AI & prediction markets | market research DMs open
Joined February 2025
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WHO THE HELL APPROVED THIS AIRPLANE DESIGN?
18.5M views. 183K likes. Just 8 seconds.
Someone used AI to create a massive multi-storey passenger plane landing at an airport.
And somehow it looks disturbingly believable.
→ multiple passenger levels stacked on top of each other
→ an enormous aircraft descending toward an ordinary runway
→ realistic lighting and camera perspective that make the whole thing look like actual airport footage
imagine being at the airport and seeing THIS coming in for landing.
the craziest part is how easily AI can turn a completely ridiculous idea into something that looks almost real.
I'd love to experiment with designs like this using AI video tools in @Picsart
now be serious. would you actually get on this plane?
cinnamina retweeted
tomorrow is the big day 👀
Spain v England on Sunday
my call is both teams to score and no better place to run it up than on @parimatch
sitting on 1.6 odds, it's actually a steal
last time it ended Spain 3 England 2 and it was one of those games where both sides have attacking depth
spain scored early after an Guehi mistake at the back
and england turned it around with quick moves from Gordon before spain came back again
mistakes in build up, chances on the break, and goals at both ends
i expect that pattern again
spain will press high and try to force errors
england sit 3 points behind with a win to chase, so they have every reason to attack instead of sit deep
that's enough opportunities for chances at both ends, even if one team ends up on top
plus let's not forget Yamal will be available for this match source: @FabrizioRomano
link: parimatch.com
market: parimatch.now/en/events/spai…
sources: @FabrizioRomano @TouchlineX
$3.9 million, that's what polymarket says it's returning after the october 29th attack on its international platform
$2.7M refunded 726 drained wallets, while $1.19M compensated 5,500+ affected users
by october 30, 689 wallets were fully refunded, with the rest under verification
sources @TheRecord, @TheHackersNews
but a hack is a different risk from betting
one habit helps with both:
⤷ to know which money is for playing
⤷ and which isn't for betting
that's what Vault on @parimatch is for
it acts as balance separation, a second balance inside your account for money you don't want to bet
there are top up and withdraw tabs, taking money back out of Vault is an internal transfer, not the same as withdrawing to an external wallet
here's it's use
after a win, move part of it into vault so your next bet can't touch it, helps to separate money you don't want to bet with
here's how to find it:
⤷ log in
⤷ go to account,
⤷ then vault, below deposit and withdraw
image guide shown below
vault is separate from your playing balance, only eligible cash can go in, and any wagering requirements must already be completed
explore it:parimatch.com
vault:parimatch-africa2.net/en/my-…
cinnamina retweeted
Minnesota’s Somali fraud might not be $1 billion.
They’re now saying it could hit $8 billion.That’s what came out after people started digging. Feeding programs, daycares, healthcare companies. A lot of them weren’t real. Empty buildings, fake kids, the same people billing multiple programs at once. All of it happening in Minnesota under Tim Walz.$8 billion. From one state. And they’re still trying to figure out the full number.We work, we pay taxes, and this is where a chunk of it went. Watch the clip.
Stephen A. Smith said he cannot understand how the Clintons and Obamas left office worth over $100 million. Clinton was a lawyer in Arkansas who grew up broke. Obama was a community organizer. Presidential salary never went above $450,000.
Clintons went from about $1.3 million before office to $120 million. Obamas went from $1.3 million to $70 million.
He asked how you enter to serve the people and leave exponentially richer. What do you think happens to that money.
cinnamina retweeted
THE BULLDOG REFUSED THE HAIRCUT AND GAVE ONE TO THE GROOMER INSTEAD
→ A bulldog on a grooming table shoves the groomer so hard he flies into the kennels
→ A second groomer steps in and the dog jumps up and hugs her
→ Next shot, she is face down on the table with the dog standing on her
→ The clippers are running through her hair, not his fur
207K likes and 16M views on the source
All of this is AI, and the physics are what sell it: the heavy body weight of the bulldog, the groomer's body flying into the cages, the paws pressing on her head and the clippers cutting through hair in close up.
Comic chaos with real bodies is one of the hardest things for AI video to hold together, and it stays consistent in the clip.
