highs above $405 into play.
Losing $314 brings the range between $270 and $314 into play. But I don’t think we’ll test the $270 area.
Earnings will decide which path we take.
$SOFI just delivered.
EPS: $0.18 vs. $0.17 expected
Revenue: $1.37B vs $1.26B expected
Revenue up 44% year over year. EPS up 64%.
That’s a clear beat on both lines.
Premarket is reacting strongly.
Good morning, Investors.
Last quarter $SOFI posted record revenue of $1.2B, grew members 35% to 15.8M and raised its revenue guidance.
The stock dropped almost 9% that same day.
That's not a broken business. That's an impatient market. 51% of new products are now opened by existing members. People don't just sign up for SoFi, they come back and buy more. The ones who understood that held through the noise.
Tomorrow before the open, Q3 numbers drop → time to see who read it right.
Good morning, Investors.
$HOOD trades almost 40% below its high of $153.86. And tonight it reports earnings.
Painful chart. Strong business.
Last quarter Robinhood posted record revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% year over year. EPS jumped 48%. Net deposits hit a record $22 billion and Gold subscribers reached a record 4.8 million.
13 business lines now generate $100 million or more in annualized revenue. That’s not a trading app anymore. That’s a financial platform.
The Street expects around $0.55 EPS and $1.42 billion in revenue tonight.
After the bell → the numbers decide if the market was too pessimistic.
Make it count.
Shepard retweeted
Good morning, Investors.
Last quarter $SOFI posted record revenue of $1.2B, grew members 35% to 15.8M and raised its revenue guidance.
The stock dropped almost 9% that same day.
That's not a broken business. That's an impatient market. 51% of new products are now opened by existing members. People don't just sign up for SoFi, they come back and buy more. The ones who understood that held through the noise.
Tomorrow before the open, Q3 numbers drop → time to see who read it right.
Shepard retweeted
Everyone is scared of further market selloffs, but the current data is already pointing in another direction.
The 10Y Treasury yield is cooling down.
It dropped below 5% and closed the week at 4.9%. A clear pullback from the peak at 5.36%.
Some analysts believe yields have already topped. If that's true, it's a big deal. Lower yields make stocks more attractive again. Whether this was really the top remains to be seen. But falling below 5% is a positive signal for now.
At the same time, the entire AI sector got hit hard over the past weeks. I see that as positive too. The biggest profit-taking has already happened. Without a fundamental reason, the market shouldn't fall much further and should find its footing soon.
And here's what most people miss. The selling is mainly happening in the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 is only about 3% below its all-time high. That's far away from any reason to panic.
Let's take a look at the chart.
$SPY is trading just above the $755 support. A pullback toward the $729 area is possible and would still keep the bigger uptrend intact.
$749 is the first level to watch. Holding it would mean a faster recovery.
Losing $728 would open the door for a bigger correction.
On the upside, $780 is the level to break for new highs.
Wednesday's Fed meeting will be interesting too. The market prices a 90.6% chance of no rate change. I think that's already priced in. The real question is whether Kevin Warsh gives away any direction at all.
If not, the meeting should leave markets pretty unimpressed. And the market will find its own way.
Stay bullish until proven otherwise.
Good morning, Investors.
Last quarter $SOFI posted record revenue of $1.2B, grew members 35% to 15.8M and raised its revenue guidance.
The stock dropped almost 9% that same day.
That's not a broken business. That's an impatient market. 51% of new products are now opened by existing members. People don't just sign up for SoFi, they come back and buy more. The ones who understood that held through the noise.
Tomorrow before the open, Q3 numbers drop → time to see who read it right.
Shepard retweeted
The coming week might be the biggest earnings week of the year.
Here are 9 of the most important companies reporting:
1/ $AMZN reports Thursday
The stock is sitting right on the $245 support. My main scenario: this level breaks and price drops into the $226 zone. That's where I expect a base to form without breaking the bigger uptrend.
Losing $226 would open the door for a bigger correction.
On the upside $263 is the level to reclaim. Holding $245 through earnings would make that the faster path.
Everyone is scared of further market selloffs, but the current data is already pointing in another direction.
The 10Y Treasury yield is cooling down.
It dropped below 5% and closed the week at 4.9%. A clear pullback from the peak at 5.36%.
Some analysts believe yields have already topped. If that's true, it's a big deal. Lower yields make stocks more attractive again. Whether this was really the top remains to be seen. But falling below 5% is a positive signal for now.
At the same time, the entire AI sector got hit hard over the past weeks. I see that as positive too. The biggest profit-taking has already happened. Without a fundamental reason, the market shouldn't fall much further and should find its footing soon.
And here's what most people miss. The selling is mainly happening in the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 is only about 3% below its all-time high. That's far away from any reason to panic.
Let's take a look at the chart.
$SPY is trading just above the $755 support. A pullback toward the $729 area is possible and would still keep the bigger uptrend intact.
$749 is the first level to watch. Holding it would mean a faster recovery.
Losing $728 would open the door for a bigger correction.
On the upside, $780 is the level to break for new highs.
Wednesday's Fed meeting will be interesting too. The market prices a 90.6% chance of no rate change. I think that's already priced in. The real question is whether Kevin Warsh gives away any direction at all.
If not, the meeting should leave markets pretty unimpressed. And the market will find its own way.
Stay bullish until proven otherwise.
The coming week might be the biggest earnings week of the year.
Here are 9 of the most important companies reporting:
1/ $AMZN reports Thursday
The stock is sitting right on the $245 support. My main scenario: this level breaks and price drops into the $226 zone. That's where I expect a base to form without breaking the bigger uptrend.
Losing $226 would open the door for a bigger correction.
On the upside $263 is the level to reclaim. Holding $245 through earnings would make that the faster path.
10/ $MA reports earnings on Thursday.
And this one is running its own rally. No AI hype needed.
Mastercard just broke above the $601 resistance that capped the stock for more than a year. Smart money noticed early: Bill Ackman's Pershing Square opened a new position last quarter.
My main scenario: a retest of $601 from above, then continuation of the uptrend.
Falling back below $601 would send the stock back into its old range toward $546.
Quality doesn't need a narrative. It just needs time.
