Breaking down Arthur's @CryptoHayes new essay - Ski Cut - a reflection on what happened in the past 3 weeks and what will likely happen next. 1/ 🇺🇸Trump’s April 2nd “Liberation Day” wasn’t just about tariffs — it was a ski-cut on the steep slope of global markets. A maximalist tariff policy triggered a volatility avalanche, measured by the MOVE Index hitting 172. 2/ 🏔️ Trump’s tariff shock was intentionally extreme — a “persistent weak layer” in avalanche terms. Markets puked. Stocks dropped, MOVE surged, and the crypto market cratered. But within days, Team Trump moderated: → 90-day pause for all but China → Dovish signals from the Fed and Treasury 3/ 📉 The shock and pivot combo sent a clear message: → Volatility this high is unacceptable → They will intervene → Bitcoin bottomed at $74.5K amid the chaos The first “policy panic pivot” of 2025 had begun. 4/ 💡 The Treasury’s secret weapon? Buybacks Not QE, but powerful: → Issue new debt → Repurchase old off-the-run bonds → Boost prices → Narrow basis → Free up capital for RV funds to lever back in 5/ This reflexive cycle: 🔁 Buybacks → lower volatility → lower margin needs → more leverage → stabilize bond market = soft form of easing, executed by Treasury instead of Fed 💰 Add liquidity without needing Powell. 6/ 🎯 Why it matters: → RV funds are now the marginal buyer of Treasuries post-2022 (after Russia sanctions spooked sovereigns). → Without their leverage, Treasury auctions would demand much higher yields. 7/ 📊 Historical echo: In 3Q2022, Yellen’s bill-heavy issuance unlocked $2.5T in liquidity from RRP → Bitcoin rallied 6x. In 2Q2025, Bessent is doing the same via buybacks → Bitcoin bottomed at $74.5K. 8/ 💥 The Macro Playbook Now: • Treasury needs RV funds to max leverage • Fed quietly eases (e.g. slowing QT) • Treasury expands buybacks → All add dollar liquidity → Bitcoin is the net beneficiary 9/ 🟡 Gold performs in chaos 🟠 Bitcoin performs after policy response They now decouple from tech stocks — digital & physical anti-establishment assets. 10/ 🧠 Market takeaway: When Trump shouts tariffs, volatility spikes. When volatility spikes, Treasury & Fed respond. When they respond, liquidity rises. And Bitcoin levitates. 11/ 📈 Once BTC breaks $110K, we enter AltSzn. Only tokens with real yield + cashflow will survive the next wave. That’s where the rotation will go. Our bags are packed. 12/ Final thought: Markets are waking up to this: → The Treasury, not the Fed, is now the main liquidity provider → Policy panic is the new bull catalyst → Bitcoin is the new market signal Original article🔗 open.substack.com/pub/crypto…