You can try Seedance 2.5 in @Picsart and build your own pet chaos scene
Which one of us would the bulldog groom next
cinnamina retweeted
it looks like a good day to try a pack on @trylimitless , so I tested something
i opened @PayBox inside my claude, asked it to send $2 in USDC on Base to my limitless account
i approved the transaction myself, and it landed in a couple of seconds
then I went through the fixtures and started building a pack:
Germany, Slovakia, Kosovo, Sweden and Andorra was supposed to be my pick butt
a plot twist
the minimum for a pack is $5 and I had about $2
so no pack today :( i still took one single trade instead
⤷ Andorra vs Gibraltar, Gibraltar YES at 13c
⤷ $1.90 in, average price at 14c
⤷ if it wins, it pays $13.10. that's 6.9x
⤷ if it doesn't, I lose the $1.90
it's a long shot, let's see what they have for me
what I loved most was me being able to
⤷ sending USDC through an AI to my prediction market wallet
i still double checked the address and network before approving tho
andd
⤷ the 6.9x on the screen is what I could win, not what I've won
i'll update you guys after the match :)
cinnamina retweeted
A BEAR IS COOKING SALMON NOW. HAS AI GONE TOO FAR?
3M views. 70K likes. 20 seconds.
Someone made an AI video of a bear casually preparing a salmon steak like it's just another day in the kitchen
A literal bear. Cooking fish.
And somehow 3 million people showed up to watch
→ the concept is ridiculous, but you understand it instantly
→ putting a wild animal in an ordinary human situation makes the scene even funnier
→ cooking videos are already addictive. apparently adding a bear makes them better
This is the kind of absurd scene I'd love to experiment with using AI video tools in @Picsart
we've officially reached the point where wildlife is making cooking content
at this point i'm just waiting for a bear to open a restaurant
cinnamina retweeted
Hey @grok, what sentence would you give this teenager if you were the judge?
A 14-year-old girl was shot in the back of the head by two boys she considered friends. They left her in a ditch, believing she would never be found alive.
But she survived.
Her name was Deserae Turner. And what she said to one of her attackers in court a year later made him break down in tears.
On February 16, 2017, 16-year-old Colter Peterson and his friend Jayzon Decker lured Deserae to a dry canal in Utah.
The plan was to kill her.
Peterson shot her in the back of the head at close range. Then the boys took her belongings and left.
Deserae lay there for nearly eight hours before two women found her.
She survived, but the bullet remained lodged in her skull. The damage left her with permanent disabilities. She struggled to walk, see, eat and even think clearly.
On February 1, 2018, Deserae came face to face with Peterson at his sentencing hearing.
She was sitting in a wheelchair. He was standing before the judge in handcuffs.
As she spoke, Peterson began to tremble and cry.
Then she looked directly at him and said:
“You shouldn’t have messed with me, because I am tougher than a bullet.”
But she wasn’t finished.
“Good luck in prison, and remember that because of you, my life is a prison.”
Then came the words that made the courtroom even heavier:
“Welcome to hell. I have been here for a year now.”
Peterson was sentenced to 15 years to life in prison. His accomplice, Jayzon Decker, also received 15 years to life for helping plan the attack.
Two boys tried to take her life. But when she finally faced them in court, she was the one who had the last words.
A BEAR IS COOKING SALMON NOW. HAS AI GONE TOO FAR?
3M views. 70K likes. 20 seconds.
Someone made an AI video of a bear casually preparing a salmon steak like it's just another day in the kitchen
A literal bear. Cooking fish.
And somehow 3 million people showed up to watch
→ the concept is ridiculous, but you understand it instantly
→ putting a wild animal in an ordinary human situation makes the scene even funnier
→ cooking videos are already addictive. apparently adding a bear makes them better
This is the kind of absurd scene I'd love to experiment with using AI video tools in @Picsart
we've officially reached the point where wildlife is making cooking content
at this point i'm just waiting for a bear to open a restaurant
GTA 6 ISN'T EVEN OUT YET AND AI IS ALREADY TAKING OVER VICE CITY
5.16M views. 357K likes. 30 seconds.
Someone made a GTA-inspired AI video and millions of people are already watching it.
Rockstar spent years building one of the most anticipated games in history, and now AI creators are making their own versions of Vice City before the game even drops.
the craziest part?
we're getting to a point where people have to stop and ask whether they're watching actual gameplay or something generated by AI.
and with GTA 6 around the corner, the timing is ridiculous.
30 seconds of fictional gameplay-style visuals. Millions of views. An entire audience obsessed with a game they haven't even played yet.
Imagine what happens when more creators start building their own cinematic worlds with tools like Fable 5.2 and @Picsart.
the next generation of AI creators is going to have way too much fun with this.
would you actually watch an AI-generated GTA series?
cinnamina retweeted
NYSE Group operates five equity exchanges in the US. Real-time data from all five is now available through the @PythNetwork Data Marketplace
That includes live bids and offers, executed trades, trading halts, and official closing prices
There’s a practical use case here for tokenized equities
A platform offering 24/7 exposure to US stocks needs to account for what happens on the underlying exchange during regular trading hours, and what happens when that exchange closes or halts trading
With NYSE BQT and Pyth’s 24/7 equity pricing, developers can work with both sets of information
One detail worth noting: NYSE still handles the data licensing directly. Pyth provides the distribution infrastructure
This is an interesting direction for $PYTH. The marketplace is expanding beyond price feeds into the distribution of exchange-originated market data
🇺🇸 Pyth is now an approved distributor of @NYSE market data.
Real-time top-of-book across five NYSE Group equity markets 🧵
cinnamina retweeted
okay i went deeper into the GTA VI markets
yesterday i was looking at how long PC players might have to wait
today i found people predicting what we’ll actually hear on the radio in Vice City
@parimatch has markets on whether songs like Pepas or Blinding Lights will play on an in-game radio station at launch
and the rules are surprisingly specific
the song has to actually play on an in-game radio station in the base game
menu music, background music outside the radio and tracks added later through DLC don’t count
so now i need to know:
what song are you betting makes it into GTA VI radio?
Market + Rules:
parimatch.com/predictions/ev…
PC PLAYERS ARE STILL IN THE WAITING ROOM
GTA VI launches on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S on November 19
but Rockstar still hasn’t announced a PC release date
and @parimatch traders clearly aren’t expecting a miracle
right now, the market gives GTA VI just a 10% chance of getting a full PC release by December 31, 2026
and the rules are pretty strict
for YES to win, the full commercial Windows version has to actually be available by 11:59 PM ET on December 31
an announcement, beta, early access, technical test or leaked build won’t count
the other deadlines tell the story too:
December 31, 2026 → 10%
March 31, 2027 → 23%
June 30, 2027 → 73%
December 31, 2027 → 88%
the real question now:
how long are PC players going to suffer?
Market:
parimatch.com/predictions/ev…
Source:
rockstargames.com/VI
cinnamina retweeted
Okay, just got a +50% deposit bonus from the daily wheel on @parimatch lol
Already received around $500 in bonuses this month and somehow there’s always something else to claim
Definitely not complaining about another 50%, just hoping I can actually make good use of it
Wish me luck clearing the wagering requirements, gonna need it
$500 in bonuses in just one month on Parimatch, and I still managed to miss one of their biggest bonus offers
That’s $500 from cashback, rakeback and other rewards alone, with $100 coming from cashback
But there’s something I didn’t mention before: a combined 750% deposit bonus across the first 5 deposits
200% on the first, 150% on the second, 125% on the third and fourth, and another 150% on the fifth
The offer is available with code 1saevv, entered during registration
global-pm.link/?serial=61378…
And that’s separate from the weekly $40K tournament, daily rewards, points shop and all the other bonuses I’ve already talked about
okay i went deeper into the GTA VI markets
yesterday i was looking at how long PC players might have to wait
today i found people predicting what we’ll actually hear on the radio in Vice City
@parimatch has markets on whether songs like Pepas or Blinding Lights will play on an in-game radio station at launch
and the rules are surprisingly specific
the song has to actually play on an in-game radio station in the base game
menu music, background music outside the radio and tracks added later through DLC don’t count
so now i need to know:
what song are you betting makes it into GTA VI radio?
Market + Rules:
parimatch.com/predictions/ev…
PC PLAYERS ARE STILL IN THE WAITING ROOM
GTA VI launches on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S on November 19
but Rockstar still hasn’t announced a PC release date
and @parimatch traders clearly aren’t expecting a miracle
right now, the market gives GTA VI just a 10% chance of getting a full PC release by December 31, 2026
and the rules are pretty strict
for YES to win, the full commercial Windows version has to actually be available by 11:59 PM ET on December 31
an announcement, beta, early access, technical test or leaked build won’t count
the other deadlines tell the story too:
December 31, 2026 → 10%
March 31, 2027 → 23%
June 30, 2027 → 73%
December 31, 2027 → 88%
the real question now:
how long are PC players going to suffer?
Market:
parimatch.com/predictions/ev…
Source:
rockstargames.com/VI
if you want to check out the markets yourself:
global-pm.link/?serial=61378…
promo code: STRAX
5
106
cinnamina retweeted
i've spent 85+ hours in the last 3 weeks staring at prediction markets
mostly reading resolution rules, watching order books move and understanding why prices moved and why they didn't
using:
⤷ polymarket, kalshi and limitless docs
⤷ UMA's oracle dispute page
⤷ polygonscan
⤷ youtube
⤷ claude
i'll add more later tho
and i do it without stress most times & i love it
that's how i know i picked the right niche and i'm still learning :)
how many hours have you spent learning yours?
i've spent more than 40-hour workweeks staring at onchain dashboards
mostly tracking wallets, looking at random transactions and trying to understand why certain things happened and why they didn't
using ↯
>defillama
>blockwork
>token terminal
>etherscan & solscan
>dune (free version)
>i'll add more later tho
and i do it without stress most times & i love it
+ that’s how i know i picked the right skill.
even though i haven't been posting about it that much 🤧
but how many hours have you spent learning yours?
cinnamina retweeted
$3.9 million, that's what polymarket says it's returning after the october 29th attack on its international platform
$2.7M refunded 726 drained wallets, while $1.19M compensated 5,500+ affected users
by october 30, 689 wallets were fully refunded, with the rest under verification
sources @TheRecord, @TheHackersNews
but a hack is a different risk from betting
one habit helps with both:
⤷ to know which money is for playing
⤷ and which isn't for betting
that's what Vault on @parimatch is for
it acts as balance separation, a second balance inside your account for money you don't want to bet
there are top up and withdraw tabs, taking money back out of Vault is an internal transfer, not the same as withdrawing to an external wallet
here's it's use
after a win, move part of it into vault so your next bet can't touch it, helps to separate money you don't want to bet with
here's how to find it:
⤷ log in
⤷ go to account,
⤷ then vault, below deposit and withdraw
image guide shown below
vault is separate from your playing balance, only eligible cash can go in, and any wagering requirements must already be completed
explore it:parimatch.com
vault:parimatch-africa2.net/en/my-…
🤝 Paid partnership
I just used my spent my evening playing Pulse on @parimatch using demo money so i would explain it to you 🫶
it's actually a 60 second game, and the rules explain it better than the chart does
here's what it's about
you bet on whether BTC finishes the round above or below its starting price, that starting price is called the strike, the fixed level your bet is measured against
two buttons, up or down, each showing a max multiplier that changes with the table. When I opened a round, up showed max 3.3x and down showed max 2.7x.
then you pick a risk level, either x2, x5 or x10
higher risk means your win grows faster, but the burn point gets closer, burn means the price swings against your call before the round ends, and the stake is lost
you can cash out any time at the current multiplier, or hold to the end of the round
the round starts at the real BTC price, and that fixes your strike, from there, the price follows a random path that was locked before bets opened
a hash of it is published in advance, so you can check in the Provably Fair section that it wasn't changed mid round
so only the starting price is real BTC, The 60 seconds after that are not live BTC
limits I saw: bets from 0.10 to 10 USD, max win 2,000 USD, RTP 98%
what rtp means is the share of all stakes a game pays back to players on average over time
you can access it by going to the menu, then crypto games
link to the game in comments :)
cinnamina retweeted
PC PLAYERS ARE STILL IN THE WAITING ROOM
GTA VI launches on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S on November 19
but Rockstar still hasn’t announced a PC release date
and @parimatch traders clearly aren’t expecting a miracle
right now, the market gives GTA VI just a 10% chance of getting a full PC release by December 31, 2026
and the rules are pretty strict
for YES to win, the full commercial Windows version has to actually be available by 11:59 PM ET on December 31
an announcement, beta, early access, technical test or leaked build won’t count
the other deadlines tell the story too:
December 31, 2026 → 10%
March 31, 2027 → 23%
June 30, 2027 → 73%
December 31, 2027 → 88%
the real question now:
how long are PC players going to suffer?
Market:
parimatch.com/predictions/ev…
Source:
rockstargames.com/VI